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Ability of an arterial waveform analysis-derived hypotension prediction index to predict future hypotensive events in surgical patients
Open accessAbstract
BACKGROUND: Intraoperative hypotension is associated with worse perioperative outcomes for patients undergoing major noncardiac surgery. The Hypotension Prediction Index is a unitless number that is derived from an arterial pressure waveform trace, and as the number increases, the risk of hypotension occurring in the near future increases. We investigated the diagnostic ability of the Hypotension Prediction Index in predicting impending intraoperative hypotension in comparison to other commonly collected perioperative hemodynamic variables. METHODS: This is a 2-center retrospective analysis of patients undergoing major surgery. Data were downloaded and analyzed from the Edwards Lifesciences EV1000 platform. Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed for the Hypotension Prediction Index and other hemodynamic variables as well as event rates and time to event. RESULTS: Two hundred fifty-five patients undergoing major surgery were included in the analysis yielding 292,025 data points. The Hypotension Prediction Index predicted hypotension with a sensitivity and specificity of 85.8% (95% CI, 85.8%–85.9%) and 85.8% (95% CI, 85.8%–85.9%) 5 minutes before a hypotensive event (area under the curve, 0.926 [95% CI, 0.925–0.926]); 81.7% (95% CI, 81.6%–81.8%) and 81.7% (95% CI, 81.6%–81.8%) 10 minutes before a hypotensive event (area under the curve, 0.895 [95% CI, 0.894–0.895]); and 80.6% (95% CI, 80.5%–80.7%) and 80.6% (95% CI, 80.5%–80.7%) 15 minutes before a hypotensive event (area under the curve, 0.879 [95% CI, 0.879–0.880]). The Hypotension Prediction Index performed superior to all other measured hemodynamic variables including mean arterial pressure and change in mean arterial pressure over a 3-minute window. CONCLUSIONS: The Hypotension Prediction Index provides an accurate real time and continuous prediction of impending intraoperative hypotension before its occurrence and has superior predictive ability than the commonly measured perioperative hemodynamic variables.
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Jeong, H., Kim, D.-H., Kim, D. W., Baek, S., Lee, H., Kim, Y., & Ahn, H. J. (2024) · Journal of Clinical Monitoring and Computing · doi:10.1007/s10877-024-01206-6 · Cited by 8
“However, HPI has limited generalizability because it requires an invasive arterial line or a specialized finger cuff for non-invasive measurement (Acumen IQ cuff ™, Edwards Lifesciences, Irvine, CA, USA) [ 4, 5, 13 ].”
Liu, Y., Liu, B., Xiong, W., Wang, C., Yang, K., Ma, W., Lan, L., Wei, M., Jiang, N., & Feng, X. (2025) · Korean Journal of Anesthesiology · doi:10.4097/kja.25249 · Cited by 8
“A large number of studies have validated its sensitivity and specificity for predicting hypotension [39–41].”
Denn, S. M., Schneck, E., Jablawi, F., Bender, M., Schmidt, G., Habicher, M., Uhl, E., & Sander, M. (2022) · Journal of Medical Case Reports · doi:10.1186/s13256-022-03653-8 · Cited by 8
“outline a significant reduction of IOH by using an HPI-based GDT protocol [9].”
MethodBenson, B. E., Belle, A., Lee, S., Bassin, B. S., Medlin, R. P., Sjoding, M. W., & Ward, K. R. (2023) · BMC Anesthesiology · doi:10.1186/s12871-023-02283-x · Cited by 8
“10 Lifesciences, Irvine CA) uses features in the arterial waveform (collected from IAP monitoring) 182 to predict the occurrence of hypotension during surgery.(25,26) However, these approaches 183 require separate hardware.”
MethodCon: Routine Use of the Hypotension Prediction Index in Cardiac, Thoracic, and Vascular Surgery
Shehata, I. M., Alcodray, G., Essandoh, M. K., & Bhandary, S. P. (2020) · Journal of Cardiothoracic and Vascular Anesthesia · doi:10.1053/j.jvca.2020.09.128 · Cited by 8
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“It predicts hypotension 15 min in advance and is faster than cardiac output, stroke volume, MAP, pulse pressure, heart rate, stroke volume variation, and the shock index [8].”
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“7%, respectively, for predicting hypotension 10 min before the occurrence of events [35].”
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“17 This includes a predictive algorithm, the Hypotension Prediction Index (HPI), developed using AI and machine learning which identi fi es impending hypotension by analyzing arterial waveform changes over time.”
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“Treatment with vasopressors (e.g., ephedrine) is the other method of increasing MAP [ 23].”
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“In a previous study, approximately 87% of the subjects experienced one or more hypotensive events [4].”
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“[8] Various studies document the successful use of HPI in cardiac and non-cardiac surgeries.[9-12]”
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“37,38 42 These results may be due to a selection bias, and thus, additional investigation is needed.”
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“MAP threshold (MAPthr) [6]: This method evaluates predefined MAP thresholds (e.g., 55–85 mmHg) selected to cover the possible MAP values at which hypotension or non-hypotension events may occur 5 minutes later.”
A comparison between invasive and noninvasive measurement of the Hypotension Prediction Index
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“The Hypotension Prediction Index (HPI; Edwards Lifes-ciences, Irvine, CA, USA) uses features derived from the arterial pressure waveform to estimate the likelihood of IOH (MAP < 65 mmHg) before it occurs [12, 13].”
Mevik, K., Woldaregay, A. Z., Jonsson, E. L., Hernández, M. Á. T., & Temple‐Oberle, C. F. (2026) · JMIR AI · doi:10.2196/75064 · Cited by 6
“Regarding hypotension specifically, there have been several evaluations of HPI [77,78], including an RCT showing the efficacy of the HPI [70].”
Frassanito, L., Bidino, R. D., Vassalli, F., Michnacs, K., Giuri, P. P., Zanfini, B. A., Catarci, S., Filetici, N., Sonnino, C., Cicchetti, A., et al. (2023) · Journal of Personalized Medicine · doi:10.3390/jpm14010058 · Cited by 6
“The HPI has been validated on surgical patients with a high sensitivity and specificity in predicting hypotension 5, 10 and 15 min before the event [14,15].”
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“• HPI (Hatib et al. 2018; Davies et al. 2020): A commercial system with proprietary monitors and machine learning algorithms was developed and used HPI (Hypotension Prediction Index) to predict IOH events.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialMachine Learning of Physiologic Waveforms and Electronic Health Record Data
Kim, S., Kwon, S., Rudas, Á., Pal, R., Markey, M. K., Bovik, A. C., & Cannesson, M. P. (2023) · Critical Care Clinics · doi:10.1016/j.ccc.2023.03.003 · Cited by 5
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Forecasting intraoperative hypotension during hepatobiliary surgery
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“In that regard, significant research efforts are underway to apply ML in the complex interplay between surgery, patient demographics, anaesthetic factors, and their relationship with perioperative outcomes [15–17].”
InfluentialSzrama, J., Gradys, A., Nowak, Z., Lohani, A., Zwoliński, K., Bartkowiak, T., Woźniak, A., Koszel, T., & Kusza, K. (2024) · Contemporary Clinical Trials Communications · doi:10.1016/j.conctc.2024.101417 · Cited by 4
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Continuous Intraoperative Hemodynamic Monitoring Decreases In-Hospital Costs
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Self-citationApplication of perioperative hemodynamics today and potentials for tomorrow
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“It is based on arterial waveform features and has been claimed to predict intraoperative hypotension; the available evidence from recent clinical studies is summarized below (Davies et al., 2020; Maheshwari et al., 2020; Schneck et al., 2020; Wijnberge et al., 2020; Schenk et al., 2021).”
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“Time-weight average (TWA) of area under the MAP 65 mmHg is a combination of severity and duration of hypotension that calculated by sum of area under the MAP 65 mmHg/duration of monitoring 8 .”
InfluentialGiustiniano, E., Nisi, F., Ferrod, F., Lionetti, G., Viscido, C., Reda, A., Piccioni, F., Buono, G., & Cecconi, M. (2025) · Journal of Anesthesia Analgesia and Critical Care · doi:10.1186/s44158-024-00222-x · Cited by 3
Goal-directed therapy: what is the goal again?
Yerdon, A., Taylor, K., Woodfin, K., Richey, R., McMullan, S. P., & Chappell, D. (2025) · Perioperative Medicine · doi:10.1186/s13741-025-00533-9 · Cited by 3
“Recent innovations in advanced hemodynamic monitoring using artificial intelligence and machine learning make this possible (Davies et al. 2020; Edwards Lifesciences 2024; Frassanito et al. 2023; Hatib et al. 2018; Kouz et al. 2023b; Li et al. 2022; Saugel et al. 2019; Wijnberge et al. 2020).”
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“To date, research efforts aimed at developing and validating predictive models for perioperative hypotension have largely focused on the intraoperative period [21–25].”
Hypotension prediction index: comparison between invasive and non-invasive pressure inputs
Sarhadi, K., Hamman, J., Ávila, J., Jian, Z., & Fleming, N. (2025) · BMC Anesthesiology · doi:10.1186/s12871-025-03086-y · Cited by 2
“The Hypotension Prediction Index (HPI) is a newer parameter that provides advanced warning of critical hypotension [11, 12] facilitating earlier interventions, thus decreasing the incidence and magnitude of intra-operative hypotension [13].”
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Artificial intelligence and EEG during anesthesia: ideal match or fleeting bond?
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“[10,11] Davies et al reported sensitivities of 85.8%, 81.7%, and 80.6% at 5, 10, and 15-minute prediction windows, with corresponding high specificity.”
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Con: Hypotension Prediction Index—A New Tool to Predict Hypotension in Cardiac Surgery?
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Validation of Preload Assessment Technologies at Altitude in a Porcine Model of Hemorrhage
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Intraoperative Hypotonie beim Kind – Messung und Therapie
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“…our previous studies, MEP signals were obtained before and after critical surgical procedures or according to our specific needs as followings [ 4 , 6 ]: (1) Intraoperative signals were documented even when MEP remained unchanged, particularly when the surgical team suspected potential iatrogenic…”
Thiel, J., Žličar, M., Steinseifer, U., Kirn, B., & Neidlin, M. (2025) · Computers in Biology and Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.compbiomed.2025.111371 · Cited by 1
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“The arterial line dataset included 871 surgical patients from six previously reported studies (Hatib et al., 2018; Davies et al., 2020; Schneck et al., 2019; Shin et al., 2021; Wijnberge et al., 2020).”
Self-citationKünstliche Intelligenz in der Anästhesiologie – Schwerpunkt Hämodynamik
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Predictive value of Hypotension Prediction Index in liver transplantation: a prospective study
Yeh, B.-H., Yu-Chieh, L. U., Liu, F.-C., Tsai, H., Chih-Chung, L. I. N., Chun-Yu, C. H. E. N., Lee, W.-C., & Tsai, Y. (2026) · Minerva Anestesiologica · doi:10.23736/s0375-9393.25.19432-7 · Cited by 1
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“While initial studies suggested that HPI may be beneficial in preventing intraoperative hypotension [10, 11], its effectiveness across various clinical settings remains uncertain.”
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“Hypotension can lead to dizziness and faintness (Davies, et al 2020).”
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Pro: Hypotension Prediction Index—A New Tool to Predict Hypotension in Cardiac Surgery?
Parsons, H. M., & Zilahi, G. (2023) · Journal of Cardiothoracic and Vascular Anesthesia · doi:10.1053/j.jvca.2023.05.023 · Cited by 1
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Big Data und künstliche Intelligenz in der Anästhesie
Sander, J., Simon, P., & Hinske, L. C. (2023) · Die Anaesthesiologie · doi:10.1007/s00101-023-01362-5 · Cited by 1
Early Autocalibrated Arterial Waveform Analysis for the Management of Burn Shock—A Cohort Study
Kruse, M., Liesenborghs, K. E., Josuttis, D., Plettig, P., Gümbel, D., Lenz, I. K., Güthoff, C., Gebhardt, V., & Schmittner, M. D. (2024) · Journal of Intensive Care Medicine · doi:10.1177/08850666231224388 · Cited by 1
“16,17 The bene fi ts of aEHM devices are especially appreciated, when the establishment of a calibrated system is not practical, even though determining the cardiac pre-and afterload values of a patient are of critical importance.”
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“For example, Davies et al (2020) achieved a recall rate of 85.8% when predicting AHE 5 min in advance, while our model can achieve a recall rate of 94.24%.”
InfluentialAbdallah, A. C., Song, S. H., & Fleming, N. (2024) · BMC Anesthesiology · doi:10.1186/s12871-024-02574-x · Cited by 1
“The HPI software has been validated as a reliable predictive index in both cardiac [10] and non-cardiac [11] surgical procedures and has been shown to decrease the total duration of intraoperative hypotension [12].”
MethodArtificial Intelligence and Predictive Analytics
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Medicina predictiva, aprendizaje automático y anestesia
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Zielgerichtetes hämodynamisches Monitoring im OP: Wozu und womit?
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Artificial Intelligence in Prediction for Intraoperative Hypotension and Hypoxemia
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Progress of the Limitation and Inadequacy of Hypotension Prediction Index in Clinical Application
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“23 − 26 Thus, it is clear that maintaining BP levels above intraoperative hypotension thresholds is challenging.”
Big Data und künstliche Intelligenz in der Anästhesie
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“Other studies have similarly demonstrated the effectiveness of HPI in predicting hypotension in perioperative settings [10–12].”
Smart Healthcare: The Catalytic Role of AI in Transforming Diagnosis and Care
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“Logistic Regression was used to formulate an index (Hypotension Prediction Index) which measured the arterial blood flow and is used for measuring the intraoperative change in blood pressure and monitor it during the early stages of hypotension[10].”
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“%) for forecasting hypotension five minutes before onset, as reported in validation studies [9,10].”
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“The HPI is an algorithm-based machine learning model that analyzes arterial pressure waveforms to estimate the likelihood of an impending hypotensive event, defined as a mean arterial pressure (MAP) < 65 mmHg lasting for at least one minute [23–26].”
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Bao, X., Kumar, S. S., Shah, N. J., Penning, D. H., Weinstein, M. L., Malhotra, G., Rose, S. E., Drover, D. R., Pennington, M. W., Domino, K. B., et al. (2024) · Figshare · doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.26688710
Metadata
- Authors
- Davies, S. J., Vistisen, S. T., Jian, Z., Hatib, F., & Scheeren, T. W. L.
- Affiliations
- National Health Service (GB)
- Aarhus University (DK)
- Edwards Lifesciences (United States) (US)
- University Medical Center Groningen (NL)
- Corresponding author
- Davies, Simon James
- Venue
- Anesthesia & Analgesia
- Published
- 2020-02
- Volume
- 130
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 352-359
- ISSN
- 0003-2999 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2928352011
- Cited by
- 219
- References
- 23
- Citations by year
- 2026: 26 · 2025: 29 · 2024: 42 · 2023: 33 · 2022: 28 · 2021: 30 · 2020: 24
- FWCI
- 21.44
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Update notices
- correction (2023-09-01)
- Open access
- green
- hdl.handle.net
- Licence
- other-oa
- Locations
- Anesthesia & Analgesia (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Scopus (Elsevier) (submittedVersion)
- University of Groningen research database (University of Groningen / Centre for Information Technology) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- Edwards Lifesciences
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Surgery › Hemodynamic Monitoring and Therapy
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Surgery › Healthcare Technology and Patient Monitoring
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Cardiac, Anesthesia and Surgical Outcomes
- Keywords
- Hypotension Prediction Index, intraoperative hypotension, arterial waveform analysis, non-cardiac surgery, hemodynamic monitoring, hypotension prediction, mean arterial pressure, perioperative outcomes, sensitivity and specificity, time-to-event prediction
- MeSH terms
- Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Female, Forecasting, Humans, Hypotension, Intraoperative Complications, Male, Middle Aged, Predictive Value of Tests, Prospective Studies, Retrospective Studies, Monitoring, Intraoperative, Arterial Pressure
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