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A More General Framework for Understanding Atlantic Hurricane Variability and Trends
Open accessAbstract
Atlantic hurricane variability on decadal and interannual time scales is reconsidered in a framework based on a leading mode of coupled ocean-atmosphere variability known as the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM). It is shown that a large part of the variability of overall “hurricane activity,” which depends on the number of storms in a season, their duration, and their intensity, can be explained by systematic shifts in the cyclogenesis regions. These shifts are strongly correlated with the AMM on interannual as well as multidecadal time scales. It is suggested that the AMM serves to unify a number of previously documented relationships between hurricanes and Atlantic regional climate variability.
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“In addition, fluctuations in the tropical Atlantic north-south SST gradient (i.e., the Meridional Mode) have been linked to hurricane activity and to changes in rainfall over Africa and South America [Kossin and Vimont, 2007;Hastenrath and Heller, 1977].”
From Impacts of canonical and Modoki El Niño on tropical Atlantic SST (2014) · cites this paper as Kossin and Vimont, 2007
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Metadata
- Authors
- Kossin, J. P., & Vimont, D. J.
- Affiliations
- University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
- Corresponding author
- Kossin, James P.
- Venue
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
- Publisher
- American Meteorological Society
- Published
- 2007-11
- Volume
- 88
- Issue
- 11
- Pages
- 1767-1782
- ISSN
- 0003-0007 (ISSN-L)
- 1520-0477
- OpenAlex
- W2034219934
- Cited by
- 277
- References
- 120
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 9 · 2023: 15 · 2022: 16 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 30 · 2019: 13 · 2018: 12 · 2017: 15 · 2016: 19 · 2015: 19 · 2014: 16 · 2013: 10 · 2012: 12
- FWCI
- 13.12
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (0614812, 0435694)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Keywords
- Atlantic hurricanes, Atlantic Meridional Mode, decadal variability, interannual variability, multidecadal variability
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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