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Cited by 1,286Political Conflict and GovernanceNatural Resources and Economic DevelopmentPeacebuilding and International Security

Sensitivity Analysis of Empirical Results on Civil War Onset

Hegre, Håvard, Sambanis, Nicholas·2006·Journal of Conflict Resolution
DOI 10.1177/0022002706289303
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Abstract

In the literature on civil war onset, several empirical results are not robust or replicable across studies. Studies use different definitions of civil war and analyze different time periods, so readers cannot easily determine if differences in empirical results are due to those factors or if most empirical results are just not robust. The authors apply a methodology for organized specification tests to check the robustness of empirical results. They isolate causes of variation in empirical results by using the same definition of civil war and analyzing the same time period while systematically exploring the sensitivity of eighty-eight variables used to explain civil war in the literature. Several relationships with the onset of civil wars prove robust: large population and low income levels, low rates of economic growth, recent political instability and inconsistent democratic institutions, small military establishments and rough terrain, and war-prone and undemocratic neighbors. Variables representing ethnic difference in the population are robust only in relation to lower level armed conflict.

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Crossref · 10.1177/0022002706289303

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  • Hegre and Sambanis (2006) confirm that many factors compatible with the greed and opportunity logics appear to be the most robustly related to civil-war onset, with the partial exception of the pacifying effect exerted by democracy.

    “In a comprehensive econometric survey, Hegre and Sambanis (2006) confirm that many of the factors that are compatible with the greed and opportunity logics appear to be the most robustly related to civil-war onset, with the partial exception of the pacifying effect exerted by democracy.”

    From Dynamics and Logics of Civil War (2017) · cites this paper as Hegre and Sambanis (2006)

  • The models did not include any interaction effects.

    “Furthermore, like previous studies (e.g., Hegre & Sambanis, 2006), we did not include any interaction effects in our models.”

    From Correlates of Voter Turnout (2023) · cites this paper as Hegre & Sambanis, 2006

  • Individuals will expect to incur higher costs for fighting, making them less willing to resume violence and/or support a rebel group.

    “As a result, individuals will expect to incur higher costs for fighting, making them less willing to resume violence and/or support a rebel group (Goodwin and Skocpol 1989, 497;Hegre and Sambanis 2006, 528-29;Tilly 1978).”

    From Conflict Recurrence and Postconflict Justice: Addressing Motivations and Opportunities for Sustainable Peace (2017) · cites this paper as Hegre and Sambanis 2006

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Authors
Hegre, H., & Sambanis, N.
Affiliations
  • Precipio (United States) (US)
  • Yale University (US)
ORCID
Venue
Journal of Conflict Resolution
Publisher
SAGE Publications
Published
2006-08
Volume
50
Issue
4
Pages
508-535
ISSN
  • 0022-0027 (ISSN-L)
  • 1552-8766
DOI
10.1177/0022002706289303
OpenAlex
W2131830082
Cited by
1,286
References
4
Citations by year
2026: 30 · 2025: 29 · 2024: 22 · 2023: 47 · 2022: 43 · 2021: 71 · 2020: 123 · 2019: 93 · 2018: 74 · 2017: 67 · 2016: 79 · 2015: 73 · 2014: 88 · 2013: 81 · 2012: 77
FWCI
163.68
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Licence
journals.sagepub.com/page/policies/text-and-data-mining-license (tdm)
Locations
  • Journal of Conflict Resolution (publishedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • Virtual Defense Library (Ministerio de Defensa) (submittedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Natural Resources and Economic Development
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Peacebuilding and International Security
Keywords
civil war onset, robustness of empirical results, specification tests, sensitivity analysis, population size, economic growth, political instability, democratic institutions, military establishment, terrain, ethnic diversity, armed conflict

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