The DOI matches its Crossref record; 40 of the 40 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Prehistoric maritime migration in the Pacific islands: an hypothesis of ENSO forcing
Open accessAbstract
Long-distance human migration across the Pacific Ocean occurred during the late Holocene and originated almost entirely in the west. As prevailing tradewinds blow from the east, the mechanisms of prehistoric seafaring have been debated since the sixteenth century. Inadequacies in propositions of accidental or opportunistic drifting on occasional westerlies were exposed by early computer simulation. Experimental voyaging in large, fast, weatherly (windward-sailing) double-canoes, together with computer simulation incorporating canoe performance data and modern, averaged, wind conditions, has supported the traditional notion of intentional passage-making in a widely accepted hypothesis of upwind migration by strategic voyaging. The critical assumption that maritime technology and sailing conditions were effectively the same prehistorically as in the historical and modern records is, however, open to question. We propose here that maritime technology during the late-Holocene migrations did not permit windward sailing, and show that the episodic pattern of initial island colonization, which is disclosed in recent archaeological data, matches periods of reversal in wind direction toward westerlies, as inferred from the millennial-scale history of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation).
Overview
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In the citing paper
“Our data have narrowed the coincidence of dispersal throughout East Polynesia (A.D. ∼1200–1300) to a period of peak El Niño occurrence during the last millennium, when increased frequencies of tropical westerly and subtropical easterly winds favored access to the more remote islands (20).”
From High-precision radiocarbon dating shows recent and rapid initial human colonization of East Polynesia (2011) · cites this paper as [20]
Citations
Cites
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA.
Ochoa, S. (1996) · Current Biology · doi:10.1016/s0960-9822(09)00431-x · Cited by 2,783
Journal of the Polynesian Society
AUTHOR_ID, N. (1947) · Cited by 1,722
Moy, C. M., Seltzer, G. O., Rodbell, D. T., & Anderson, D. M. (2002) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature01194 · Cited by 1,595
Genesis and evolution of the 1997-98 El Nino
McPhaden, M. (1999) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.283.5404.950 · Cited by 1,307
The Prehistoric Exploration and Colonisation of the Pacific
Irwin, G. J. (1992) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511518225 · Cited by 463
El Nino and the Southern Oscillation
(2000) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511573125 · Cited by 409
Suppression of El Niño during the Mid‐Holocene by changes in the Earth's orbit
Clement, A. C., Seager, R., & Cane, M. A. (2000) · Paleoceanography · doi:10.1029/1999pa000466 · Cited by 405
Hawaiki, Ancestral Polynesia: An Essay in Historical Anthropology
Kirch, P. V., & Green, R. C. (2001) · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511613678 · Cited by 325
Hawaiki, Ancestral Polynesia: An Essay in Historical Anthropology.
Terrell, J. E. (2002) · Pacific Affairs · doi:10.2307/4127236 · Cited by 324
Modeling climate shift of El Nino variability in the Holocene
Liu, Z., Kutzbach, J. E., & Wu, L. (2000) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2000gl011452 · Cited by 315
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 13
- Anderson, A.J., 2000, Essays in honour of Arne Skjolsvold 75 years., 5, 73
- Athens, J.S., Pacific 2000: proceedings of the fifth international conference on Easter Island and the Pacific., 165
- Athens, J.S., 1999, Environment, vegetation change and early human settlement on the ‘Ewa plain: a cultural resource inventory of Naval Air Station, Barber's Point, O'ahu, Hawai'i. Part III: paleoenvironmental investigations
- Blust, R., Taipei, papers for the eighth international conference on Austronesian linguistics, 1
- Butler, B.M., 1994, Man and Culture in Oceania, 10, 15
- Campbell, I.C., 1995, Journal of World History, 6, 1
- Finney, B., 1979, Hokule'a, the way to Tahiti
- Irwin, G.J., 1998, Journal of the Polynesian Society, 107, 111
- Pawley, A., 1994, Austronesian terminologies: continuity and change, Pacific Linguistics, 127, 329
- Specht, J., 1997, Asian Perspectives, 36, 175
- Walter, R. and Anderson, A.J. 2002: The archaeology of Niue Island, West Polynesia. Bishop Museum Bulletin in Anthropology , 10-10.
- Wickler, S., Pacific 2000: proceedings of the fifth international conference on Easter Island and the Pacific., 185
- World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) Special Analysis Center, ‘New objective FSU winds’
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Items 101–172 of 172
Tang, Z., Mu, G., & Dongmei, C. (2009) · Environmental Geology · doi:10.1007/s00254-008-1670-9 · Cited by 14
Geleta, S. B., Briand, C. H., Folkoff, M. E., & Zaprowski, B. J. (2014) · Human Ecology · doi:10.1007/s10745-014-9665-5 · Cited by 16
Jia, Y., Huang, C., Pang, J., & Niu, J. (2008) · Journal of Geographical Sciences · doi:10.1007/s11442-008-0425-6 · Cited by 14
The sailing performance of ancient Polynesian canoes and the early settlement of East Polynesia
Irwin, G. J., Flay, R. G. J., Dudley, L., & Johns, D. A. (2022) · Archaeology in Oceania/Archæology & physical anthropology in Oceania · doi:10.1002/arco.5277 · Cited by 13
Li, D., Knudsen, M. F., Jiang, H., Olsen, J., Zhao, M., Li, T., Knudsen, K. L., Seidenkrantz, M., & Sha, L. (2012) · Journal of Quaternary Science · doi:10.1002/jqs.2562 · Cited by 13
Sutton, N., Summerhayes, G. R., & Ford, A. (2015) · Proceedings of the Prehistoric Society · doi:10.1017/ppr.2015.14 · Cited by 12
An isotopic analysis of Late Lapita and State Period diets in Tonga
Fenner, J. N., Herrscher, E., Valentin, F., & Clark, G. (2021) · Archaeological and Anthropological Sciences · doi:10.1007/s12520-020-01267-z · Cited by 12
Are islands islands? Some thoughts on the history of chalk and cheese
Spriggs, M. (2008) · ANU Press eBooks · doi:10.22459/ta29.06.2008.14 · Cited by 12
AN AUSTRONESIAN PRESENCE IN SOUTHERN JAPAN: EARLY OCCUPATION IN THE YAEYAMA ISLANDS.
Summerhayes, G. R., & Anderson, A. (2009) · Bulletin of the Indo-Pacific Prehistory Association · doi:10.7152/bippa.v29i0.9481 · Cited by 11
Self-citationA Critique of the ‘AD 1300 Event’, with Particular Reference to Palau
Fitzpatrick, S. M. (2010) · Journal of Pacific Archaeology · doi:10.70460/jpa.v1i2.15 · Cited by 11
Leppard, T. P. (2014) · The Journal of Island and Coastal Archaeology · doi:10.1080/15564894.2013.848957 · Cited by 11
Climate Change and the Rise of the Central Asian Silk Roads
Hill, D. J. (2019) · Socio-Environmental Dynamics along the Historical Silk Road · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-00728-7_12 · Cited by 12
Rogers, A. J., & Weisler, M. I. (2021) · Human Ecology · doi:10.1007/s10745-021-00297-y · Cited by 10
Roos, C. I., Field, J. S., & Dudgeon, J. (2023) · Nature Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1038/s41559-023-02212-8 · Cited by 10
Spriggs, M. (2010) · ANU Press eBooks · doi:10.22459/ta32.11.2010.13 · Cited by 10
Canuel, E. A., Brush, G. S., Cronin, T. M., Lockwood, R., & Zimmerman, A. R. (2017) · Developments in paleoenvironmental research · doi:10.1007/978-94-024-0990-1_20 · Cited by 10
The Archaeology of Prehistoric Oceania
Cochrane, E. E., & Hunt, T. L. (2017) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199925070.013.001 · Cited by 11
Roman, M., McWethy, D. B., Kehrwald, N., Erhenhi, E. O., Myrbo, A. E., Aliaga, J. M. R., Pauchard, A., Turetta, C., Barbante, C., Prebble, M., et al. (2021) · Quaternary Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.107115 · Cited by 11
Mulrennan, M. E. (2014) · Geological Society London Special Publications · doi:10.1144/sp388.21 · Cited by 10
Apocalypse now (and avoid the rush): human dimensions of climate change in the Indo‐Pacific
Lilley, I. A. (2008) · Archaeology in Oceania/Archæology & physical anthropology in Oceania · doi:10.1002/j.1834-4453.2008.tb00028.x · Cited by 9
Small island, ‘big swamp’, Kuiku Pad Reef: Sarbi 4200–3500 cal BP, western Torres Strait
Crouch, J. (2015) · Quaternary International · doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2015.02.011 · Cited by 9
An Isochrone Map of the Prehistoric Seascape around S amoa
Piazza, A. D. (2013) · Geographical Research · doi:10.1111/1745-5871.12037 · Cited by 9
Broodbank, C. (2008) · The Journal of Island and Coastal Archaeology · doi:10.1080/15564890801990771 · Cited by 9
Radiometric dating of the late Quaternary summer monsoon on the Loess Plateau, China
Stevens, T., & Lu, H. (2010) · Geological Society London Special Publications · doi:10.1144/sp342.8 · Cited by 8
Holocene glaciation in the mountains of Bulgaria
Gachev, E. M. (2020) · Mediterranean Geoscience Reviews · doi:10.1007/s42990-020-00028-3 · Cited by 8
The way of doing things: what Lapita pottery can tell us about the stories of Austronesian expansion
Chiu, S. (2012) · Cited by 8
Reassessing the environmental context of the Aitape Skull – The oldest tsunami victim in the world?
GOFF, J. R., Golitko, M., Cochrane, E. E., Curnoe, D., Williams, S., & Terrell, J. E. (2017) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0185248 · Cited by 8
Egan, S., & Burley, D. V. (2009) · Cited by 7
The long pause and the last pulse: Mapping East Polynesian colonisation
Thomas, T. (2008) · ANU Press eBooks · doi:10.22459/ta29.06.2008.07 · Cited by 7
Garling, S. (2007) · ANU Open Research (Australian National University) · doi:10.25911/5d7a26798f1c7 · Cited by 7
Central East Polynesia: an introduction
Allen, M. S., & Kahn, J. G. (2010) · Archaeology in Oceania/Archæology & physical anthropology in Oceania · doi:10.1002/j.1834-4453.2010.tb00079.x · Cited by 7
Land Use and the Human-Environment Interaction on Olosega Island, Manu'a, American Samoa
Quintus, S. (2011) · NDSU Repository (North Dakota State University) · Cited by 6
Modelling the impact of large-scale hydroclimate change on prehistoric Polynesian island life
Hipkiss, C. V., Sheffield, J., Langdon, P. G., & Sear, D. (2025) · Quaternary Environments and Humans · doi:10.1016/j.qeh.2025.100074 · Cited by 5
Fitzpatrick, S. M. (2022) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-99031-2_4 · Cited by 5
A Pre-Lapita Structure at Apalo, Arawe Islands, Papua New Guinea
Specht, J., Gosden, C., Lentfer, C., Jacobsen, G., Matthews, P. J., & Lindsay, S. (2016) · The Journal of Island and Coastal Archaeology · doi:10.1080/15564894.2015.1125972 · Cited by 5
The advent of the Anthropocene in Australasia
Bostock, H., Lowe, D. J., Gillespie, R., Priestley, R., Newnham, R. M., & Mooney, S. (2015) · Research Commons (University of Waikato) · Cited by 5
How and Why Did Agriculture Spread?
Bellwood, P. S. (2012) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9781139019514.010 · Cited by 5
Larsen, A., & Simpson, D. F., Jr. (2014) · Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution · doi:10.3389/fevo.2014.00056 · Cited by 5
Caribbean Kinship as Instituted Process
Keegan, W. F. (2018) · The Journal of Island and Coastal Archaeology · doi:10.1080/15564894.2018.1441201 · Cited by 4
Nagaoka, T., & Sheppard, P. J. (2021) · The Journal of Island and Coastal Archaeology · doi:10.1080/15564894.2020.1862369 · Cited by 4
Thomas, F. R. (2011) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-1-4419-8225-4_22 · Cited by 4
Human–climate–environment interactions in Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu during the past millennium
Camperio, G., Ladd, S. N., Prebble, M., Jonge, C. D., Schneider, T., Argiriadis, E., Lloren, R., Nelson, D. B., Delahaie, A., Krentscher, C., et al. (2025) · Frontiers in Earth Science · doi:10.3389/feart.2025.1613262 · Cited by 2
Dong, B., Prendergast, A. L., Ulm, S., Shirai, K., Drysdale, R. N., McNiven, I. J., Levchenko, V. A., Wong, H. K. Y., & Meekan, M. G. (2026) · Global and Planetary Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105717 · Cited by 2
Camperio, G., Ladd, S. N., Prebble, M., Lloren, R., Argiriadis, E., Nelson, D. B., Krentscher, C., & Dubois, N. (2024) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01831-8 · Cited by 2
Les environnements du Vanuatu de l’Holocène à nos jours : un état des lieux des connaissances
Combettes, C. (2016) · L Anthropologie · doi:10.1016/j.anthro.2016.03.003 · Cited by 2
East of Easter: Traces of human impact in the far-eastern Pacific
Flett, I., & Haberle, S. G. (2008) · ANU Press eBooks · doi:10.22459/ta29.06.2008.18 · Cited by 2
41 Polynesia, East and South, including transpacific migration
Anderson, A. (2013) · The Encyclopedia of Global Human Migration · doi:10.1002/9781444351071.wbeghm841 · Cited by 2
Self-citationLapita Archaeology in the Southwest Pacific
Thomas, F. R., Geraghty, P., & Matisoo-Smith, E. A. (2020) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-51726-1_3410-1 · Cited by 2
Optimum and Crisis in Early Civilizations, 3000–500 BC
Brooke, J. L. (2014) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9781139050814.010 · Cited by 1
Sand, C. (2010) · Société des Océanistes eBooks · doi:10.4000/books.sdo.1147 · Cited by 1
Thomson, V. A., Herrera, M. B., & Austin, J. J. (2022) · Developments in paleoenvironmental research · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-91127-0_3 · Cited by 1
Developing a South Pacific tephra framework: Initial results from a Samoan Holocene sequence
Bourne, A. J., Sear, D., Langdon, P. G., & Cronin, S. J. (2023) · Journal of Quaternary Science · doi:10.1002/jqs.3519 · Cited by 1
Montenegro, Á. (2024) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780197607770.013.17 · Cited by 1
Atholl John Anderson: No ordinary archaeologist
Leach, F. (2008) · ANU Press eBooks · doi:10.22459/ta29.06.2008.01 · Cited by 1
The Polynesian Voyaging Canoe: The Regionalization of Seafaring Technologies
Ranney, K. E. (2018) · Scholars' Bank (University of Oregon) · Cited by 1
In Memoriam: Richard Hugh Grove, 1955–2020
McNeill, J. R. (2020) · Environmental History · doi:10.1093/envhis/emaa057 · Cited by 1
Quaternary morphology and paleoenvironmental records of carbonate islands
Toomey, M. R. (2013) · Open Access Server of the Woods Hole Scientific Community (Woods Hole Scientific Community) · doi:10.1575/1912/6315
Pearce, C. E. M., & Pearce, F. (2010) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-90-481-3826-5_7
Challenging a Late First Settlement Date for New Zealand
Pearce, C. E. M., & Pearce, F. (2010) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-90-481-3826-5_11
Dating the First Settlement of New Zealand: A Power Law Analysis
Pearce, C. E. M., & Pearce, F. (2010) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-90-481-3826-5_15
Domestication, Agriculture, and the Rise of the State
Brooke, J. L. (2014) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9781139050814.020
Ancient and Medieval Agrarian Societies
Brooke, J. L. (2014) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9781139050814.021
Tsilikas, H. (2017) · Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG eBooks · doi:10.5771/9783845285191-71
Coordination in a changing environment
Matros, A., & Moser, S. (2015) · Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization · doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2014.12.026
Cochrane, E. E. (2020) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/obo/9780199766567-0237
The Adaptive Landscape of Human Migration
Bell, A. V. (2024) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198869252.013.56
Callaghan, J. (2025) · Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth System Science · doi:10.1071/es24045
Nunn, P. D., King, T., Kumar, R., Shivakoti, B. R., Zavar, E. M., Geraghty, P., Korovulavula, I., Kotra, K. K., Ram, A. R., & Sekinini, S. T. (2026) · Human Ecology · doi:10.1007/s10745-026-00685-2
Hipkiss, C. V., Langdon, P. E., Sheffield, J., Leng, M. J., Temple-Brown, C., & Sear, D. (2026) · Quaternary Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2026.110006
Brooke, J. L. (2014) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9781139050814.006
Metadata
- Authors
- Anderson, A., Chappell, J., Gagan, M., & Grove, R.
- Affiliations
- Australian National University (AU)
- Corresponding author
- Anderson, Atholl
- Venue
- The Holocene
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Published
- 2006-01
- Volume
- 16
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 1-6
- ISSN
- 0959-6836 (ISSN-L)
- 1477-0911
- OpenAlex
- W2040530913
- Cited by
- 173
- References
- 40
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 3 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 4 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 2 · 2018: 4 · 2017: 9 · 2016: 7 · 2015: 10 · 2014: 18 · 2013: 6 · 2012: 11
- FWCI
- 111.52
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- figshare.com
- Locations
- The Holocene (publishedVersion)
- ANU Open Research (Australian National University) (submittedVersion)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Anthropology › Pacific and Southeast Asian Studies
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › History › Global Maritime and Colonial Histories
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Archeology (arts and humanities) › Maritime and Coastal Archaeology
- Keywords
- Pacific Islands, ENSO, wind direction reversal, westerlies, island colonization, Late Holocene
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review