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Cited by 70Sports Analytics and PerformanceFinancial Markets and Investment StrategiesDecision-Making and Behavioral Economics

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 20 of the 20 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Bettor Misperceptions in the NBA: The Overbetting of Large Favorites and the “Hot Hand”

Paul, Rodney J., Weinbach, Andrew P.·2005·Journal of Sports Economics
DOI 10.1177/1527002504266861
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Abstract

Systematic bettor misperceptions are found in the NBA point spread gambling market for the seasons of 1995-1996 to 2001-2002. Evidence of the overbetting of favorites is found, with a strategy of betting big underdogs rejecting the null of a fair bet. Betting big home underdogs not only rejects a fair bet but is also shown to reject the null of no profitability. In addition, betting against winning streaks, as first suggested in the “hot-hand” article of Camerer and later tested by Brown and Sauer, is also shown to be profitable.

Overview

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Registry

Crossref · 10.1177/1527002504266861

Cites

20 of 20 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

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Citations

Cites

Show all 20 references

Research works printed but not linked: 3

  1. Camerer, C., 1989, American Economic Review, 79, 1257
  2. Roxborough, R., 1998, Sports book management: A guide for the legal bookmaker
  3. 10.2307/1061582 · DOI

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Metadata

Authors
Paul, R. J., & Weinbach, A. P.
Affiliations
  • St. Bonaventure University (US)
  • Armstrong Atlantic State University (US)
ORCID
Venue
Journal of Sports Economics
Publisher
SAGE Publications
Published
2005-11
Volume
6
Issue
4
Pages
390-400
ISSN
  • 1527-0025 (ISSN-L)
  • 1552-7794
DOI
10.1177/1527002504266861
OpenAlex
W2148822705
Semantic Scholar
1acac5c92157dbc08ca3ca2a51427ca98adaeddb
Cited by
70
References
20
Citations by year
2026: 3 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 1 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 2 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 5 · 2017: 3 · 2016: 5 · 2015: 3 · 2014: 3 · 2013: 3 · 2012: 6
FWCI
2.90
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Licence
journals.sagepub.com/page/policies/text-and-data-mining-license (tdm)
Locations
  • Journal of Sports Economics (publishedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Sports Analytics and Performance
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Finance › Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
Keywords
sports betting, home advantage, winning streaks, hot hand fallacy, market efficiency

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CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Bettor Misperceptions in the NBA: The Overbetting of Large Favorites and the “Hot Hand”. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1177/1527002504266861
The paper
Paul, R. J., & Weinbach, A. P. (2005). Bettor Misperceptions in the NBA: The Overbetting of Large Favorites and the “Hot Hand”. Journal of Sports Economics. https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002504266861

Data sources

Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.

Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).

Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.