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Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts
Abstract
We propose a new approach to test the full-information rational expectations hypothesis which can identify whether rejections of the null arise from information rigidities. This approach quantifies the economic significance of departures from the null and the underlying degree of information rigidity. Applying this approach to US and international data of professional forecasters and other agents yields pervasive evidence consistent with the presence of information rigidities. These results therefore provide a set of stylized facts which can be used to calibrate imperfect information models. Finally, we document evidence of state-dependence in the expectations formation process. (JEL C53, D83, D84, E13, E31, E37)
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Cites
Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation with Spatially Dependent Panel Data
Driscoll, J. C., & Kraay, A. C. (1998) · Review of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.1162/003465398557825 · Cited by 6,865
Cited by
Optimal Sticky Prices under Rational Inattention
Maćkowiak, B., & Wiederholt, M. (2009) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.99.3.769 · Cited by 963
Diagnostic Expectations and Credit Cycles
BORDALO, P., GENNAIOLI, N., & SHLEIFER, A. (2018) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/jofi.12586 · Cited by 608
Overreaction in Macroeconomic Expectations
Bordalo, P., Gennaioli, N., Ma, Y., & Shleifer, A. (2020) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.20181219 · Cited by 608
Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal Evidence*
Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., & Ropele, T. (2020) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1093/qje/qjz029 · Cited by 401
Self-citationDiagnostic Expectations and Stock Returns
BORDALO, P., GENNAIOLI, N., PORTA, R. L., & SHLEIFER, A. (2019) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/jofi.12833 · Cited by 396
Metadata
- Authors
- Coibion, O., & Gorodnichenko, Y.
- Venue
- American Economic Review
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2015-08-01
- Volume
- 105
- Issue
- 8
- Pages
- 2644-2678
- ISSN
- 0002-8282 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3126121421
- Cited by
- 1,140
- References
- 1
- FWCI
- 61.10
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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