CoChat
Sign Up
Cited by 79Political Conflict and GovernancePeacebuilding and International SecurityWar, Law, and Justice

Conflict Recurrence and Postconflict Justice: Addressing Motivations and Opportunities for Sustainable Peace

Loyle, Cyanne E, Appel, Benjamin J·2017·International Studies Quarterly
DOI 10.1093/isq/sqx045
Open this paper in CoChat — free account

Abstract

Why do some postconflict states return to violence, while others remain at peace? Analysts increasingly credit postconflict justice institutions—such as truth commissions, amnesties, reparations, and trials—with contributing to the prevention of conflict recurrence following civil wars. But scholars remain divided about the overall effectiveness of these varied institutions. In this article, we directly engage this debate. We seek to overcome theoretical and data limitations that make it difficult to address the relationship between justice institutions and the likelihood that conflict will recur. We find that only postconflict justice processes that lessen conflict-induced grievances, and thus address individual motivations to rebel, are successful at keeping the peace. In a series of statistical tests using new data on postconflict justice from 1946 to 2006, we find strong support for the role of motivation-addressing processes in reducing conflict recurrence.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1093/isq/sqx045

Cites

81 of 81 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

1 of 51 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured

  • Findingown data

    Opportunity-addressing processes have little systematic effect on the resumption of violence.

    “opportunity-addressing processes have little systematic effect on the resumption of violence.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    Motivation-addressing justice institutions reduce the risk of conflict recurrence.

    “In a series of statistical tests using new data on postconflict justice from 1946 to 2006, we find strong support for the role of motivation-addressing processes in reducing conflict recurrence.”
    • Also stated in: § Abstract · plain
      “we find that motivation-addressing justice institutions reduce the risk of conflict recurrence”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    The correlation between motivation and opportunity postconflict justice is .16.

    “The correlation between the two types of postconflict justice is .16.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    Across postconflict episodes where either motivation or opportunity postconflict justice is used, only 18 percent of episodes include both motivation and opportunity processes.

    “Across postconflict episodes where either motivation or opportunity postconflict justice is used, only 18 percent of episodes include both motivation and opportunity processes.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    There is no statistical support for short- and long-term effects of motivation postconflict justice variables interacted with time.

    “We find no statistical support for this.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims. 39
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 31

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Opposition trials reduce the likelihood of conflict through the outright removal of perpetrators and implicated leaders as well as through changes in the cost-benefit calculations of potential perpetrators.

    “These trials reduce the likelihood of conflict through “the outright removal of perpetrators and implicated leaders … [as well as] through changes in the cost-benefit calculations of potential perpetrators” (Thoms et al. 2010, 333).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Thoms et al. 2010 source

      The Trials section (cited p. 333) describes removal of perpetrators and changes in potential perpetrators’ cost-benefit calculations as two proposed deterrence mechanisms. It attributes these mechanisms to trial advocates, rather than establishing that trials reduce the likelihood of conflict; it also does not specify opposition trials. (LLM, conf=0.86)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Battle deaths, the number of rebel groups operating in the country, and conflicts that started following the Cold War predict a higher rate of conflict recurrence.

    “while battle deaths, the number of rebel groups operating in the country, and conflicts that started following the Cold War predict a higher rate of recurrence.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Opposition trials have a hazard ratio less than 1 but do not reach standard levels of significance.

    “All three hazard ratios-opposition trials, exiles, and purges-are less than 1, but they all fail to reach standard levels of significance (Table 1).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Exiles have a hazard ratio less than 1 but do not reach standard levels of significance.

    “All three hazard ratios-opposition trials, exiles, and purges-are less than 1, but they all fail to reach standard levels of significance (Table 1).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Amnesties were implemented in eighty-two post-conflict-episode periods.

    “In our data, amnesties were implemented in eighty-two post-conflict-episode periods.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Victory, peacekeeping, power-sharing agreements, duration, and army size are associated with a lower risk of conflict recurrence.

    “Victory, peacekeeping, power-sharing agreements, duration, and army size are all associated with a lower risk of recurrence”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The results remain consistent, and the number of previous conflict episodes is not significant.

    “Our results remain consistent, and this variable is not significant.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingown data

    There are twelve postconflict episodes with purges in our data.

    “There are twelve postconflict episodes with purges in our data.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Purges have a hazard ratio less than 1 but do not reach standard levels of significance.

    “All three hazard ratios-opposition trials, exiles, and purges-are less than 1, but they all fail to reach standard levels of significance (Table 1).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Addressing grievances among individuals is a central way for governments to prevent recruitment, reduce rebel group support, and ultimately avert the resumption of armed conflict.

    “Thus, addressing grievances among individuals is a central way for governments to prevent recruitment, reduce rebel group support, and ultimately avert the resumption of armed conflict.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Individuals are more likely to participate in renewed fighting when they harbor grievances against the government.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Opportunity postconflict justice increases the opportunity costs for participating in renewed conflict and decreases the likelihood of conflict recurrence.

    “It therefore increases the opportunity costs for participating in renewed conflict and decreases the likelihood of conflict recurrence.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Postconflict justice reduces the ability of rebel leaders to mobilize individuals from the population, which in turn lowers the probability of conflict recurrence.

    “Drawing on these insights, we argue that postconflict justice reduces the ability of rebel leaders to mobilize individuals from the population, which in turn lowers the probability of conflict recurrence.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Individuals are more likely to participate in renewed fighting when they harbor grievances against the government.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    By implementing opportunity postconflict justice, the government demonstrates that it has the resources to identify and hold individuals accountable for their actions and consequently the ability to successfully fight a renewed conflict.

    “By implementing opportunity postconflict justice, the government demonstrates that it has the resources to identify and hold individuals accountable for their actions and consequently the ability to successfully fight a renewed conflict (Huntington 1991;Zalaquett 1995).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Huntington 1991

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Zalaquett 1995

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data

    As a robustness check, dropping the small number of amnesties that only target elites yields results consistent with the main results.

    “As a robustness check we drop the small number of amnesties that only target elites.The results are consistent with the below and presented in the Supplementary Information.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    By alleviating grievances among susceptible actors and signaling government commitment, postconflict justice institutions decrease rebel motivation, inhibiting the ability of rebel leaders to recruit followers and garner supporters.

    “Thus, by alleviating grievances among susceptible actors, namely the opposition and their potential supporters, and signaling government commitment to this path, postconflict justice institutions decrease rebel motivation, inhibiting the ability of rebel leaders to recruit followers and garner supporters.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Individuals are more likely to participate in renewed fighting when they harbor grievances against the government.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Individuals will expect to incur higher costs for fighting, making them less willing to resume violence and/or support a rebel group.

    “As a result, individuals will expect to incur higher costs for fighting, making them less willing to resume violence and/or support a rebel group (Goodwin and Skocpol 1989, 497;Hegre and Sambanis 2006, 528-29;Tilly 1978).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Goodwin and Skocpol 1989 source
    • cites Hegre and Sambanis 2006 source
    • cites Tilly 1978

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationnone given

    If a government offers amnesty to the opposition, it may lead to a backlash among government supporters who demand punishments for wrongdoers.

    “We recognize that if a government offers amnesty to the opposition it may lead to a backlash among government supporters who demand punishments for wrongdoers.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    Individuals who are compensated for the wrongs committed against them during the conflict will feel less aggrieved and should therefore be less hostile toward the government in the future.

    “As a result, individuals who are compensated for the wrongs that were committed against them during the conflict will feel less aggrieved and should therefore be less hostile toward the government in the future (Backer and Kulkarni 2012, 37-38).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Backer and Kulkarni 2012

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • The authors state this as an assumption: Individuals are more likely to participate in renewed fighting when they harbor grievances against the government.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Truth commissions, reparations, amnesties, and comprehensive trials contribute to the duration of peace by addressing grievances, alleviating residual dissatisfaction from the conflict, and reducing future violence toward the postconflict state by decreasing the likelihood that individuals will rebel.

    “In sum, truth commissions, reparations, amnesties, and comprehensive trials contribute to the duration of peace by addressing grievances, alleviating residual dissatisfaction from the conflict, and reducing future violence toward the postconflict state by decreasing the likelihood that individuals will rebel.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Individuals are more likely to participate in renewed fighting when they harbor grievances against the government.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Governments who offer amnesty signal to the opposition that they absolve them for crimes committed during conflict and are ready to move forward socially and politically.

    “Governments who offer amnesty signal to the opposition that they absolve them for crimes committed during conflict and are ready to move forward socially and politically.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    According to the logic of reciprocity, individuals who have faith in the willingness of others to contribute their fair share will voluntarily respond in kind.

    “According to the “logic of reciprocity,” “individuals who have faith in the willingness of others to contribute their fair share will voluntarily respond in kind” (Kahan 2003, 72).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Kahan 2003

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    Forcing someone into exile is a show of strength and reduces potential threats to the government in two primary ways.

    “Forcing someone into exile is a show of strength and reduces potential threats to the government in two primary ways.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Interpretationnone given

    Reparations address CIGs through publicly acknowledging and compensating individuals for the violence they experienced during war.

    “Specifically, reparations address CIGs through publically acknowledging and compensating individuals for the violence they experienced during war.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Individuals will feel less aggrieved against the government and ultimately less likely to return to rebellion.

    “In so doing, individuals will feel less aggrieved against the government and ultimately less likely to return to rebellion.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Individuals are more likely to participate in renewed fighting when they harbor grievances against the government.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    A postconflict government must deter actors from resuming violence; demonstrating state strength is one way for this to be accomplished.

    “A postconflict government must therefore deter actors from resuming violence; demonstrating state strength is one way for this to be accomplished.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: In the immediate postconflict period, the feasibility of relaunching conflict is high because weapons remain in circulation, fighters may not yet be decommissioned, and governments may be destabilized.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    By implementing comprehensive trials, the opposition and their supporters will recognize that the government is fostering justice, reducing their dissatisfaction, and making rebellion less likely.

    “Thus, by implementing comprehensive trials, the opposition and their supporters will recognize that the government is fostering justice, reducing their dissatisfaction, and making rebellion less likely.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Amnesty allays fears of government retribution, providing an opportunity for opponents to reintegrate into society, allowing them to move forward and build a new life without fear of future sanction.

    “Amnesty allays fears of government retribution, providing an opportunity for opponents to reintegrate into society, allowing them to move forward and build a new life without fear of future sanction.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    This will further have the effect of reducing grievances among potential future rebels and rebel supporters as the government demonstrates its benevolence, making it more difficult for rebel leaders to recruit new members.

    “This will further have the effect of reducing grievances among potential future rebels and rebel supporters as the government demonstrates its benevolence, making it more difficult for rebel leaders to recruit new members.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Individuals are more likely to participate in renewed fighting when they harbor grievances against the government.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    A sense of impartiality and justice being served helps reduce grievances and promotes social reconciliation.

    “A sense of impartiality and justice being served helps reduce grievances and promotes social reconciliation.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Even when some individuals are not completely satisfied with the amount of money or support received, the adoption of a reparations process by the government is a strong and credible signal of government intent, reducing the potential for mobilizers to recruit individuals to future violence.

    “Even when some individuals are not completely satisfied with the amount of money or support received, the adoption of a reparations process by the government is a strong and credible signal of government intent, reducing the potential for mobilizers to recruit individuals to future violence.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Former combatants and their supporters will feel less threatened by the government, reducing their desire to take up arms against the government to protect themselves.

    “As a result, former combatants and their supporters will feel less threatened by the government, reducing their desire to take up arms against the government to protect themselves.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning

    Each of these processes further acts as a credible signal on the part of the government to support peace and stability into the future.

    “Each further acts as a credible signal on the part of the government to support peace and stability into the future.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data

    The study estimates several robustness checks in the Supplementary Information to address the possibility of both motivation and opportunity postconflict justice being used simultaneously.

    “To address this empirically, we estimate several robustness checks in the Supplementary Information.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Opportunity-addressing postconflict justice demonstrates the strength of the postconflict government and thus deters individuals from participating in conflict.

    “Opportunity-addressing postconflict justice demonstrates the strength of the postconflict government and thus deters individuals from participating in conflict.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    Opposition trials solely target the opposition, demonstrating a government's punitive rather than restorative intentions, revealing state strength instead of addressing grievances.

    “Alternatively, opposition trials, discussed further below, solely target the opposition (the group not in power following the conflict), demonstrating a government's punitive rather than restorative intentions, revealing state strength instead of addressing grievances.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    Truth commissions help individuals heal from the wounds of war and move toward societal reconciliation, reducing the ability of rebel leaders to recruit.

    “In turn, this helps individuals heal from the wounds of war and move toward societal reconciliation (Herman 1994), reducing the ability of rebel leaders to recruit.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Herman 1994

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • The authors state this as an assumption: Individuals are more likely to participate in renewed fighting when they harbor grievances against the government.

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    The F-statistics are 17.46 and 13.21 in the motivation and opportunity postconflict justice models, respectively, suggesting the instruments are strongly associated with postconflict justice.

    “The F-statistics are 17.46 and 13.21 in the motivation and opportunity postconflict justice models, respectively, and thus the test statistics suggest that the instruments are strongly associated with postconflict justice.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisereasoning

    Scholars argue that postconflict justice contributed to peace following the civil war in Liberia.

    “scholars argue that postconflict justice contributed to peace following the civil war in Liberia.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    Special attention was paid to coding target and sender in the PCJ dataset; this information was coded directly from the news reports and supplemental materials used to code the postconflict justice process.

    “Special attention was paid to coding target and sender in the PCJ dataset; this information was coded directly from the news reports and supplemental materials used to code the postconflict justice process (Binningsbø and Loyle 2012).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Binningsbø and Loyle 2012 source

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    The Hansen J test fails to reach statistical significance in both the motivation and opportunity postconflict justice models, indicating the instruments' validity.

    “The test fails to reach statistical significance in both the motivation and opportunity postconflict justice models, indicating the instruments' validity.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: No literature suggests that the diffusion of postconflict justice is a predictor of conflict recurrence.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premiseown data

    Postconflict justice reduces the resumption of conflict by alleviating grievances in postconflict periods and signaling the government's commitment to peace and reconciliation.

    “The results suggest strong support for our theoretical argument on how postconflict justice reduces the resumption of conflict by alleviating grievances in postconflict periods and signaling the government's commitment to peace and reconciliation.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisereasoning

    In the case of opposition trials, only trials that target the former opposition are included because these are the types of trials most associated with signaling state strength and deterrence.

    “In the case of opposition trials, we only include trials that target the former opposition (e.g., the group not in power) as these are the types of trials most associated with signaling state strength and deterrence.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    These coding rules ensure that only processes reflecting the motivation-based argument (that postconflict justice reduces incentives to mobilize among the opposition and their supporters) are captured.

    “Importantly, these coding rules ensure that we only capture those processes that reflect our motivation-based argument that postconflict justice reduces incentives to mobilize among the opposition and their supporters.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductreasoning

    It is technically impossible to test the exclusion restriction assumption because the true error term is unknown.

    “It is technically impossible to test this assumption as we do not know the true error term.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisereasoning

    International processes are adopted and implemented with the support of the host government and demonstrate international recognition of that government, serving as a signal of state strength and providing the same deterrent effect as domestic opportunity processes.

    “Regarding internationalized opportunity postconflict justice, we argue that international processes are adopted and implemented with the support of the host government and demonstrate international recognition of that government-a signal of state strength.These processes provide the same deterrent effect theorized above.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning

    Comprehensive trials are an ideal case for motivation postconflict justice as an instance where a government is willing to call its own to account.

    “Comprehensive trials represent an ideal case for motivation postconflict justice as an instance where a government is willing to call its own to account”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    The results support the theoretical argument that postconflict justice reduces conflict resumption by alleviating grievances and signaling government commitment to peace and reconciliation.

    “The results suggest strong support for our theoretical argument on how postconflict justice reduces the resumption of conflict by alleviating grievances in postconflict periods and signaling the government's commitment to peace and reconciliation.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    The PCJ dataset codes the process-specific variables necessary to test the hypotheses, such as the sender and target of each process.

    “Finally, the PCJ dataset codes the process-specific variables necessary to test our hypotheses, such as the sender and target of each process (discussed further below).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Binningsbø et al. 2012 source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisenone given

    The Hansen J statistic assumes that one instrument is valid in order to assess the other instruments.

    “The Hanson J statistic assumes that one instrument is valid in order to assess the other instruments.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Scholars argue that the Hansen J statistic should always be used to assess the exclusion restriction when the model is overidentified.

    “Nonetheless, scholars argue that it should always be used to assess the exclusion restriction when the model is overidentified (Baum 2006).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Baum 2006

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Premisereasoning

    For exiles and purges, the target of the process does not matter; any action in this form will be viewed as a signal of state power.

    “For exiles and purges, the target of the process does not matter; any action in this form will be viewed as a signal of state power.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisereasoning

    Because of the two coding rules, the PCJ dataset includes only eight truth commissions, unlike other compilations such as Hayner's (2011) list, which includes forty truth commissions.

    “Because of these two rules, the PCJ dataset includes only eight truth commissions, unlike other compilations such as Hayner's (2011) list, which includes forty truth commissions.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Hayner's (2011)

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data

    As a robustness check, estimating models on specific postconflict periods (ten, fifteen, and twenty years) yields results consistent with those reported in the main analysis.

    “Finally, as a robustness check, we estimate our models on specific postconflict periods (ten, fifteen, and twenty years) and the results are consistent with those reported here.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductcitation

    Matching methods using the coarsened exact matching (CEM) procedure were conducted.

    “Second, we conduct matching methods using the coarsened exact matching (CEM) procedure (Iacus, King, and Porro 2011).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Iacus, King, and Porro 2011

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    Amnesty and reparations that only benefit the government (or its supporters) are not expected to reduce grievances among individuals most likely to mobilize in future rebellions.

    “We exclude amnesty and reparations that only benefit the government (or its supporters) as we do not expect these processes to reduce grievances among those individuals most likely to mobilize in future rebellions.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductown data

    In the supplementary appendix, additional models with alternative coding specifications for postconflict justice variables were estimated to ensure robustness of the results.

    “In the supplementary appendix, we estimate several additional models with alternative coding specifications for our postconflict justice variables to ensure the robustness of our results.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    Dropping trials implemented by the international community to ensure the rationale yields results consistent with those reported below.

    “However, to ensure our rationale, we drop trials implemented by the international community, and our results remain consistent with those reported below.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisereasoning

    Postconflict justice implemented by the party not in power following the conflict is excluded because it is not a measure of state strength.

    “We exclude postconflict justice implemented by the party not in power following the conflict as these are not a measure of state strength.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    Several control variables are statistically significant and in the expected direction, suggesting the model is well specified.

    “Finally, as Table 1 indicates, several of our control variables are statistically significant and in the expected direction, suggesting that the model is well specified.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    The coding of postconflict justice variables is designed to correspond with the theoretical framework (sender and target) rather than relying only on the presence or absence of a process.

    “Second, we pay special attention to the sender (initiator) and target of the process in order to ensure that the measurement of our key variables corresponds with our theory.”
    • Also stated in: § Theoretical Variables of Interest · plain
      “We account for important variation within the process by coding our postconflict justice variables in accordance with our theoretical predictions regarding sender and target rather than relying on only the presence or absence of a given process in a postconflict period.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The PCJ data include all postconflict justice activities related to internal conflicts as coded by Gleditsch et al. (2002) and use the conflict-episode structure from the Conflict Termination dataset (Kreutz 2008).

    “The PCJ data include all postconflict justice activities related to internal conflicts as coded by Gleditsch et al. (2002) and use the conflict-episode structure from the Conflict Termination dataset (Kreutz 2008).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Gleditsch et al. (2002) source
    • cites Kreutz 2008

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    The Liberian Truth Commission was designed to deal with the root causes of the crisis in Liberia, including human rights violations.

    “the Liberian Truth Commission implemented in the immediate aftermath of the conflict was designed”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Accra Agreement 2003

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    While the coding rules limit the overall sample of truth commissions, the rules ensure that the study tests the effectiveness of justice processes that relate specifically to armed conflicts.

    “While we acknowledge that these coding rules limit the overall sample of truth commissions, the rules ensure that we test the effectiveness of justice processes that relate specifically to armed conflicts (e.g., postconflict justice).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

    Interpretationown data

    The results strongly imply that interested parties should promote specific forms of postconflict justice.

    “But our results strongly imply that interested parties should promote specific forms of postconflict justice.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Individual motivations for fighting and recruiting play a critical role in why groups rebel and in crafting policies to prevent rebellion.

    “They highlight the critical role of individual motivations for fighting and recruiting when it comes to why groups rebel, and ultimately for crafting policies to prevent rebellion.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

    Interpretationown data

    The findings speak to the debate over motivation and opportunity within the conflict studies literature.

    “Our findings speak to the debate over motivation and opportunity within the conflict studies literature”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
66 of 66

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Individuals are more likely to participate in renewed fighting when they harbor grievances against the government.

    “Drawing on the conflict literature, we assume that individuals are more likely to participate in renewed fighting when they harbor grievances against the government (for example, Cederman, Weidmann, and Gleditsch 2011, 481;Davies 1962, 6-9;Gurr 1970).”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    In the immediate postconflict period, the feasibility of relaunching conflict is high because weapons remain in circulation, fighters may not yet be decommissioned, and governments may be destabilized.

    “Further, the feasibility of relaunching the fight is high in this period as weapons are still in circulation, fighters may not yet be decommissioned, and governments may be destabilized due to the conflict.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    No literature suggests that the diffusion of postconflict justice is a predictor of conflict recurrence.

    “At the same time, we are unaware of any literature that suggests that the diffusion of postconflict justice is a predictor of conflict recurrence.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Endogeneity is a potential serious threat to inference in observational data.

    “we recognize that endogeneity is an important consideration and a potential serious threat to inference.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The diffusion variables used as instruments affect conflict recurrence only through their effect on postconflict justice (exclusion restriction).

    “Within this analysis, the endogenous variables (motivation and opportunity postconflict justice) are regressed on the diffusion variables plus the control variables from the main models.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    There can be no omitted variable bias when all potential confounders are included.

    “as there can be no omitted variable bias when we include all potential cofounders.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Matching addresses endogeneity using observables, and observed values are correlated with unobservables, which helps mitigate omitted variable bias.

    “While matching addresses endogeneity using observables, it is likely that the observed values are correlated with the unobservables, which helps to mitigate omitted variable bias.”
7 of 7

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • The purge hazard ratio is above, not below, one

    Minor

    The text says all three opportunity-process hazard ratios are below one, but Table 1 reports a purge hazard ratio of 1.089.

  • The definition of comprehensive trials conflicts with its coding rule

    Minor

    One definition requires comprehensive trials to examine wrongdoing by both sides, while the coding rule also includes trials targeting only the government's own forces.

2 of 2

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 6

  1. 2006, An Introduction to Modern Econometrics using Stata
  2. 1995, Transitional Justice: How Emerging Democracies Reckon with Former Regimes
  3. 2017, “Justice During Armed Conflict from 1949 through 2011: A New Dataset.”, Journal of Conflict Resolution
  4. 2002, Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800–2002. Dataset Users’ Manual
  5. 1972, “Capability Distribution, Uncertainty, and Major Power War, 1820–1965.”, 19
  6. 2010, “The Turn to Truth: Trends in Truth Commission Experimentation.”, Journal of Human Rights, 9, 45, 10.1080/14754830903530326 · DOI

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Related

Authors
Loyle, C. E., & Appel, B. J.
Affiliations
  • Peace Research Institute Oslo (NO)
  • Michigan State University (US)
ORCID
Venue
International Studies Quarterly
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Published
2017-09-01
Volume
61
Issue
3
Pages
690-703
ISSN
  • 0020-8833 (ISSN-L)
  • 1468-2478
DOI
10.1093/isq/sqx045
OpenAlex
W2768193518
Cited by
78
References
79
Citations by year
2026: 16 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 27 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 3 · 2018: 2
FWCI
6.98
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Locations
International Studies Quarterly (publishedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Peacebuilding and International Security
  • Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › War, Law, and Justice
Keywords
conflict recurrence, truth commissions, amnesty, reparations, trial, civil war, sustainable peace, judicial institutions

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-11.

Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-11.

Cited sources are checked by gpt-6-sol.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review