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Changes in the Distribution of Rain Frequency and Intensity in Response to Global Warming*

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Pendergrass, Angeline G., Hartmann, Dennis L.·2014·Journal of Climate

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Abstract

Changes in the frequency and intensity of rainfall are an important potential impact of climate change. Two modes of change, a shift and an increase, are applied to simulations of global warming with models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The response to CO2 doubling in the multimodel mean of CMIP5 daily rainfall is characterized by an increase of 1% K−1 at all rain rates and a shift to higher rain rates of 3.3% K−1. In addition to these increase and shift modes of change, some models also show a substantial increase in rainfall at the highest rain rates called the extreme mode of response to warming. In some models, this extreme mode can be shown to be associated with increases in grid-scale condensation or gridpoint storms.

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Authors: Pendergrass, A. G., & Hartmann, D. L.
Affiliations: University of Washington (US)
Corresponding author: Pendergrass, Angeline G.
ORCID: Pendergrass, Angeline G.
Hartmann, Dennis L.
Venue: Journal of Climate
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Published: 2014-11-04
Volume: 27
Issue: 22
Pages: 8372-8383
ISSN: 0894-8755 (ISSN-L)
1520-0442
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-14-00183.1
OpenAlex: W2108644185
Cited by: 329
References: 31
Citations by year: 2026: 23 · 2025: 35 · 2024: 36 · 2023: 44 · 2022: 39 · 2021: 50 · 2020: 25 · 2019: 21 · 2018: 17 · 2017: 20 · 2016: 11 · 2015: 6 · 2014: 1
FWCI: 10.40
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: bronze
doi.org
Locations: Journal of Climate (publishedVersion)
Funders: National Science Foundation (0960497)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
Keywords: rainfall frequency, rainfall intensity, global warming, climate change impacts, CMIP5, CO2 doubling, heavy rainfall, daily precipitation

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Changes in the Distribution of Rain Frequency and Intensity in Response to Global Warming*

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