Narrative Construction as Sensemaking: How a Central Bank Thinks

Abstract

How do elite policy-making groups make sense of complex and ambiguous environments while remaining consistent with the group’s institutionalized operating model? This paper identifies a sensemaking process based in shared narrative construction. It is a social process of pattern recognition involving abduction, the comparison of culturally approved models to the current conditions to establish relevant facts and events; plotting, the reordering of those facts and events into a plausible narrative; and selective retention, the collective negotiation of a policy choice that fits the emerging narrative. This paper uses verbatim transcripts of meetings at the Federal Reserve to explore how policy makers use a logic of appropriateness to identify relevant cues and integrate them with existing models by weaving sensible plots. These plots are designed to control the supply of money and credit and maintain the legitimacy of the central bank.