The effect of warfare on the environment
Abstract
Does warfare affect the environment? This question has received some theoretical and empirical attention, but none of the extant studies has employed large-N statistical models. This article theorizes the possible effects of warfare on the environment and estimates large-N statistical models of these effects on CO2 emissions per capita, NOX emissions per capita, the rate of change in forested area, and a composite indicator of environmental stress reduction. The results indicate that warfare significantly affects the environment, but the signs and sizes of these effects depend on the environmental attribute (whether the fighting is at home or abroad) and development (whether the fighting country is developed or less developed). Warfare reduces CO2 emissions, but the effect is weaker in less developed countries (LDCs) than in developed countries (DCs). Warfare increases deforestation when fought at home and promotes forest growth when fought abroad, particularly in the LDCs. Warfare at home reduces NOX emissions for the LDCs and increases them for the DCs; warfare abroad increases NOX emissions for both the DCs and LDCs. Finally, warfare increases aggregated environmental stress, particularly for the LDCs when fought at home and for the DCs when fought abroad. The sizes of these effects are on par with or larger than the mandated or recommended policy goals stated by the US government for changes in CO 2 and NOX emissions, and by the World Bank (and by implication the DCs driving its policy) for the rate of deforestation, during the coming decade.
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Armed conflict commonly leads to abandonment of agricultural land and other land-use changes.
“abandonment of agricultural land and other land-use changes”
From Vicious Circles: Violence, Vulnerability, and Climate Change (2021) · cites this paper as [163]
Armed conflict sometimes leads to a decline in deforestation.
“occasional decline in deforestation”
From Vicious Circles: Violence, Vulnerability, and Climate Change (2021) · cites this paper as [163]
Armed conflict commonly leads to increases in general environmental stress.
“increases in general environmental stress”
From Vicious Circles: Violence, Vulnerability, and Climate Change (2021) · cites this paper as [163]
Armed conflict commonly leads to illegal logging of tropical timber.
“illegal logging of tropical timber”
From Vicious Circles: Violence, Vulnerability, and Climate Change (2021) · cites this paper as [163]
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Self-citation
- Authors
- Reuveny, R., Mihalache-O'Keef, A. S., & Li, Q.
- Affiliations
- Indiana University (US)
- Roanoke College, Salem, VA
- Texas A&M University (US)
- ORCID
- Li, Quan
- Venue
- Journal of Peace Research
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2010-11-01
- Volume
- 47
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 749-761
- ISSN
- 0022-3433 (ISSN-L)
- 1460-3578
- OpenAlex
- W2148317945
- Cited by
- 75
- References
- 48
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 14 · 2023: 13 · 2022: 13 · 2021: 4 · 2020: 8 · 2019: 3 · 2018: 2 · 2017: 1 · 2016: 1 · 2015: 2 · 2014: 2 · 2013: 2 · 2012: 2
- FWCI
- 5.72
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of Peace Research (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law › Environmental and Biological Research in Conflict Zones
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Energy, Environment, Economic Growth
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Keywords
- war, CO2 emissions, NOx emissions, deforestation, forest growth, environmental stress, environmental policy targets
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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