Forecasting in International Relations: One Quest, Three Approaches
Open accessAbstract
We consider the advantages and disadvantages of three different approaches that are used for forecasting international politics.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Meadows, D. H., Meadows, D. L., Randers, J., & Behrens, W. W. (2012) · Yale University Press eBooks · doi:10.12987/9780300188479-012 · Cited by 5,037 · see citing works
Triangulating Peace: Democracy, Interdependence, and International Organizations
Ikenberry, G. J., Russett, B. M., & Oneal, J. R. (2001) · Foreign Affairs · doi:10.2307/20050168 · Cited by 1,397 · see citing works
Ruist, E., & Theil, H. (1967) · Ekonomisk Tidskrift · doi:10.2307/3439127 · Cited by 1,224 · see citing works
Wolfers, J., & Zitzewitz, E. (2004) · Journal of Economic Perspectives · doi:10.1257/0895330041371321 · Cited by 889 · see citing works
A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability
Goldstone, J. Α., Bates, R. H., Epstein, D., Gurr, T. R., Lustik, M. B., Marshall, M. G., Ulfelder, J., & Woodward, M. R. (2009) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00426.x · Cited by 861 · see citing works
The perils of policy by p-value: Predicting civil conflicts
Ward, M. D., Greenhill, B. D., & Bakke, K. M. (2010) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343309356491 · Cited by 476 · see citing works
(2008) · doi:10.1126/science.1157679 · Cited by 406 · see citing works
On the Frequency of Severe Terrorist Events
Clauset, A. J., Young, M., & Gleditsch, K. S. (2007) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002706296157 · Cited by 342 · see citing works
Prediction market accuracy in the long run
Berg, J. E., Nelson, F. D., & Rietz, T. A. (2008) · International Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2008.03.007 · Cited by 316 · see citing works
Crisis Early Warning and Decision Support: Contemporary Approaches and Thoughts on Future Research
O'Brien, S. (2010) · International Studies Review · doi:10.1111/j.1468-2486.2009.00914.x · Cited by 309 · see citing works
Improving Forecasts of State Failure
King, G., & Zeng, L. (2001) · World Politics · doi:10.1353/wp.2001.0018 · Cited by 273 · see citing works
Improving Quantitative Studies of International Conflict: A Conjecture
Beck, N. L., King, G., & Zeng, L. (2000) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s0003055400220078 · Cited by 258 · see citing works
Disputes, Democracies, and Dependencies: A Reexamination of the Kantian Peace
Ward, M. D., Siverson, R. M., & Cao, X. (2007) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1111/j.1540-5907.2007.00269.x · Cited by 194 · see citing works
Location, Location, Location: An MCMC Approach to Modeling the Spatial Context of War and Peace
Ward, M. D., & Gleditsch, K. S. (2002) · Political Analysis · doi:10.1093/pan/10.3.244 · Cited by 168 · see citing works
Real Time, Time Series Forecasting of Inter- and Intra-State Political Conflict
Brandt, P. T., Freeman, J. R., & Schrodt, P. A. (2011) · Conflict Management and Peace Science · doi:10.1177/0738894210388125 · Cited by 166 · see citing works
Evaluating political decision-making models
Achen, C. H. (2006) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511492082.011 · Cited by 104 · see citing works
Cluster-Based Early Warning Indicators for Political Change in the Contemporary Levant
Schrodt, P. A., & Gerner, D. J. (2000) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.2307/2586209 · Cited by 95 · see citing works
Bargaining Power in the European Union: An Evaluation of Competing Game-Theoretic Models
Schneider, G. E., Finke, D., & Bailer, S. (2009) · Political Studies · doi:10.1111/j.1467-9248.2009.00774.x · Cited by 94 · see citing works
Self-citationPreventing Genocide: How the Early Use of Force Might Have Succeeded in Rwanda.
Feil, S. (1998) · Defense Technical Information Center (DTIC) · Cited by 92 · see citing works
Rustad, S. A., Buhaug, H., Falch, Å., & Gates, S. (2011) · Conflict Management and Peace Science · doi:10.1177/0738894210388122 · Cited by 90 · see citing works
Serbian Compliance or Defiance in Kosovo?
Pevehouse, J. C. W., & Goldstein, J. S. (1999) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002799043004007 · Cited by 90 · see citing works
Szyliowicz, J. S. (1986) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.2307/1960943 · Cited by 80 · see citing works
Forecasting political events: the future of Hong Kong
Burchill, C. S. (1986) · International Affairs · doi:10.2307/2620328 · Cited by 65 · see citing works
Exploring the Past, Anticipating the Future: A Symposium
Schneider, G. E., Gleditsch, N. P., & Carey, S. C. (2010) · International Studies Review · doi:10.1111/j.1468-2486.2009.00909.x · Cited by 61 · see citing works
Self-citationDecision-Making Models, Rigor and New Puzzles
de Mesquita, B. B. (2004) · European Union Politics · doi:10.1177/1465116504040448 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
A New Model for Predicting Policy Choices
de Mesquita, B. B. (2011) · Conflict Management and Peace Science · doi:10.1177/0738894210388127 · Cited by 45 · see citing works
Hough, S. E. (2009) · Princeton University Press eBooks · doi:10.1515/9781400831807 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
A global risk assessment model for civil wars
Rost, N., Schneider, G., & Kleibl, J. (2009) · Social Science Research · doi:10.1016/j.ssresearch.2009.06.007 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
Self-citationAssessing Risk and Opportunity in Conflict Studies
Poe, S. C., Rost, N., & Carey, S. C. (2006) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002706289181 · Cited by 36 · see citing works
Self-citationF ORECASTING FOR P OLICY M AKING IN THE P OST –C OLD W AR P ERIOD
Feder, S. A. (2002) · Annual Review of Political Science · doi:10.1146/annurev.polisci.5.102601.115116 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Hough, S. E. (2010) · Princeton University Press eBooks · doi:10.1515/9781400883547 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Forecasting European Union politics: Real-time forecasts in political time series analysis
Bechtel, M. M., & Leuffen, D. (2010) · European Union Politics · doi:10.1177/1465116509360846 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Die Prognosegüte von Wahlbörsen und Meinungsumfragen zur Bundestagswahl 2005
Schaffer, L. M., & Schneider, G. E. (2005) · Politische Vierteljahresschrift · doi:10.1007/s11615-005-0307-9 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Self-citation
Flagged first, then by citations
2 of the 35 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.
Research works printed but not linked: 12
- [2]2. Arrow, Kenneth J., et al. 2008. Economics: The promise of prediction markets. Science 320(5878):877-878.
- [7]7. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. 2002. Predicting Politics. Columbus, OH: Ohio State University Press.
- [13]13. Feder, Stanley A 1995. Factions and policon: New ways to analyze politics. In Inside CIA's Private World: Declassified Articles from the Agency's Internal Journal, 1955-1992, ed.
- [14]14. H. Bradford Westerfield, pp. 274-222. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
- [15]15. Feder, Stanley A 2002. Forecasting for policy making in the post-Cold War period. Annual Review of Political Science 5: 111-125.
- [18]18. Hempel, Carl G. 1963. Explanation and prediction by covering laws. In Philosophy of Science: The Delaware Seminal; Vo1.1, ed. Bernard H. Baumrin, pp. 107-133. New York: Wiley.
- [22]22. Morgenstern, Oskar. 1928. Wirtschaftsprognose. Eine Untersuchung ihrer Voraussetzungen und Moglichkeiten [Economic Forecasting: An Examination of its Preconditions and Possibilities]. Vienna: Julius Springer.
- [30]30. Schneider, Gerald. 2012. Banking on the broker: Forecasting conflict in the Levant with financial data. In Illuminating the Shadow of the Future: Scientific Prediction and the Human Condition, eds Frank Wayman, Paul Williamson and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, in press. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.
- [32]32. Schneider, Gerald, Nils Petter Gleditsch and Sabine Carey. 2010. Exploring the past, anticipating the future. International Studies Review 12(1): 1-7.
- [33]33. Schrodt, Philip A., and Deborah 1. Gerner. 2000. Using cluster analysis to derive early warning indicators for political change in the Middle East, 1979-1996. American Political Science Review 94(4): 803-818.
- [34]34. The Economist. 2007. The perils of prediction, June 2nd. Letters to the editor, 15 July (www.
- [36]36. Thompson, Robert, Frans N. Stokman, Christopher H. Achen and Tomas Konig, eds. 2006. The European Union Decides: The Empirical Relevance of Policy Making Models. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Conclusion: epistemic communities, world order, and the creation of a reflective research program
Adler, E., & Haas, P. M. (1992) · International Organization · doi:10.1017/s0020818300001533 · Cited by 1,039 · see citing works
Improving Predictions using Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging
Montgomery, J., Hollenbach, F. M., & Ward, M. (2012) · Political Analysis · doi:10.1093/pan/mps002 · Cited by 143 · see citing works
Microfoundations in international relations
Kertzer, J. D. (2016) · Conflict Management and Peace Science · doi:10.1177/0738894216665488 · Cited by 156 · see citing works
Buyer Beware? Presidential Success through Supreme Court Appointments
Segal, J. A., Timpone, R. J., & Howard, R. M. (2000) · Political Research Quarterly · doi:10.1177/106591290005300306 · Cited by 122 · see citing works
Witmer, F. D. W., Linke, A. M., Ο’Loughlin, J., Gettelman, A., & Laing, A. (2017) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343316682064 · Cited by 108 · see citing works
Hegre, H., Metternich, N. W., Nygård, H. M., & Wucherpfennig, J. (2017) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343317691330 · Cited by 109 · see citing works
What Can We Learn from Predictive Modeling?
Cranmer, S., & Desmarais, B. A. (2017) · Political Analysis · doi:10.1017/pan.2017.3 · Cited by 102 · see citing works
Hymans, J. E. C. (2011) · International Security · doi:10.1162/isec_a_00059 · Cited by 70 · see citing works
Friedman, J. A., Baker, J. D., Mellers, B. A., Tetlock, P. E., & Zeckhauser, R. (2018) · International Studies Quarterly · doi:10.1093/isq/sqx078 · Cited by 58 · see citing works
Climate policy: from complexity to consensus?
Boasson, E. L., & Tatham, M. R. (2022) · Journal of European Public Policy · doi:10.1080/13501763.2022.2150272 · Cited by 52 · see citing works
Conflict Forecasting and Its Limits
Chadefaux, T. (2017) · Data Science · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2920514 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Will we see helping hands? Predicting civil war mediation and likely success
Clayton, G., & Gleditsch, K. (2014) · Conflict Management and Peace Science · doi:10.1177/0738894213508693 · Cited by 45 · see citing works
Forecasting Civil Conflict with Zero-Inflated Count Models
Bagozzi, B. E. (2015) · Civil Wars · doi:10.1080/13698249.2015.1059564 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Forecasting military expenditure
Böhmelt, T., & Bove, V. (2014) · Research & Politics · doi:10.1177/2053168014535909 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
What's wrong with the intelligence process?
Jervis, R. L. (1986) · International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence · doi:10.1080/08850608608434997 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Employing the shared socioeconomic pathways to predict CO 2 emissions
Böhmelt, T. (2017) · Environmental Science & Policy · doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2017.05.002 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Integrating the Quantitative Research on the Onset and Incidence of Violent Intrastate Conflicts
Trinn, C., & Wencker, T. (2020) · International Studies Review · doi:10.1093/isr/viaa023 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Schneider, G., Hadar, M., & Bosler, N. (2017) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343316683437 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Self-citationHandel, M. I. (1981) · Palgrave Macmillan UK eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-1-349-05828-0_16 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Forecasting in International Relations
Metternich, N. W., Gleditsch, K. S., & Dworschak, C. (2016) · doi:10.1093/obo/9780199743292-0179 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Getting beyond analysis by anecdote: improving intelligence analysis through the use of case studies
Dahl, E. J. (2017) · Intelligence & National Security · doi:10.1080/02684527.2017.1310967 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
The Role of Datasets on Scientific Influence within Conflict Research
Holt, T. V., Johnson, J. C., Moates, A. S., & Carley, K. M. (2016) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0154148 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Analyzing Oil Production in Developing Countries: A Case Study of Egypt
Choucri, N., Heye, C., & Lynch, M. (1990) · The Energy Journal · doi:10.5547/issn0195-6574-ej-vol11-no3-5 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
The Effect of Age Structure on the Abrogation of Military Alliances
Kim, T., & Sciubba, J. D. (2015) · International Interactions · doi:10.1080/03050629.2014.948156 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
The development of a pattern model for social forecasting
Gappert, G. (1973) · Futures · doi:10.1016/0016-3287(73)90004-9 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
An automated pattern recognition system for conflict
Chadefaux, T. (2023) · Journal of Computational Science · doi:10.1016/j.jocs.2023.102074 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
International studies in an unpredictable world: still avoiding the difficult problems?
Fomin, I. V., Павлович, К. К., Ananyev, B., Neklyudov, N. N., Bondik, A., Glushkov, P., Safina, A., Stolyarova, S., Tkach, D., Vedernikova, O., et al. (2020) · European Journal of International Relations · doi:10.1177/1354066120948124 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Rapid ethnographic assessment for cultural mapping
Holt, T. V., Johnson, J. C., Carley, K. M., Brinkley, J. D., & Diesner, J. (2013) · Poetics · doi:10.1016/j.poetic.2013.05.004 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
The Gas Game: Simulating Decision‐Making in the European Union's External Natural Gas Policy
Grabau, M., & Hegelich, S. (2016) · Swiss Political Science Review · doi:10.1111/spsr.12202 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Bressan, S., Nygård, H. M., & Seefeldt, D. (2019) · Refubium (Universitätsbibliothek der Freien Universität Berlin) · doi:10.17169/refubium-26117 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Forecasting the 2016 General Election in Jamaica
Charles, C. A. D., & Reid, G. (2016) · Commonwealth and Comparative Politics · doi:10.1080/14662043.2016.1216729 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos in Arms Race Models
Mayer‐Kress, G. (1992) · Woodward Conference · doi:10.1007/978-1-4613-9229-3_6 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Predicting the intensity and location of violence in war
Beger, A. (2012) · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Vor dem Schleier des Nichtwissens
Lipschutz, R. D. (1998) · VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-322-95110-6_3 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
The Rise, Fall and Rebirth of Foreign Policy Planning in Brazil (1949-2018)
Farias, R. D. S. (2021) · The Hague Journal of Diplomacy · doi:10.1163/1871191x-bja10076 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Tipping Points: Challenges in Analyzing International Crisis Escalation
Chen, C., Roberts, J. A., Adhikari, S., Asal, V. H., Beardsley, K. C., Gonzalez, E., Jahanbani, N., James, P., Lobell, S. E., Ripsman, N. M., et al. (2022) · International Studies Review · doi:10.1093/isr/viac024 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Policy Analysis for Advising Rulers1
Dror, Y. (1984) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-08-030830-2.50011-8 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Does counterinsurgency fuel civil war? Peru and Syria compared
Mucha, W. (2013) · Critical Studies on Terrorism · doi:10.1080/17539153.2013.765704 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Neural Networks and Political Science: Testing the Methodological Frontiers
Wordliczek, Ł. (2023) · Empiria Revista de metodología de ciencias sociales · doi:10.5944/empiria.57.2023.36429 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Evidence-Informed Prevention of Civil Wars and Mass Atrocities
Rudolf, P. (2016) · The International Spectator · doi:10.1080/03932729.2016.1152749 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Eberwein, W., & Nienstedt, H.-W. (1984) · Zeitschrift für Soziologie · doi:10.1515/zfsoz-1984-0202 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Viva la Revolución, or: Do Revolutions Lead to More Democracy?
Boese, V. A. (2015) · Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy · doi:10.1515/peps-2015-0027 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Sociocultural Models of Nuclear Deterrence
Morgan, G. P., Lanham, M. J., Frankenstein, W., & Carley, K. M. (2017) · IEEE Transactions on Computational Social Systems · doi:10.1109/tcss.2017.2727071 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Ánalise de conglomerados globais
van Dam, A. (1977) · Revista de Administração de Empresas · doi:10.1590/s0034-75901977000100006
Multilateral Organizations and Domestic Democratic Governance
Swagerty, R. S. (2015)
The Realism of Our Time? Futures, Fictions, and the Mid-Century Bang
Horn, L., Mert, A., & Müller, F. (2023) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-13722-8_24
Истомин, И. А. (2024) · Journal of International Analytics · doi:10.46272/2587-8476-2024-15-2-36-56
Registering Theory-Based Predictions in Political Science
Miller, A. C. (2024) · PS Political Science & Politics · doi:10.1017/s1049096524000404
New Formats of International Cooperation of Ukraine: British-Polish-Ukrainian Trilateral Pact
Kolos, D. M. (2023) · Modern Historical and Political Issues · doi:10.31861/mhpi2023.47.86-98
On the Political Economy of Conflicts in the Middle East and Africa
Parent, O., & Zouache, A. (2025) · Economics of Transition and Institutional Change · doi:10.1111/ecot.70002
Walterskirchen, J. (2026) · Conflict Management and Peace Science · doi:10.1177/07388942261422045
- Authors
- Schneider, G., Gleditsch, N. P., & Carey, S.
- Affiliations
- University of Konstanz (DE)
- Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NO)
- University of Mannheim (DE)
- Venue
- Conflict Management and Peace Science
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Published
- 2011-02
- Volume
- 28
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 5-14
- ISSN
- 0738-8942 (ISSN-L)
- 1549-9219
- OpenAlex
- W2041187435
- Cited by
- 52
- References
- 35
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 1 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 2 · 2021: 1 · 2020: 2 · 2019: 1 · 2018: 2 · 2017: 8 · 2016: 6 · 2015: 4 · 2014: 1 · 2013: 3 · 2012: 2
- FWCI
- 15.45
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- nbn-resolving.de
- Locations
- Conflict Management and Peace Science (publishedVersion)
- KOPS (University of Konstanz) (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- MADOC (University of Mannheim) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › International Relations and Foreign Policy
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Forecasting Techniques and Applications
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Political Science Research and Education
- Keywords
- forecasting, international politics, international relations theory, forecasting methods
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
