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Cited by 212Political Conflict and GovernanceTransboundary Water Resource ManagementEnvironmental and Biological Research in Conflict Zones

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 34 of the 34 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Don’t blame the weather! Climate-related natural disasters and civil conflict

Slettebak, Rune T·2012·Journal of Peace Research
DOI 10.1177/0022343311425693
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Abstract

Abstract The issue of climate change and security has received much attention in recent years. Still, the results from research on this topic are mixed and the academic community appears to be far from a consensus on how climate change is likely to affect stability and conflict risk in affected countries. This study focuses on how climate-related natural disasters such as storms, floods, and droughts have affected the risk of civil war in the past. The frequency of such disasters has risen sharply over the last decades, and the increase is expected to continue due to both climate change and demographic changes. Using multivariate methods, this study employs a global sample covering 1950 to the present in order to test whether adding climate-related natural disasters to a well-specified model on civil conflict can increase its explanatory power. The results indicate that this is the case, but that the relation is opposite to common perceptions: Countries that are affected by climate-related natural disasters face a lower risk of civil war. One worrying facet of the claims that environmental factors cause conflict is that they may contribute to directing attention away from more important conflict-promoting factors, such as poor governance and poverty. There is a serious risk of misguided policy to prevent civil conflict if the assumption that disasters have a significant effect on war is allowed to overshadow more important causes.

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Citations

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Research works printed but not linked: 15

  1. Birkmann, 2006, Measuring vulnerability to promote disaster-resilient societies: Conceptual frameworks and definitions, 9
  2. Buhaug, 2010, Implications of climate change for armed conflict, 75
  3. CRED, 2007, EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database
  4. Disaster research group, 1961, Field studies of disaster behavior: An inventory
  5. Enia, 2008, Peace in its wake? The 2004 tsunami and internal conflict in Indonesia and Sri Lanka, Journal of Public and International Affairs, 19, 7
  6. Fritz, 1961, Disaster, 651
  7. Fritz, 1996, Disasters and mental health: Therapeutic principles drawn from disaster studies, Historical and Comparative Disaster Series 10
  8. Goldstone, 2001, Demography, environment, and security, 38
  9. Heston, 2009, Penn World Table Version 6.3
  10. IPCC, 2007, Climate Change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group 2 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
  11. IPCC, 2007, Climate Change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
  12. Marshall, 2009, Polity IV Project
  13. Prince, 1920, Catastrophe and social change: Based upon a sociological study of the Halifax Disaster. PhD thesis
  14. US Strategic Bombing Survey, 1947, The Effects of Strategic Bombing on German Morale
  15. US Strategic Bombing Survey, 1947, The Effects of Strategic Bombing on Japanese Morale

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Metadata

Authors
Slettebak, R. T.
Affiliations
Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NO)
Corresponding author
Slettebak, Rune T
Venue
Journal of Peace Research
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Published
2012-01-01
Volume
49
Issue
1
Pages
163-176
ISSN
  • 0022-3433 (ISSN-L)
  • 1460-3578
DOI
10.1177/0022343311425693
OpenAlex
W1964983209
Cited by
212
References
34
Citations by year
2026: 9 · 2025: 11 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 14 · 2022: 19 · 2021: 12 · 2020: 25 · 2019: 16 · 2018: 15 · 2017: 12 · 2016: 18 · 2015: 16 · 2014: 13 · 2013: 7 · 2012: 13
FWCI
51.69
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Licence
Locations
Journal of Peace Research (publishedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Transboundary Water Resource Management
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law › Environmental and Biological Research in Conflict Zones
Keywords
civil conflict, civil war risk, climate change and security, storms, floods, drought, disaster frequency, governance, poverty

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