Addressing discrepancies between ADHD prevalence and case identification estimates among U.S. children utilizing NSCH 2007–2012
Open accessAbstract
Objective: Among U.S. children, ADHD epidemiological estimates (3%-5%) vary significantly from case identification rates (over 11%), leading to confusion about true incidence and prevalence. We investigated the extent to which this discrepancy could be resolved by definitional issues through reexamining the most cited U.S. survey of case identification, the National Survey of Children’s Health (NSCH). Method: Using NSCH 2007/2008 and 2011/2012, we stratified identification of ADHD by current status, severity, psychiatric comorbidity, and ADHD medication usage. Using those criteria, definitional strength was coded into “Definite,” “Probable,” “Doubtful,” and “No.” Results: “Definite” ADHD in caseness in 2007/2008 was 4.04%, increasing to 5.49% in 2011/2012, roughly corresponding to epidemiological estimates. “Definite” ADHD was the primary contributor to an overall increase in caseness over that period. Conclusion: This analysis strengthens understanding of discrepancies in estimated ADHD rates. When low confidence identification is considered false positives, ADHD case identification rates match epidemiological estimates more closely.
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Large US and Swedish studies show that ADHD has been diagnosed more often in recent years, reflecting shifts in administrative and clinical practice.
“large studies from the US and Sweden indicate that ADHD is more likely to have been diagnosed in recent years, which reflects changes in administrative and clinical practices”
From The World Federation of ADHD International Consensus Statement: 208 Evidence-based conclusions about the disorder (2021) · cites this paper as Song et al., 2019
The Introduction (page unavailable) reports rising ADHD identification among U.S. children from 2007 to 2011. The paper does not report a Swedish study, and its Discussion (page unavailable) argues against relaxed clinical diagnostic standards as the explanation for the increase during that period; it does not establish a change in administrative practice as the cause. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredClinicians are more likely to diagnose ADHD now than in earlier decades because recognition has improved.
“although due to increased recognition by clinicians, the disorder is more likely to be diagnosed today than in prior decades.”
From The World Federation of ADHD International Consensus Statement: 208 Evidence-based conclusions about the disorder (2021) · cites this paper as Song et al., 2019
The Discussion (page unavailable) reports increased ADHD case identification from 2007 to 2011 and suggests that greater awareness of how ADHD manifests in girls may explain part of that increase. It does not establish that improved clinician recognition generally caused ADHD to be more likely diagnosed today than in prior decades. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
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“Sweden indicate that ADHD is more likely to have been diagnosed in recent years, which reflects changes in administrative and clinical practices (Rydell et al., 2018; Song et al., 2019; Xu et al., 2018).”
Self-citation
- Authors
- Song, M., Dieckmann, N. F., & Nigg, J. T.
- Affiliations
- Oregon Health & Science University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Song, MinKyoung
- Venue
- Journal of Attention Disorders
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Published
- 2018-09-28
- Volume
- 23
- Issue
- 14
- Pages
- 1691-1702
- ISSN
- 1087-0547 (ISSN-L)
- 1557-1246
- PMC
- PMC6625923
- OpenAlex
- W2893642860
- Cited by
- 29
- References
- 35
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 1 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 2 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 8 · 2019: 1
- FWCI
- 2.94
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Journal of Attention Disorders (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute of Mental Health (R37MH059105)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Child and Adolescent Psychosocial and Emotional Development
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Autism Spectrum Disorder Research
- Keywords
- attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, ADHD prevalence, National Survey of Children's Health, diagnostic certainty, psychiatric comorbidity, ADHD medication use, ADHD symptom severity, false positives, children
- MeSH terms
- Child Health, Adolescent, Attention Deficit Disorder with Hyperactivity, Child, Child, Preschool, Female, Humans, Male, Population Surveillance, Probability, United States, Incidence, Prevalence
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