Relationship between daily suicide counts and temperature in England and Wales
Open accessAbstract
BACKGROUND: Seasonal fluctuation in suicide has been observed in many populations. High temperature may contribute to this, but the effect of short-term fluctuations in temperature on suicide rates has not been studied. AIMS: To assess the relationship between daily temperature and daily suicide counts in England and Wales between 1 January 1993 and 31 December 2003 and to establish whether heatwaves are associated with increased mortality from suicide. METHOD: Time-series regression analysis was used to explore and quantify the relationship between daily suicide counts and daily temperature. The impact of two heatwaves on suicide was estimated. RESULTS: No spring or summer peak in suicide was found. Above 18 degrees C, each 1 degrees C increase in mean temperature was associated with a 3.8 and 5.0% rise in suicide and violent suicide respectively. Suicide increased by 46.9% during the 1995 heatwave, whereas no change was seen during the 2003 heat wave. CONCLUSIONS: There is increased risk of suicide during hot weather.
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Higher temperatures are linked to higher incidence of suicide.
“The research most directly related to our investigation links higher temperatures to higher incidence of suicide (Page et al., 2007; Ajdacic-Gross et al., 2007; Dixon et al., 2007; Kim et al., 2011; Tsai and Cho, 2012; Likhvar et al., 2011; Kim et al., 2015; Dixon and Kalkstein, 2018; Burke et al., 2018)”
From Temperature and mental health: Evidence from the spectrum of mental health outcomes (2019) · cites this paper as Page et al., 2007
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- Authors
- Page, L. A., Hajat, S., & Kovats, R. S.
- Affiliations
- King's College London (GB)
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Page, Lisa A.
- Venue
- British Journal of Psychiatry
- Publisher
- Royal College of Psychiatrists
- Published
- 2007-08
- Volume
- 191
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 106-112
- ISSN
- 0007-1250 (ISSN-L)
- 1472-1465
- OpenAlex
- W2101907855
- Cited by
- 245
- References
- 38
- Citations by year
- 2026: 8 · 2025: 15 · 2024: 10 · 2023: 25 · 2022: 18 · 2021: 17 · 2020: 15 · 2019: 12 · 2018: 22 · 2017: 9 · 2016: 10 · 2015: 12 · 2014: 15 · 2013: 9 · 2012: 10
- FWCI
- 6.06
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- The British Journal of Psychiatry (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Research Portal (King's College London) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Wellcome Trust
- European Commission
- National Institutes of Health
- National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (F32ES013690)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Suicide and Self-Harm Studies
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Homicide, Infanticide, and Child Abuse
- Keywords
- suicide, temperature, heat waves, violent suicide, seasonal variation, heat-related mortality, 2003 European heatwave
- MeSH terms
- England, Female, Hot Temperature, Humans, Male, Meteorological Concepts, Regression Analysis, Risk Factors, Suicide, Wales
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