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Does Suicidal Ideation as Measured by the PHQ-9 Predict Suicide Among VA Patients?
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Frequency of suicidal ideation in the past two weeks, assessed by item 9 of the nine-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9), has been positively associated with suicide mortality among patients in a setting other than the Veterans Health Administration (VHA). To inform suicide prevention activities at the VHA, it is important to evaluate whether item 9 is associated with suicide risk among patients in the VHA system. METHODS: PHQ-9 assessments (N=447,245) conducted by the VHA between October 1, 2009, and September 30, 2010, were collected. National Death Index data were used to ascertain suicide mortality from the date of PHQ-9 assessment through September 30, 2011. Multivariable proportional hazards regressions were used to evaluate associations between responses to item 9 and suicide mortality. RESULTS: After the analyses adjusted for covariates, a response of "several days" for item 9 was associated with a 75% increased risk of suicide (hazard ratio [HR]=1.75, 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.24-2.46), a response of "more than half the days" was associated with a 115% increased risk of suicide (HR=2.15, CI=1.32-3.51), and a response of "nearly every day" was associated with a 185% increased risk of suicide (HR=2.85, CI=1.81-4.47), compared with a response of "not at all." However, 71.6% of suicides during the study period occurred among patients who responded "not at all" to item 9 from their most recent PHQ-9. CONCLUSIONS: Higher levels of suicidal ideation, indicated by item 9 of the PHQ-9, were associated with increased risk of suicide among patients in the VHA system.
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“The presence or absence of suicidal ideation was determined using Item 9 of the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9).1314 Evidence endorsing its use as a general screening tool for identifying suicidal ideators continues to accumulate.13”
From Prevalence and Correlates of Suicidal Ideation among Psycho-Oncology Outpatients (2024) · cites this paper as [13]
In the citing paper
“The PHQ‐9 is valid and reliable measure of depressed mood and is often used in case identification (Louzon et al., 2016).”
From Effectiveness of cognitive analytic therapy for bipolar affective disorder: A co‐produced single subject cumulative treatment design with extended follow‐up (A 1 /B/A 2 /C‐FU) (2022) · cites this paper as Louzon et al., 2016
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“…currently having suicidal thoughts and behaviors if they gave a rating of 1 or higher (i.e., at least some of the time) on any of these three items, or on item 9 of the PHQ-9 (“having thoughts that you would be better off dead or thoughts of physically harming yourself” in the last two weeks) [18].”
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“Additionally, in a study on Veterans Health Administration patients, responses of “several days,” “more than half the days,” and “nearly everyday” to item 9 of the PHQ-9 were associated with a 75%, 115%, and 185% increased risks of suicide, respectively (Louzon et al., 2016).”
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“This dichotomization aligns with established practices in population-based research, where even infrequent suicidal thoughts are considered clinically relevant (Kim et al., 2021; Louzon et al., 2016; Simon et al., 2013).”
O’Brien, K. H. M., Quinlan, K. J., Humm, L. B., Cole, A., Hanita, M., Pires, W. J., Jacobs, A., & Grumet, J. G. (2024) · Community Mental Health Journal · doi:10.1007/s10597-024-01289-0 · Cited by 4
“Higher PHQ-9 scores are indicative of increased suicide risk (Louzon et al., 2016).”
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“Since the method used is internationally established for screening in research studies [99,100] and comparative data were collected in a similar way, we decided in favor of it.”
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“This item has been shown to be associated with increased risk of suicide in veterans (Louzon et al., 2016).”
BackgroundThirty Years After the Berlin Wall
Heller, A., & Schmidt, P. (2024) · Routledge eBooks · doi:10.4324/9781003427469 · Cited by 6
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“Moreover, the ninth item has false negative rates ranging from 11–72% (Louzon et al., 2016; Simon et al., 2013; Uebelacker et al., 2011).”
BackgroundPrevalence and Correlates of Suicidal Ideation among Psycho-Oncology Outpatients
Park, C. H. K., Kim, H., Kim, Y., Park, S. Y., & Joo, Y. H. (2024) · Yonsei Medical Journal · doi:10.3349/ymj.2023.0484 · Cited by 3
“13,14 Evidence endorsing its use as a general screening tool for identifying suicidal ideators continues to accumulate.”
Functional connectivity alterations in PTSD patients with suicidal ideation
Wood, S. J., Booth, S., & Ko, J. H. (2024) · Brain Research Bulletin · doi:10.1016/j.brainresbull.2024.110905 · Cited by 3
“Item 9 of the PHQ-9 has shown to be a reliable measure of SI (Louzon et al., 2016), but others have suggested that it overestimates suicide risk compared to more comprehensive measures like the Columbia suicide severity rating scale (Chung et al., 2023; Na et al., 2018) .”
Bloch‐Elkouby, S., Hayek, R. E., Cohen, L. R., Chen, J. P., Gorman, B. S., Apter-Levy, Y., Wheeler, E., Park, B., Prekas, A. S., & GALYNKER, I. I. (2026) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2026.121341 · Cited by 3
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“For example, Louzon et al. (2016) found a positive relationship between higher level of suicidal ideation and increased suicide risk.”
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Problem Drinking, Perceived Burden, Depression, and Suicide Ideation: A Conceptual Model
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Fischer, I. C., Nichter, B., Trachik, B. J., Bryan, C. J., & Pietrzak, R. H. (2024) · Psychiatry · doi:10.1080/00332747.2024.2352883 · Cited by 3
Self-Harm Before and Six Months After Obesity Surgery
Thomas, T. A., Tilk, K., Klassen, K., Pommnitz, M., Wunder, R., Mall, J. W., Köhler, H., de Zwaan, M., Meyer, G., Hüttl, T. P., et al. (2024) · Obesity Surgery · doi:10.1007/s11695-024-07439-3 · Cited by 3
“Suicidal ideations were assessed with item 9 of the Patient Health Questionnaire depression module (PHQ-9) [41, 42], which indicated good ability to screen for suicidal ideations in previous studies [43, 44].”
MethodRobison, M., Velimirović, M., Rice, T. B., Duffy, A., Riddle, M. C., Manwaring, J. L., Rienecke, R. D., McClanahan, S. F., Blalock, D. V., Grange, D. L., et al. (2024) · Clinical Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/21677026241274746 · Cited by 4
“In addition, previous studies have shown that responses to Item 9 of the PHQ-9 are predictive of both suicide attempts and deaths by suicide (Louzon et al., 2016; Simon et al., 2013), supporting its validity as an SI screening tool.”
Training and Education Related to Suicide Prevention
Qayyum, Z., Taylor, S. M., & Schneider, M. R. (2022) · Advances in Psychiatry and Behavioral Health · doi:10.1016/j.ypsc.2022.03.005 · Cited by 2
Brown, L. A., Lynch, K. G., Gehrman, P., Mayinja, L. S., Farabaugh, D. T., & Bredemeier, K. (2025) · Suicide and Life-Threatening Behavior · doi:10.1111/sltb.70011 · Cited by 2
Sleep disturbances, night eating, and depression in patients with binge-eating disorder
Velimirović, M., Campione, M. T., Manwaring, J. L., Rienecke, R. D., Riddle, M. C., Duffy, A., Mehler, P. S., & Joiner, T. E. (2025) · Journal of Psychiatric Research · doi:10.1016/j.jpsychires.2025.07.008 · Cited by 2
Saulnier, K. G., Bagge, C. L., Ganoczy, D. A., Bahraini, N. H., Jagusch, J., Hosanagar, A., Ilgen, M. A., & Pfeiffer, P. N. (2025) · Psychiatry Research · doi:10.1016/j.psychres.2025.116660 · Cited by 2
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“Research indicates that higher scores on this item substantially predict suicide risk and mortality, with reported suicidal ideation on this item robustly linked to suicide attempts and deaths for up to two years [24].”
Ernst, M., Petersen, J., Krakau, L., Reinwarth, A. C., Hettich-Damm, N., Hartmann, A., Wild, P. S., Münzel, T. F., Urschitz, M. S., Lackner, K. J., et al. (2025) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2025.120907 · Cited by 2
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“This question is a significant predictor of suicide risk, however 71.6% of suicide deaths among screened VHA patients were among those with negative responses to item 9 of the PHQ-9 (Louzon et al., 2016).”
InfluentialSelf-citationUtilizing digital predictive biomarkers to identify Veteran suicide risk
Holmgren, J. G., Morrow, A., Coffee, A. K., Nahod, P. M., Santora, S. H., Schwartz, B., Stiegmann, R. A., & Zanetti, C. (2022) · Frontiers in Digital Health · doi:10.3389/fdgth.2022.913590 · Cited by 2
“However, many Veteran suicides occur in patients who respond “not at all” to item 9 (20).”
BackgroundKealy, D., Chartier, G., Walther, A., Rice, S., Seidler, Z. E., Oliffe, J. L., & Ogrodniczuk, J. S. (2023) · The Journal of Nervous and Mental Disease · doi:10.1097/nmd.0000000000001680 · Cited by 3
Suicide risk communication and intervention preferences for veterans and service members
Beatty, A. E., Richardson, J. S., Batten, S. V., Weintraub, S., Hogan, K., & Hotle, K. (2023) · Frontiers in Public Health · doi:10.3389/fpubh.2023.1215925 · Cited by 2
“Additionally, a previous study utilizing the PHQ-9 indicated that 71.6% of suicides were among patients who responded “not at all” when asked if they had “thoughts that you would be better off dead, or thoughts of hurting yourself in some way” (16).”
MethodInfluentialDisentangling age, period, and cohort effects shaping suicidal ideation in East and West Germany
Otten, D., Brähler, E., Beutel, M. E., Hinz, A., & Ernst, M. (2024) · Routledge eBooks · doi:10.4324/9781003427469-5 · Cited by 2
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“…both as a continuous value and in a binary fashion (0 = not at all; 1 = any frequency of suicidal ideation) and has shown its validity, for example, it outperformed the suicidal ideation item included in the Columbia Suicide Severity Rating Scale, 40 and it predicted suicide deaths 41 and attempts.”
Nandy, K., Nandy, R. R., Rush, A. J., Mayes, T. L., & Trivedi, M. H. (2024) · Journal of Psychopharmacology · doi:10.1177/02698811241268875 · Cited by 2
“A 2016 study (Louzon et al., 2016) found that patients in the Veterans Health Administration system were at an increased risk of suicide when they exhibited higher levels of suicidal ideation, as indicated by Item 9 of the PHQ-9.”
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Umgang mit suizidalem Erleben und Verhalten in Forschungsprojekten
Teismann, T., Forkmann, T., Sander, L., & Glaesmer, H. (2021) · PPmP - Psychotherapie · Psychosomatik · Medizinische Psychologie · doi:10.1055/a-1542-9753 · Cited by 2
“Erhöhte Werte in Suizidalitätsitems aus Fragebögen, wie dem Patient Health Questionnaire, wurden zwar einerseits mit Suiziden in Verbindung gebracht [7], andererseits ist die Vorhersagekraft zu gering, um hieraus unmittelbare klinische Konsequenzen zu ziehen.”
BackgroundCyr, K. S., Nazarov, A., Le, T., Nouri, M. S., Saha, P., Forchuk, C. A., Soares, V., Wanklyn, S. G., Bird, B. M., Davis, B. D., et al. (2023) · BMC Psychiatry · doi:10.1186/s12888-023-05237-2 · Cited by 2
“This item has been used in previous research [22–24] as an indicator of suicide ideation, and was associated with suicide risk among patients in a Veterans Health Administration (VHA) setting [25].”
MethodSelf-Reported Suicidal Ideation as a Predictor of Suicidal Behavior
McCusker, P. J. (2019) · Psychiatric Services · doi:10.1176/appi.ps.70703 · Cited by 2
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“Only using recent suicidal ideation at a certain time may fail to predict suicidal behavior, and most individuals may die by suicide with no prior suicidal ideation (Louzon et al., 2016).”
Markers of Suicide Risk on the MMPI-3 Among Post-9/11 Veterans
Rothman, A. H., Anderson, J. L., & Wygant, D. B. (2025) · Journal of Personality Assessment · doi:10.1080/00223891.2025.2531179 · Cited by 1
“In one study, 71.6% of suicide deaths among VA patients during the surveillance period were among those who did not report suicidal ideation on the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 at their most recent evaluation (Louzon et al., 2016).”
InfluentialChristensen, M., Culp, S., Campo, J. V., Bridge, J. A., & Horowitz, L. M. (2025) · The Journal of Rural Health · doi:10.1111/jrh.70064 · Cited by 1
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Sintomas depressivos em pacientes com doença de Crohn e sua relação com o fenótipo da doença
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“Consistent with research in Veteran populations (Louzon et al., 2016), the presence and frequency of suicidal ideation was assessed using item nine of the PHQ-9: “ Over the last 2 weeks, how often have you been bothered by thoughts that you would be better o ff dead, or of hurting yourself?”
MethodSextl-Plötz, T., Schulte, C. E., Baumeister, H., Titzler, I., Sander, L., Sachser, C., Steubl, L., & Zarski, A. (2023) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4620592
Dat, N. T. (2024) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-4366656/v1
Chapter 4. Suicide Risk Reduction in Older Adults
Wang, L. Y. (2022) · American Psychiatric Association Publishing eBooks · doi:10.1176/appi.books.9781615379736.lg04
Heller, A., Beutel, M. E., Brähler, E., & Ernst, M. (2024) · Zeitschrift für psychosomatische Medizin und Psychotherapie · doi:10.13109/zptm.2024.70.4.358
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Fang, B., Zhang, H., Li, D., Pei, Y., & Ye, W. (2025) · Journal of Elder Abuse & Neglect · doi:10.1080/08946566.2025.2544279
“This PHQ-9 self-harm item has previously demonstrated acceptable sensitivity and utility in detecting self-harm or suicidal ideation in older adults and clinical populations (Louzon et al., 2016; Rossom et al., 2017).”
Hajek, A., Stickley, A., Zwar, L., Peltzer, K., Pengpid, S., Gyasi, R. M., Yon, D. K., & König, H. (2025) · Journal of Public Health · doi:10.1007/s10389-025-02627-6
Cogan, M. B., Nestadt, P. S., Lewis, C. M., Weckstein, J., & Berman, A. L. (2025) · Suicide and Life-Threatening Behavior · doi:10.1111/sltb.70062
Liu, Q., Ma, H., Li, J., Chen, M., Zhang, Y., Tang, Z., Du, X., & Ye, G. (2025) · BMC Psychiatry · doi:10.1186/s12888-025-07674-7
“” [27].”
Geraci, J. C., Finley, E. P., Edwards, E. R., Frankfurt, S., Kurz, A. S., Kamdar, N., Vanneman, M. E., Lopoo, L. M., Patnaik, H. A., Yoon, J., et al. (2022) · Figshare · doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.20279254
Khazanov, G. K., Wolk, C. B., Lorenc, E., Candon, M. K., Pieri, M. F., Oslin, D. W., Press, M. J., Anderson, E., Famiglio, E., & Jager‐Hyman, S. (2024) · Figshare · doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.26195771
Gorman, R., Gibbons, L., Walsh, L., Blaney, E., & Collins, P. (2026) · Irish Journal of Psychological Medicine · doi:10.1017/ipm.2026.10177
Kang, H., Kim, B., Hyun, J., Chu, S. H., & Choi, J. (2026) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2026.121536
SENSE: A Stacked Ensemble Learning Framework for Early Suicidal Risk Prediction in Adolescents
Metri, P., & Kukreja, S. (2025) · International Conference on Advances in Computation, Communication and Information Technology (ICAICCIT) · doi:10.1109/icaiccit68829.2025.11434211
Understanding suicidal ideation in Cambodia: the roles of PTSD, shame, and guilt
Fleddermann, K., Ean, N., Mannarino, J. A., Carrico, A. C., Paul, R. H., White, H., & Bruce, S. E. (2026) · International Journal of Mental Health · doi:10.1080/00207411.2026.2630428
Krause, J. S., Dismuke‐Greer, C. E., Smith, D. E., & DiPiro, N. D. (2026) · Spinal Cord · doi:10.1038/s41393-026-01192-3
Danzo, S., Abler, A., Hoang, A. N., Comtois, K. A., Hartzler, A. L., Richardson, L. P., & McCauley, E. (2026) · PLOS mental health. · doi:10.1371/journal.pmen.0000607
“Assessing suicidality has demonstrated promise in identifying individuals at risk for suicide, and thus serves as an important step in the suicide care continuum [9–11].”
Carnes, N. C., Zouris, J. M., & Bryan, C. J. (2026) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2026.122016
Wei, W., Liang, S., Zhang, L., Yuan, Z., Nan, J., & Wu, S. (2026) · BMC Psychiatry · doi:10.1186/s12888-026-08340-2
“The incidence of suicidal ideation is high among adolescents [4], and a range of studies have shown that suicidal ideation is significantly related to subsequent suicidal acts or self-harm behaviors [5–7].”
Dismuke‐Greer, C. E., Harris, M. W., & Krause, J. S. (2026) · Military Medicine · doi:10.1093/milmed/usag114
Bravata, D. M., Hudson, J. M., Kibby, S., Chaudhary, N., Parsons, T., & Benson, N. M. (2026) · JMIR Mental Health · doi:10.2196/101421
“Although item 9 on the PHQ-9 has been shown to be a clinically meaningful, predictive marker of subsequent suicide attempts and suicide death [8-10], it does not distinguish between passive death ideation (“thoughts you would be better off dead”) and active self-injurious ideation (“hurting…”
Malhotra, B., Klyce, D. W., Juengst, S. B., Talley, K. G., Finn, J. A., & Perrin, P. B. (2026) · PM&R · doi:10.1002/pmrj.70217
Trajectories of suicide risk in virtual therapy for college students: A retrospective study
Klein, K. V., Palko, A., Loren, D. M., Bickham, N., Booth, R. T., & Herr, N. R. (2026) · Digital Health · doi:10.1177/20552076261490853
“17,18 However, the item is intentionally broad, capturing a range of thoughts related to death as well as non-suicidal self-harm, and has limited specificity for differentiating levels of suicide risk.”
Mao, W., Owusu, E., Shalaby, R., Elgendy, H. E., Agyapong, B., Eboreime, E., Silverstone, P. H., Chue, P. S., Vuong, W., Öhinmaa, A., et al. (2026) · JMIR Human Factors · doi:10.2196/92360
Metadata
- Authors
- Louzon, S. A., Bossarte, R., McCarthy, J. F., & Katz, I. R.
- Affiliations
- United States Department of Veterans Affairs (US)
- Venue
- Psychiatric Services
- Published
- 2016-05-01
- Volume
- 67
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 517-522
- ISSN
- 0022-1597 (ISSN-L)
- 1075-2730
- 1557-9700
- OpenAlex
- W2239385095
- Cited by
- 291
- References
- 18
- Citations by year
- 2026: 16 · 2025: 33 · 2024: 24 · 2023: 44 · 2022: 32 · 2021: 44 · 2020: 33 · 2019: 28 · 2018: 23 · 2017: 9 · 2016: 5
- FWCI
- 29.05
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Psychiatric Services (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Suicide and Self-Harm Studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Opioid Use Disorder Treatment
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Mental Health Treatment and Access
- Keywords
- suicidal ideation, PHQ-9, suicide mortality, suicide risk, veterans, suicide prevention, Patient Health Questionnaire, suicide risk screening, Veterans Health Administration
- MeSH terms
- Patient Health Questionnaire, Suicide Prevention, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Mental Disorders, Female, Hospitals, Veterans, Humans, Male, Mass Screening, Middle Aged, Risk Factors, Suicide, United States, Veterans, Multivariate Analysis, Proportional Hazards Models, Suicidal Ideation
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