Cited by 359Meta-analysis and systematic reviewsStatistical Methods in Epidemiologyscientometrics and bibliometrics research

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Modeling Publication Selection Effects in Meta-Analysis

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Hedges, Larry V.·1992·Statistical Science

DOI 10.1214/ss/1177011364

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Abstract

Publication selection effects arise in meta-analysis when the effect magnitude estimates are observed in (available from) only a subset of the studies that were actually conducted and the probability that an estimate is observed is related to the size of that estimate. Such selection effects can lead to substantial bias in estimates of effect magnitude. Research on the selection process suggests that much of the selection occurs because researchers, reviewers and editors view the results of studies as more conclusive when they are more highly statistically significant. This suggests a model of the selection process that depends on effect magnitude via the p-value or significance level. A model of the selection process involving a step function relating the p-value to the probability of selection is introduced in the context of a random effects model for meta-analysis. The model permits estimation of a weight function representing selection along the mean and variance of effects. Some ideas for graphical procedures and a test for publication selection are also introduced. The method is then applied to a meta-analysis of test validity studies.

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Authors: Hedges, L. V.
Corresponding author: Hedges, Larry V.
ORCID: Hedges, Larry V.
Venue: Statistical Science
Publisher: Institute of Mathematical Statistics
Published: 1992-05-01
Volume: 7
Issue: 2
Pages: 246-255
ISSN: 0883-4237 (ISSN-L)
2168-8745
DOI: 10.1214/ss/1177011364
OpenAlex: W2087875612
Cited by: 359
References: 34
Citations by year: 2026: 11 · 2025: 15 · 2024: 16 · 2023: 10 · 2022: 16 · 2021: 11 · 2020: 39 · 2019: 17 · 2018: 14 · 2017: 9 · 2016: 11 · 2015: 13 · 2014: 8 · 2013: 5 · 2012: 11
FWCI: 10.09
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: bronze
doi.org
Locations: Statistical Science (publishedVersion)
Project Euclid (Cornell University) (submittedVersion)
Topics: Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Epidemiology
Social Sciences › Library and Information Sciences › scientometrics and bibliometrics research
Keywords: publication bias, meta-analysis, p-values, significance level, selection probability, random effects models, weight functions, test validity, graphical procedure

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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

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Modeling Publication Selection Effects in Meta-Analysis

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