Model Assessment of Observed Precipitation Trends over Land Regions: Detectable Human Influences and Possible Low Bias in Model Trends
Abstract
Precipitation trends for 1901–2010, 1951–2010, and 1981–2010 over relatively well-observed global land regions are assessed for detectable anthropogenic influences and for consistency with historical simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The CMIP5 historical all-forcing runs are broadly consistent with the observed trend pattern (1901–2010), but with an apparent low trend bias tendency in the simulations. Despite this bias, observed and modeled trends are statistically consistent over 59% of the analyzed area. Over 20% (9%) of the analyzed area, increased (decreased) precipitation is partly attributable to anthropogenic forcing. These inferred human-induced changes include increases over regions of the north-central United States, southern Canada, Europe, and southern South America and decreases over parts of the Mediterranean region and northern tropical Africa. Trends for the shorter periods (1951–2010 and 1981–2010) do not indicate a prominent low trend bias in the models, as found for the 1901–2010 trends. An atmosphere-only model, forced with observed sea surface temperatures and other climate forcing agents, also underpredicts the observed precipitation increase in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics since 1901. The CMIP5 all-forcing ensemble’s low bias in simulated trends since 1901 is a tentative finding that, if borne out in further studies, suggests that precipitation projections using these regions and models could overestimate future drought risk and underestimate future flooding risk, assuming all other factors equal.
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Combining evidence from climate model simulations and observational datasets allows identification of trends likely attributable in part to anthropogenic climate change for near-surface temperature and precipitation at the level of 5 degree (temperature) or 2.5 degree (precipitation) grid cells.
“Combining evidence from climate model simulations and observational datasets allows identification of trends likely attributable in part to anthropogenic climate change for near-surface temperature and precipitation at the level of 5 degree (temperature) or 2.5 degree (precipitation) grid cells 22,23 .”
From Machine-learning-based evidence and attribution mapping of 100,000 climate impact studies (2021) · cites this paper as [23]
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Machine-learning-based evidence and attribution mapping of 100,000 climate impact studies
Callaghan, M., Schleussner, C.-F., Nath, S., Lejeune, Q., Knutson, T. R., Reichstein, M., Hansen, G., Theokritoff, E., Andrijevic, M., Brecha, R. J., et al. (2021) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01168-6 · Cited by 251 · see citing works
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- Authors
- Knutson, T. R., & Zeng, F.
- Affiliations
- NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (US)
- Venue
- Journal of Climate
- Publisher
- American Meteorological Society
- Published
- 2018-06
- Volume
- 31
- Issue
- 12
- Pages
- 4617-4637
- ISSN
- 0894-8755 (ISSN-L)
- 1520-0442
- OpenAlex
- W2790470939
- Cited by
- 70
- References
- 56
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 12 · 2024: 9 · 2023: 21 · 2022: 11 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 1
- FWCI
- 1.76
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of Climate (publishedVersion)
- NOAA Institutional Repository (submittedVersion, public-domain)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Keywords
- precipitation trends, anthropogenic impacts, CMIP5, land precipitation, sea surface temperature forcing, drought risk, flood risk, Northern Hemisphere extratropics
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