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Organized violence, 1989–2019
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Abstract This article reports on trends in organized violence, building on new data by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). The defeat of Islamic State (IS) in Syria and Iraq has pushed the number of fatalities, almost 75,600, to its lowest level since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011. However, this de-escalation in Syria is countered by increased violence in Africa, as IS and other transnational jihadist groups have relocated their efforts there. Furthermore, violence has continued to increase in Afghanistan; UCDP recorded more than 31,200 fatalities in Afghanistan in 2019, which accounts for 40% of all fatalities from organized violence across the globe. The general decline in fatalities from organized violence does not correspond with the trend in the number of active conflicts, which remained on a historically high level. UCDP recorded 54 state-based conflicts in 2019, including seven wars. Twenty-eight state-based conflicts involved IS (Islamic State), al-Qaida or their affiliates. In the past decade, conflicts involving these transnational jihadist groups have driven many of the trends in organized violence.
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“The empirical trends and evidence provided in this article cover state-based (civil) armed conflict, non-state (communal) conflict, and one-sided (terrorist/repression) conflict-by some margin the dominant forms of contemporary conflict(32).”
From Vicious Circles: Violence, Vulnerability, and Climate Change (2021) · cites this paper as [32]
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Metadata
- Authors
- Pettersson, T., & Öberg, M.
- Affiliations
- Uppsala University (SE)
- Corresponding author
- Pettersson, Therése
- Venue
- Journal of Peace Research
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2020-06-16
- Volume
- 57
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 597-613
- ISSN
- 0022-3433 (ISSN-L)
- 1460-3578
- OpenAlex
- W4251067276
- Cited by
- 291
- References
- 7
- Citations by year
- 2026: 26 · 2025: 26 · 2024: 30 · 2023: 60 · 2022: 70 · 2021: 67 · 2020: 11
- FWCI
- 69.41
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Journal of Peace Research (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Uppsala University Publications (Uppsala University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Politics and Conflicts in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Middle East
- Keywords
- organized violence, conflict fatalities, Islamic State, al-Qaeda, Syrian civil war, Afghanistan conflict, Africa, violence trends
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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