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Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange
Abstract
Using a new data set consisting of six years of real-time exchange-rate quotations, macroeconomic expectations, and macroeconomic realizations, we characterize the conditional means of U.S. dollar spot exchange rates. In particular, we find that announcement surprises produce conditional mean jumps; hence high-frequency exchange-rate dynamics are linked to fundamentals. The details of the linkage are intriguing and include announcement timing and sign effects. The sign effect refers to the fact that the market reacts to news in an asymmetric fashion: bad news has greater impact than good news, which we relate to recent theoretical work on information processing and price discovery.
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Did Unexpectedly Strong Economic Growth Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003–2008?
Kilian, L., & Hicks, B. (2013) · Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1002/for.2243 · Cited by 371
Risk Everywhere: Modeling and Managing Volatility
Bollerslev, T., Hood, B., Huss, J., & Pedersen, L. H. (2018) · The Review of Financial Studies · doi:10.1093/rfs/hhy041 · Cited by 359
Surprise and uncertainty indexes: Real-time aggregation of real-activity macro-surprises
Scotti, C. (2016) · Journal of Monetary Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2016.06.002 · Cited by 339
Bollerslev, T., Li, S. Z., & Todorov, V. (2016) · Journal of Financial Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2016.02.001 · Cited by 180
Self-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Anderson, T. G., Bollerslev, T., Diebold, F. X., & Vega, C.
- Venue
- American Economic Review
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2003-02-01
- Volume
- 93
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 38-62
- ISSN
- 0002-8282 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3123647737
- Cited by
- 1,375
- References
- 1
- FWCI
- 86.67
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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