Two Modes of Change of the Distribution of Rain*
Abstract
The frequency and intensity of rainfall determine its character and may change with climate. A methodology for characterizing the frequency and amount of rainfall as functions of the rain rate is developed. Two modes of response are defined, one in which the distribution of rainfall increases in equal fraction at all rain rates and one in which the rainfall shifts to higher or lower rain rates without a change in mean rainfall. This description of change is applied to the tropical distribution of daily rainfall over ENSO phases in models and observations. The description fits observations and most models well, although some models also have an extreme mode in which the frequency increases at extremely high rain rates. The multimodel mean from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) agrees with observations in showing a very large shift of 14%–15% K−1, indicating large increases in the heaviest rain rates associated with El Niño. Models with an extreme mode response to global warming do not agree as well with observations of the rainfall response to El Niño.
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Some models show disproportionate increases in precipitation extremes compared to other parts of the precipitation distribution, an extreme mode in the tropical response to climate change that relates to gridpoint storms.
“the disproportionate increases in precipitation extremes compared to other parts of the precipitation distribution that is found in some models—an “extreme mode” in the tropical response to climate change that relates to gridpoint storms [66, 67].”
From Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change (2015) · cites this paper as [67]
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- Authors
- Pendergrass, A. G., & Hartmann, D. L.
- Affiliations
- University of Washington (US)
- Corresponding author
- Pendergrass, Angeline G.
- Venue
- Journal of Climate
- Publisher
- American Meteorological Society
- Published
- 2014-11-04
- Volume
- 27
- Issue
- 22
- Pages
- 8357-8371
- ISSN
- 0894-8755 (ISSN-L)
- 1520-0442
- OpenAlex
- W2135049796
- Cited by
- 106
- References
- 34
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 9 · 2023: 13 · 2022: 15 · 2021: 7 · 2020: 15 · 2019: 8 · 2018: 8 · 2017: 8 · 2016: 7 · 2015: 4 · 2014: 2
- FWCI
- 5.79
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of Climate (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Keywords
- rainfall distribution, rainfall intensity, rainfall frequency, ENSO, El Niño, climate change response, extreme rainfall, CMIP5, global warming
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