Predicting schizophrenia: findings from the Edinburgh High-Risk Study
Open accessAbstract
Background: The hypothesis that schizophrenia is neurodevelopmental was investigated in a prospective study of young people with a postulated 10–15% risk for the development of schizophrenia. Aims: To determine premorbid variables distinguishing high-risk people who will go on to develop schizophrenia from those who will not. Method: A high-risk sample of 163 young adults with two relatives with schizophrenia was recruited. They and 36 controls were serially examined. Baseline measures were compared between those who did develop schizophrenia, a well control group, a well high-risk group and high-risk participants with partial or isolated psychotic symptoms. Results: Of those at high risk, 20 developed schizophrenia within 2½ years. More experienced isolated or partial psychotic symptoms. Those who developed schizophrenia differed from those who did not on social anxiety, withdrawal and other schizotypal features. The whole high-risk sample differed from the control group on developmental and neuropsychological variables. Conclusions: The genetic component of schizophrenia affects many more individuals than will develop the illness, and partial impairment can be found in them. Highly significant predictors of the development of schizophrenia are detectable years before onset.
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Familial vulnerability (along with 22q11.2 deletion syndrome) represents the most implementable target for selective screening intervention in health care.
“Overall, familial vulnerability (along with 22q11.2 deletion syndrome) represents the most implementable target for selective screening intervention in health care 133 : it is more established for psychosis 134 , but it is emerging for bipolar disorder.”
From Preventive psychiatry: a blueprint for improving the mental health of young people (2021) · cites this paper as [134]
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- Authors
- Johnstone, E. C., Ebmeier, K. P., Miller, P., Owens, D. G. C., & Lawrie, S. M.
- Affiliations
- Royal Edinburgh Hospital (GB)
- University of Edinburgh (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Johnstone, Eve C.
- Venue
- British Journal of Psychiatry
- Publisher
- Royal College of Psychiatrists
- Published
- 2005-01
- Volume
- 186
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 18-25
- ISSN
- 0007-1250 (ISSN-L)
- 1472-1465
- OpenAlex
- W2171607960
- Cited by
- 326
- References
- 29
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 2 · 2022: 10 · 2021: 8 · 2020: 14 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 12 · 2017: 25 · 2016: 11 · 2015: 22 · 2014: 12 · 2013: 31 · 2012: 26
- FWCI
- 13.84
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- The British Journal of Psychiatry (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Medical Research Council
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Schizophrenia research and treatment
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Psychopathy, Forensic Psychiatry, Sexual Offending
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Philosophy › Mental Health and Psychiatry
- Keywords
- schizophrenia, high-risk families, neurodevelopmental hypothesis, familial risk, social anxiety, withdrawal, schizotypy, genetic susceptibility, young adults
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Analysis of Variance, Brain, Child Behavior Disorders, Female, Humans, Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Male, Neuropsychological Tests, Prospective Studies, Psychiatric Status Rating Scales, Schizophrenia, Social Behavior, Case-Control Studies, Risk Assessment
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