The DOI matches its Crossref record; 64 of the 65 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Does Conflict Beget Conflict? Explaining Recurring Civil War
Abstract
This article attempts to explain why some countries experience civil wars while others do not. It argues that renewed war is likely to have less to do with the attributes of a previous war, as many people have argued, than with current incentives individual citizens have to rejoin a rebel group. Civil wars will have little chance to get off the ground unless individual farmers, shopkeepers, and potential workers choose to enlist in the rebel armies that are necessary to pursue a war, and enlistment is only likely to be attractive when two conditions hold. The first is a situation of individual hardship or severe dissatisfaction with one’s current situation. The second is the absence of any nonviolent means for change. An analysis of all civil wars ending between 1945 and 1996 suggests that a higher quality of life and greater access to political participation have a significant negative effect on the likelihood of renewed war. Countries that provide higher levels of economic well-being to their citizenry and create an open political system are less likely to experience multiple civil wars regardless of what happened in a previous conflict.
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In the citing paper
“actors who have incentives to initiate violence will find the conditions more conducive to radicalization and mobilization in poor, post-conflict societies (22,185).”
From Vicious Circles: Violence, Vulnerability, and Climate Change (2021) · cites this paper as [185]
In the citing paper
“Grievances are important because they provide rebel leaders with an opportunity to mobilize potential soldiers and supporters who are dissatisfied with the government (Walter 2004, 374-75).”
From Conflict Recurrence and Postconflict Justice: Addressing Motivations and Opportunities for Sustainable Peace (2017) · cites this paper as Walter 2004
In the citing paper
“Recruitment and civilian support, in turn, are essential for the opposition to resume violence against the government as it bolsters their fighting capabilities.”
From Conflict Recurrence and Postconflict Justice: Addressing Motivations and Opportunities for Sustainable Peace (2017) · cites this paper as Walter 2004
Citations
Cites
Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War
FEARON, J. D., & LAITIN, D. D. (2003) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s0003055403000534 · Cited by 7,366
Threshold models of collective behavior
Granovetter, M. (1978) · American Journal of Sociology · doi:10.1086/226707 · Cited by 6,072
From Mobilization to Revolution
Stearns, P. N., & Tilly, C. (1979) · The American Historical Review · doi:10.2307/1855671 · Cited by 4,583
Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth
Sachs, J., & Warner, A. (1995) · doi:10.3386/w5398 · Cited by 4,461
From Mobilization to Revolution
Tilly, C. (2017) · Routledge eBooks · doi:10.4324/9781315205021-5 · Cited by 4,010
(1970) · Medical Entomology and Zoology · Cited by 3,500
Making the most of statistical analyses: improving interpretation and presentation
King, G., Tomz, M., & Wittenberg, J. (2000) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.2307/2669316 · Cited by 3,232
Taking Time Seriously: Time-Series-Cross-Section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable
Beck, N. L., Katz, J. N., & Tucker, R. P. (1998) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.2307/2991857 · Cited by 2,443
Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change, and Civil War, 1816–1992
Hegre, H. (2001) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s0003055401000119 · Cited by 1,604
Tracking Democracy's Third Wave with the Polity III Data
Jaggers, K., & Gurr, T. R. (1995) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343395032004007 · Cited by 1,332
Research works printed but not linked: 5
- 2001, ‘Civil Wars and Poverty: The Role of External Interventions, Political Rights and Economic Growth’
- 1972, ‘War Power and the Willingness to Suffer’, 167
- 2003, ‘Resources and Rebellion in Aceh, Indonesia’
- 1993, ‘The Causes of Peace’, 235
- 2004, ‘War as a Reputation Problem’
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Introducing ACLED: An armed conflict location and event dataset
Raleigh, C., Linke, A., Hegre, H., & Karlsen, J. (2010) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343310378914 · Cited by 1,747
Back to the Future: Modeling Time Dependence in Binary Data
Carter, D. B., & Signorino, C. S. (2010) · Political Analysis · doi:10.1093/pan/mpq013 · Cited by 1,677
Why Do Ethnic Groups Rebel? New Data and Analysis
Cederman, L.-E., Wimmer, A., & Min, B. (2010) · World Politics · doi:10.1017/s0043887109990219 · Cited by 1,346
A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability
Goldstone, J. Α., Bates, R. H., Epstein, D., Gurr, T. R., Lustik, M. B., Marshall, M. G., Ulfelder, J., & Woodward, M. R. (2009) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00426.x · Cited by 881
Does Peacekeeping Keep Peace? International Intervention and the Duration of Peace After Civil War
Fortna, V. P. (2004) · International Studies Quarterly · doi:10.1111/j.0020-8833.2004.00301.x · Cited by 673
Metadata
- Authors
- Walter, B. F.
- Affiliations
- University of California San Diego (US)
- Corresponding author
- Walter, Barbara F
- ORCID
- Walter, Barbara F
- Venue
- Journal of Peace Research
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2004-05-01
- Volume
- 41
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 371-388
- ISSN
- 0022-3433 (ISSN-L)
- 1460-3578
- OpenAlex
- W2115057879
- Cited by
- 690
- References
- 65
- Citations by year
- 2026: 30 · 2025: 19 · 2024: 37 · 2023: 52 · 2022: 48 · 2021: 53 · 2020: 41 · 2019: 43 · 2018: 48 · 2017: 33 · 2016: 29 · 2015: 28 · 2014: 31 · 2013: 36 · 2012: 35
- FWCI
- 31.68
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of Peace Research (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Peacebuilding and International Security
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Natural Resources and Economic Development
- Keywords
- civil war recurrence, economic well-being, political participation, quality of life, civil war onset
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