CoChat
Sign Up
Cited by 165Climate variability and modelsClimate Change and Environmental ImpactGeology and Paleoclimatology Research

Multimodel Assessment of Regional Surface Temperature Trends: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Twentieth-Century Simulations

Knutson, Thomas R., Zeng, Fanrong, Wittenberg, Andrew T.·2013·Journal of Climate
DOI 10.1175/jcli-d-12-00567.1
Open this paper in CoChat — free account

Abstract

Regional surface temperature trends from phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) and CMIP5 twentieth-century runs are compared with observations—at spatial scales ranging from global averages to individual grid points—using simulated intrinsic climate variability from preindustrial control runs to assess whether observed trends are detectable and/or consistent with the models' historical run trends. The CMIP5 models are also used to detect anthropogenic components of the observed trends, by assessing alternative hypotheses based on scenarios driven with either anthropogenic plus natural forcings combined, or with natural forcings only. Modeled variability is assessed via inspection of control run time series, standard deviation maps, spectral analyses, and low-frequency variance consistency tests. The models are found to provide plausible representations of internal climate variability, although there is room for improvement. The influence of observational uncertainty on the trends is assessed and is found to be generally small in comparison with intrinsic climate variability. Observed temperature trends over 1901–2010 are found to contain detectable anthropogenic warming components over a large fraction (about 80%) of the analyzed global area. In about 70% of the analyzed area, the modeled warming is consistent with the observed trends; in about 10% it is significantly greater than simulated. Regions without detectable warming include the high-latitude North Atlantic Ocean, the eastern United States, and parts of the eastern and northern Pacific Ocean. For 1981–2010, the observed warming trends over only about 30% of the globe are found to contain a detectable anthropogenic warming: this includes a number of regions within about 40°–45° of the equator, particularly in the Indian Ocean, western Pacific, South Asia, and tropical Atlantic.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1175/jcli-d-12-00567.1

Cites

30 of 30 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Recomputing p-values needs the paper’s full text.

Claims the paper makes

This paper’s full text isn’t openly available, so its claims and self-check weren’t run. The registry and citation checks still apply.

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • Combining evidence from climate model simulations and observational datasets allows identification of trends likely attributable in part to anthropogenic climate change for near-surface temperature and precipitation at the level of 5 degree (temperature) or 2.5 degree (precipitation) grid cells.

    “Combining evidence from climate model simulations and observational datasets allows identification of trends likely attributable in part to anthropogenic climate change for near-surface temperature and precipitation at the level of 5 degree (temperature) or 2.5 degree (precipitation) grid cells 22,23 .”

    From Machine-learning-based evidence and attribution mapping of 100,000 climate impact studies (2021) · cites this paper as [22]

  • For surface temperature, the internal variability comparison results vs. observed estimates are similar to those of Knutson et al. 2013 for CMIP3 and CMIP5.

    “For surface temperature (extended Fig. 8) the internal variability comparison results vs. observed estimates are similar to those of Knutson et al. 2013 for CMIP3 and CMIP5 with a mixture of results:”

    From Machine-learning-based evidence and attribution mapping of 100,000 climate impact studies (2021) · cites this paper as Knutson et al. 2013

  • For the assessment of 1951-2018 observed trends, there are some additional regions with detectable anthropogenic warming compared to Knutson et al. (2013).

    “For the assessment of 1951-2018 observed trends (Extended Fig. 6), there are some additional regions with detectable anthropogenic warming compared to Knutson et al. (2013), but that is as expected, since the Knutson et al. analysis only examined trends through 2010.”

    From Machine-learning-based evidence and attribution mapping of 100,000 climate impact studies (2021) · cites this paper as Knutson et al. (2013)

  • The additional regions with detectable anthropogenic warming compared to Knutson et al. (2013) are expected because the Knutson et al. analysis only examined trends through 2010.

    “For the assessment of 1951-2018 observed trends (Extended Fig. 6), there are some additional regions with detectable anthropogenic warming compared to Knutson et al. (2013), but that is as expected, since the Knutson et al. analysis only examined trends through 2010.”

    From Machine-learning-based evidence and attribution mapping of 100,000 climate impact studies (2021) · cites this paper as Knutson et al. (2013)

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Related

Authors
Knutson, T. R., Zeng, F., & Wittenberg, A. T.
Affiliations
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (US)
Corresponding author
Knutson, Thomas R.
ORCID
Venue
Journal of Climate
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Published
2013-11-15
Volume
26
Issue
22
Pages
8709-8743
ISSN
  • 0894-8755 (ISSN-L)
  • 1520-0442
DOI
10.1175/jcli-d-12-00567.1
OpenAlex
W1996955225
Cited by
165
References
30
Citations by year
2025: 3 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 14 · 2021: 11 · 2020: 15 · 2019: 16 · 2018: 17 · 2017: 23 · 2016: 13 · 2015: 27 · 2014: 15 · 2013: 2
FWCI
14.45
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Locations
Journal of Climate (publishedVersion)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
Keywords
CMIP3, CMIP5, observational uncertainty

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review