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Cited by 571American Environmental and Regional HistoryHistorical Economic and Social StudiesAgricultural economics and policies

The Enduring Impact of the American Dust Bowl: Short- and Long-Run Adjustments to Environmental Catastrophe

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Hornbeck, Richard·2012·American Economic Review
DOI 10.1257/aer.102.4.1477
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Abstract

The 1930s American Dust Bowl was an environmental catastrophe that greatly eroded sections of the Plains. The Dust Bowl is estimated to have immediately, substantially, and persistently reduced agricultural land values and revenues in more-eroded counties relative to less-eroded counties. During the Depression and through at least the 1950s, there was limited relative adjustment of farmland away from activities that became relatively less productive in more-eroded areas. Agricultural adjustments recovered less than 25 percent of the initial difference in agricultural costs for more-eroded counties. The economy adjusted predominantly through large relative population declines in more-eroded counties, both during the 1930s and through the 1950s. (JEL N32, N52, Q15, Q18, Q54)

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  • The stable groups assumption is satisfied for the Hornbeck (2012) regression because many counties have 0% of their land situated in medium or high erosion regions.

    “The stable groups assumption is satisfied: many counties have 0% of their land situated in medium or high erosion regions.”

    From Two-Way Fixed Effects Estimators with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects (2020) · cites this paper as Hornbeck (2012)

    Section IV (Empirical Framework; page unavailable) confirms that Hornbeck’s regression uses the fractions of each county in medium- and high-erosion regions, with less-eroded counties as the comparison group. Section III and the Results Appendix identify low-erosion areas, but the text does not establish that many counties have zero land in both medium- and high-erosion regions. Nor does it state that a ‘stable groups’ assumption is satisfied. (LLM, conf=0.78)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • In the Hornbeck (2012) regression Equation (1), the dependent variable is the change in log land value in county c between period t and 1930, and the explanatory variables are state × year fixed effects, the share of county c in high erosion regions, the share of county c in medium erosion regions, and controls.

    “In regression Equation (1), the dependent variable is, say, the change in log land value in county c between period t and 1930, and the explanatory variables are state × year fixed effects, the share of county c in high erosion regions, the share of county c in medium erosion regions, and some control variables.”

    From Two-Way Fixed Effects Estimators with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects (2020) · cites this paper as Hornbeck (2012)

  • The Hornbeck (2012) regression is a fuzzy design because the treatments of interest are whether a piece of land is in high or in medium erosion regions, which varies within (county,year) cells.

    “This a fuzzy design: the treatments of interest are whether a piece of land is in high or in medium erosion regions, which varies within (county,year) cells.”

    From Two-Way Fixed Effects Estimators with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects (2020) · cites this paper as Hornbeck (2012)

  • The Hornbeck (2012) regression is similar to Regression 1 with controls, except that it has two treatment variables.

    “This regression is similar to Regression 1 with controls, except that it has two treatment variables.”

    From Two-Way Fixed Effects Estimators with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects (2020) · cites this paper as Hornbeck (2012)

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Authors
Hornbeck, R.
Affiliations
Harvard University (US)
Corresponding author
Hornbeck, Richard
Venue
American Economic Review
Publisher
American Economic Association
Published
2012-06-01
Volume
102
Issue
4
Pages
1477-1507
ISSN
0002-8282 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1257/aer.102.4.1477
OpenAlex
W3122058131
Cited by
571
References
0
Citations by year
2026: 35 · 2025: 42 · 2024: 42 · 2023: 44 · 2022: 41 · 2021: 41 · 2020: 40 · 2019: 71 · 2018: 42 · 2017: 46 · 2016: 29 · 2015: 26 · 2014: 26 · 2013: 19 · 2012: 17
FWCI
86.97
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
cc-by
Locations
  • American Economic Review (publishedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • Digital Access to Scholarship at Harvard (DASH) (Harvard University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law › American Environmental and Regional History
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Historical Economic and Social Studies
  • Social Sciences › Safety Research › Agricultural economics and policies
Keywords
Dust Bowl, environmental catastrophe, agricultural land values, Great Depression, population decline, agricultural adjustment, Great Plains, land degradation

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