Understanding and Managing the Unknown: The Nature of Uncertainty in Planning

Abstract

Individuals, organizations, and urban regions face a complex and uncertain future. Planning is about changing the future and therefore must try to understand what is known and unknown about the future. Planning involves understanding and managing uncertainty—focusing on what is unknown as well as what is known. Uncertainty arises from the environment or planning context— environmental uncertainty—but also from the planning process itself— process uncertainty. This article builds on research and practice to identify dimensions of uncertainty in planning. Understanding these dimensions will assist planners in establishing planning processes and in managing their ongoing dynamics. To be effective, planning needs to push the bounds of possibility, and this will raise uncertainty and the possibility of disagreement and failure.