The DOI matches its Crossref record; 33 of the 33 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Scaling Potential Evapotranspiration with Greenhouse Warming
Open accessAbstract
Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is a supply-independent measure of the evaporative demand of a terrestrial climate—of basic importance in climatology, hydrology, and agriculture. Future increases in PET from greenhouse warming are often cited as key drivers of global trends toward drought and aridity. The present work computes recent and “business as usual” future Penman–Monteith PET fields at 3-hourly resolution in 13 modern global climate models. The percentage change in local annual-mean PET over the upcoming century is almost always positive, modally low double-digit in magnitude, usually increasing with latitude, yet quite divergent between models. These patterns are understood as follows. In every model, the global field of PET percentage change is found to be dominated by the direct, positive effects of constant-relative-humidity warming (via increasing vapor deficit and increasing Clausius–Clapeyron slope). This direct-warming term accurately scales as the PET-weighted (warm-season daytime) local warming, times 5%–6% °C−1 (related to the Clausius–Clapeyron equation), times an analytic factor ranging from about 0.25 in warm climates to 0.75 in cold climates, plus a small correction. With warming of several degrees, this product is of low double-digit magnitude, and the strong temperature dependence gives the latitude dependence. Similarly, the intermodel spread in the amount of warming gives most of the spread in this term. Additional spread in the total change comes from strong disagreement on radiation, relative humidity, and wind speed changes, which make smaller yet substantial contributions to the full PET percentage change fields.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
Climate change 2007: the physical science basis
Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Marquis, M. C., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., Miller, H. L., & Chen, Z. (2007) · Cited by 23,383
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., & Meehl, G. A. (2012) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-11-00094.1 · Cited by 14,052
An Approach toward a Rational Classification of Climate
Thornthwaite, C. W. (1948) · Geographical Review · doi:10.2307/210739 · Cited by 9,087
Natural evaporation from open water, bare soil and grass
Penman, H. L. (1948) · Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A. Mathematical and Physical Sciences · doi:10.1098/rspa.1948.0037 · Cited by 7,307
Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming
Held, I. M., & Soden, B. J. (2006) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli3990.1 · Cited by 4,959
Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models
Dai, A. (2013) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1633 · Cited by 4,762
Jansen, E. H., Overpeck, J. T., Briffa, K., Duplessy, J., Joos, F., Masson-Delmotte, Olago, D., Otto‐Bliesner, B. L., Peltier, W. R., Rahmstorf, S., et al. (2007) · UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) · Cited by 4,574
Meehl, G. A., Stocker, T. F., Collins, W. D., Friedlingstein, P., Gaye, A. T., Gregory, J. M., Kitoh, A., Knutti, R., Murphy, J. M., Noda, A., et al. (n.d.) · Bern Open Repository and Information System (University of Bern) · doi:10.48350/25539 · Cited by 3,726
Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America
Seager, R., Ting, M., Held, I., Kushnir, Y., Lu, J., Vecchi, G., Huang, H.-P., Harnik, N., Leetmaa, A., Lau, N.-C., et al. (2007) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1139601 · Cited by 2,073
Marlatt, W. E., Budyko, M. I., & Miller, D. H. (1975) · Journal of Range Management · doi:10.2307/3897455 · Cited by 1,619
Cited by
Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains
Cook, B. I., Ault, T. R., & Smerdon, J. E. (2015) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.1400082 · Cited by 1,445
Global warming and 21st century drying
Cook, B. I., Smerdon, J. E., Seager, R., & Coats, S. (2014) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2075-y · Cited by 1,070
Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under Different Levels of Warming
Naumann, G., Alfieri, L., Wyser, K., Mentaschi, L., Betts, R. A., Carrao, H., Spinoni, J., Vogt, J., & Feyen, L. (2018) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2017gl076521 · Cited by 829
Climate Change and Drought: From Past to Future
Cook, B. I., Mankin, J. S., & Anchukaitis, K. J. (2018) · Current Climate Change Reports · doi:10.1007/s40641-018-0093-2 · Cited by 729
Advances in understanding large‐scale responses of the water cycle to climate change
Allan, R. P., Barlow, M., Byrne, M. P., Cherchi, A., Douville, H., Fowler, H. J., Gan, T. Y., Pendergrass, A. G., Rosenfeld, D., Swann, A. L. S., et al. (2020) · Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1111/nyas.14337 · Cited by 687
Metadata
- Authors
- Scheff, J., & Frierson, D. M. W.
- Venue
- Journal of Climate
- Publisher
- American Meteorological Society
- Published
- 2014-02-10
- Volume
- 27
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 1539-1558
- ISSN
- 0894-8755 (ISSN-L)
- 1520-0442
- OpenAlex
- W2112716138
- Cited by
- 294
- References
- 33
- FWCI
- 11.84
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
How to cite
Cite CoChat for the checks on this page, and the paper for its own findings.
- This page
- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Scaling Potential Evapotranspiration with Greenhouse Warming. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00233.1
- The paper
- Scheff, J., & Frierson, D. M. W. (2014). Scaling Potential Evapotranspiration with Greenhouse Warming. Journal of Climate. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00233.1
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
