Would school closure for the 2009 H1N1 influenza epidemic have been worth the cost?: a computational simulation of Pennsylvania
Open accessAbstract
BACKGROUND: During the 2009 H1N1 influenza epidemic, policy makers debated over whether, when, and how long to close schools. While closing schools could have reduced influenza transmission thereby preventing cases, deaths, and health care costs, it may also have incurred substantial costs from increased childcare needs and lost productivity by teachers and other school employees. METHODS: A combination of agent-based and Monte Carlo economic simulation modeling was used to determine the cost-benefit of closing schools (vs. not closing schools) for different durations (range: 1 to 8 weeks) and symptomatic case incidence triggers (range: 1 to 30) for the state of Pennsylvania during the 2009 H1N1 epidemic. Different scenarios varied the basic reproductive rate (R(0)) from 1.2, 1.6, to 2.0 and used case-hospitalization and case-fatality rates from the 2009 epidemic. Additional analyses determined the cost per influenza case averted of implementing school closure. RESULTS: For all scenarios explored, closing schools resulted in substantially higher net costs than not closing schools. For R(0) = 1.2, 1.6, and 2.0 epidemics, closing schools for 8 weeks would have resulted in median net costs of $21.0 billion (95% Range: $8.0 - $45.3 billion). The median cost per influenza case averted would have been $14,185 ($5,423 - $30,565) for R(0) = 1.2, $25,253 ($9,501 - $53,461) for R(0) = 1.6, and $23,483 ($8,870 - $50,926) for R(0) = 2.0. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that closing schools during the 2009 H1N1 epidemic could have resulted in substantial costs to society as the potential costs of lost productivity and childcare could have far outweighed the cost savings in preventing influenza cases.
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School closures decrease the workforce in health care and other important capacities by prompting more parents to stay home with children.
“they decrease the workforce in health care and other important capacities by prompting more parents to stay home with children”
From Precaution and proportionality in pandemic politics: democracy, state capacity, and COVID-19-related school closures around the world (2022) · cites this paper as Brown et al. 2011
The Methods (Economic model) say that parents of children needing care might miss work during school closures, and the Discussion describes lost parental productivity. The paper does not establish a reduction specifically in the health-care workforce or other important capacities; it models a possible effect rather than documenting that those workforces decreased. (LLM, conf=0.85)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredSchool closures are likely to have detrimental effects on student performance and well-being.
“are likely to have detrimental effects on student performance and well-being (e.g. Brown et al. 2011; CDC 2020).”
From Precaution and proportionality in pandemic politics: democracy, state capacity, and COVID-19-related school closures around the world (2022) · cites this paper as Brown et al. 2011
The Discussion’s Limitations section identifies loss of school lunch programs as a possible negative consequence of closure, which supports a concern about student well-being. The paper does not address effects on student performance; its analysis focuses on influenza transmission and economic costs. No page number is available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.74)
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- Authors
- Brown, S. T., Tai, J. H., Bailey, R. R., Cooley, P. C., Wheaton, W. D., Potter, M. A., Voorhees, R. E., LeJeune, M., Grefenstette, J. J., Burke, D. S., McGlone, S. M., & Lee, B. Y.
- Affiliations
- University of Pittsburgh (US)
- RTI International (US)
- Corresponding author
- Brown, Shawn T
- Venue
- BMC Public Health
- Published
- 2011-05-20
- Volume
- 11
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 353-353
- ISSN
- 1471-2458 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC3119163
- OpenAlex
- W1994172949
- Cited by
- 111
- References
- 39
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 5 · 2022: 6 · 2021: 11 · 2020: 11 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 5 · 2017: 3 · 2016: 9 · 2015: 8 · 2014: 15 · 2013: 14 · 2012: 13
- FWCI
- 10.36
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- BMC Public Health (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- D-Scholarship@Pitt (University of Pittsburgh) (acceptedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Funders
- Johns Hopkins University
- National Institutes of Health (5u54gm088491-10)
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (1P01TP000304-03)
- National Institute of General Medical Sciences (1U54GM088491-01-09)
- U.S. National Library of Medicine (R01LM009132)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Influenza Virus Research Studies
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Health Systems, Economic Evaluations, Quality of Life
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- Keywords
- school closures, 2009 H1N1 influenza, pandemic influenza, cost-benefit analysis, basic reproduction number, productivity loss, childcare costs, influenza transmission, Pennsylvania
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Child, Child, Preschool, Disease Outbreaks, Humans, Infant, Influenza, Human, Middle Aged, Monte Carlo Method, Pennsylvania, Schools, Models, Statistical, Models, Econometric, Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype, Young Adult
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