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Prehistoric maritime migration in the Pacific islands: an hypothesis of ENSO forcing
Open accessAbstract
Long-distance human migration across the Pacific Ocean occurred during the late Holocene and originated almost entirely in the west. As prevailing tradewinds blow from the east, the mechanisms of prehistoric seafaring have been debated since the sixteenth century. Inadequacies in propositions of accidental or opportunistic drifting on occasional westerlies were exposed by early computer simulation. Experimental voyaging in large, fast, weatherly (windward-sailing) double-canoes, together with computer simulation incorporating canoe performance data and modern, averaged, wind conditions, has supported the traditional notion of intentional passage-making in a widely accepted hypothesis of upwind migration by strategic voyaging. The critical assumption that maritime technology and sailing conditions were effectively the same prehistorically as in the historical and modern records is, however, open to question. We propose here that maritime technology during the late-Holocene migrations did not permit windward sailing, and show that the episodic pattern of initial island colonization, which is disclosed in recent archaeological data, matches periods of reversal in wind direction toward westerlies, as inferred from the millennial-scale history of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation).
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“Our data have narrowed the coincidence of dispersal throughout East Polynesia (A.D. ∼1200–1300) to a period of peak El Niño occurrence during the last millennium, when increased frequencies of tropical westerly and subtropical easterly winds favored access to the more remote islands (20).”
From High-precision radiocarbon dating shows recent and rapid initial human colonization of East Polynesia (2011) · cites this paper as [20]
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Self-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Anderson, A., Chappell, J., Gagan, M., & Grove, R.
- Affiliations
- Australian National University (AU)
- Corresponding author
- Anderson, Atholl
- Venue
- The Holocene
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Published
- 2006-01
- Volume
- 16
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 1-6
- ISSN
- 0959-6836 (ISSN-L)
- 1477-0911
- OpenAlex
- W2040530913
- Cited by
- 173
- References
- 40
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 3 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 4 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 2 · 2018: 4 · 2017: 9 · 2016: 7 · 2015: 10 · 2014: 18 · 2013: 6 · 2012: 11
- FWCI
- 111.52
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- figshare.com
- Locations
- The Holocene (publishedVersion)
- ANU Open Research (Australian National University) (submittedVersion)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Anthropology › Pacific and Southeast Asian Studies
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › History › Global Maritime and Colonial Histories
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Archeology (arts and humanities) › Maritime and Coastal Archaeology
- Keywords
- Pacific Islands, ENSO, wind direction reversal, westerlies, island colonization, Late Holocene
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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