Education, HIV, and Early Fertility: Experimental Evidence from Kenya
Open accessAbstract
A seven-year randomized evaluation suggests education subsidies reduce adolescent girls' dropout, pregnancy, and marriage but not sexually transmitted infection (STI). The government's HIV curriculum, which stresses abstinence until marriage, does not reduce pregnancy or STI. Both programs combined reduce STI more, but cut dropout and pregnancy less, than education subsidies alone. These results are inconsistent with a model of schooling and sexual behavior in which both pregnancy and STI are determined by one factor (unprotected sex), but consistent with a two-factor model in which choices between committed and casual relationships also affect these outcomes. (JEL I12, I18, I21, J13, J16, O15)
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Meta-analyses generally report weak impacts of standalone HIV-education programs, irrespective of whether they are delivered via classroom-based courses or peer-provided courses.
“However, meta-analyses generally report weak impacts of such standalone programs, irrespective of whether they are delivered via classroom-based courses [Gallant and Maticka-Tyndale 2004, McCoy et al. 2010, Du‡o et al. 2015] or peer-provided courses [Cornish and Campbell 2009].”
From Women's Empowerment in Action: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial in Africa (2020) · cites this paper as Duflo et al. 2015
The Study Design section describes a teacher-delivered HIV curriculum, and the Long-Run Effects summary reports no effect of the stand-alone program on HSV2 infection or pregnancies. This supports the classroom-based example of weak impacts. But this paper reports one experiment, not a meta-analysis or evidence that impacts are generally weak; the peer-provided-courses claim is attached to a different citation. (LLM, conf=0.87)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Understanding differences in health behaviors by education
Cutler, D. M., & Lleras-Muney, A. (2010) · Journal of Health Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jhealeco.2009.10.003 · Cited by 1,920 · cited 1× · see citing works
“[11] Cutler, David, and Adriana Lleras-Muney (2010).”
Cutting the costs of attrition: Results from the Indonesia Family Life Survey
Thomas, D., Witoelar, F., Frankenberg, E., Sikoki, B., Strauss, J., Sumantri, C., & Suriastini, W. (2012) · Journal of Development Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2010.08.015 · Cited by 147 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 39
- Anderson Siwan Ray Debraj 2010 Missing Women: Age and Disease Review of Economic Studies 77 1262 1300
- Baird Sarah Garfein Richard S McIntosh Craig T Özler Berk 2012 Effect of a cash transfer programme for schooling on prevalence of HIV and herpes simplex type 2 in Malawi: a cluster randomised trial The Lancet 10.1016/S0140-6736(11)61709-1 22341825 · DOI · Paper page
- Baird Sarah McIntosh Craig Özler Berk 2011 Cash or condition? Evidence from a Randomized Cash Transfer Program Quarterly Journal of Economics 126 4 1709 1753
- Baird Sarah Hicks Joan Hamory Miguel Edward Kremer Michael 2011 Worms at Work: Long-run Impacts of Child Health Gains Unpublished PMC5094294 27818531
- Black Sandra Devereux Paul Silvanes Kjell 2008 Staying in the classroom and out of the maternity ward? The effect of compulsory schooling laws on teenage births Economic Journal 118 539 1025 1054
- Case Anne Ardington Cally 2006 The Impact of Parental Death on School Outcomes: Longitudinal Evidence from South Africa Demography 43 3 401 20 17051820
- Conti Gabriella Heckman James J Lopes Hedibert F Piatek Rémi 2012 Constructing Economically Justified Aggregates: An Application to the Early Origins of Health.” Forthcoming Journal of Econometrics
- Corey L Wald A Celum CL Quinn TC 2004 The effects of herpes simplex virus-2 on HIV-1 acquisition and transmission: a review of two overlapping epidemics J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 35 5 435 45 15021308
- Currie Janet Moretti Enrico 2003 Mother’s education and the inter-generational transmission of human capital: Evidence from college openings Quarterly Journal of Economics 118 4 1495 1532
- De Walque Damien 2007 How does the impact of an HIV/AIDS information campaign vary with educational attainment? Evidence from rural Uganda Journal of Development Economics 84 2 686 714
- Doyle Aoife M Ross David A Maganja Kaballa Baisley Kathy Masesa Clemens Andreasen Aura Plummer Mary L Angela IN Obasi Helen A Weiss Saidi Kapiga Watson-Jones Deborah Changalucha John Hayes Richard J for the MEMA kwa Vijana Trial Study Group 2010 Long-Term Biological and Behavioural Impact of an Adolescent Sexual Health Intervention in Tanzania: Follow-up Survey of the Community-Based MEMA kwa Vijana Trial PLoS Medicine 7 6 e1000287 20543994 PMC2882431
- Duflo Esther Kremer Michael Robinson Jonathan 2011 Nudging Farmers to Use Fertilizer: Theory and Experimental Evidence from Kenya American Economic Review 101 6 2350 2390
- Duflo Esther Dupas Pascaline Kremer Michael 2015 Education, HIV, and Early Fertility: Experimental Evidence from Kenya: Dataset PMC4624413 26523067
- Dupas Pascaline 2011 Do Teenagers Respond to HIV Information? Experimental Evidence from Kenya American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 3 1 1 36
- Ellis Bruce Bates John E Dodge Kenneth A Fergusson David M John Horwood L Pettit Gregory S Woodward Lianne 2009 Does Father Absence Place Daughters at Special Risk for Early Sexual Activity and Teenage Pregnancy? Child Development 74 3 801 821 12795391 PMC2764264
- Evans David Miguel Edward 2007 Orphans and Schooling in Africa: A Longitudinal Analysis Demography 44 1 35 57 17461335
- Fortunato L Archetti M 2009 Evolution of monogamous marriage by maximization of inclusive fitness Journal of Evolutionary Biology 23 149 156 20069721
- Fraser Alison M Brockert John E Ward RH 1995 Association of young maternal age with adverse reproductive outcomes New England Journal of Medicine 332 1113 1117 7700283
- Friedman Willa Miguel Edward Kremer Michael Thornton Rebecca 2011 Education as Liberation? NBER Working Paper #16939 PMC5630230 28990009
- Fortson Jane 2008 The Gradient in Sub-Saharan Africa: Socioeconomic Status and HIV/AIDS Demography 45 2 303 322 18613483 PMC2831364
- Grosskurth Heiner Mosha Frank Todd James Mwijarubi Ezra Klokke Arnoud Senkoro Kesheni Mayaud Philippe Changalucha John Nicoll Angus ka-Gina Gina Newell James Mugeye Kokugonza Mabey David Hayes Richard 1995 Impact of Improved Treatment of Sexually Transmitted Diseases of HIV Infection in Rural Tanzania: Randomized Controlled Trial The Lancet 346 530 536 7658778
- Harper Cynthia McLanahan Sara 2004 Father Absence and Youth Incarceration Journal of Research on Adolescence 14 3 369 97
- Jensen Robert 2012 Do Labor Market Opportunities Affect Young Women’s Work and Family Decisions? Experimental Evidence from In-dia Quarterly Journal of Economics 27 2 753 792
- Jensen Robert Lleras-Muney Adriana 2012 Does Staying in School (and not Working) prevent Teen Drinking and Smoking? Journal of Health Economics 31 4 644 657 22705390
- Kremer Michael 1996 Integrating Behavioral Choice into Epidemiological Models of the AIDS Epidemic Quarterly Journal of Economics 111 2 549 73
- Lam David Ardington Cally Leibbrandt Murray 2011 Schooling as a lottery: Racial differences in school advancement in urban South Africa Journal of Development Economics 95 2 121 136 21499515 PMC3076682
- Low BS 2007 Ecological and socio-cultural impacts on mating and marriage systems Oxford Handbook of Evolutionary Psychology Dunbar RIM Barrett L 449 462 Oxford University Press Oxford
- Marlowe F 2000 Paternal investment and the human mating system Behavioural Processes 51 1–3 45 61 11074311
- Mash Rachel Mash Bob deVilliers Pierre 2010 ‘Why don’t you just use a condom?’: Understanding the motivational tensions in the minds of South African women African Journal of Primary Health Care and FAmily Medicine 2 1 1 4
- McCoy Sandra I Kangwende Abigail Padian Nancy S 2010 Behavior change interventions to prevent HIV infection among women living in low and middle income countries: a systematic review AIDS and Behaviour 14 3 469 82 19949847
- McCrary Justin Royer Heather 2011 The Effect of Female Education on Fertility and Infant Health: Evidence From School Entry Policies Using Exact Date of Birth American Economics Review 101 1 158 195 PMC3073853 21490880
- Angela Obasi Frank Mosha Quigley Maria Sekirassa Zebedayo Gibbs Tom Munguti Katua Todd James Grosskurth Heiner Mayaud Philippe Changalucha John Brown David Mabey David Hayes Richard 1999 Antibody to herpes simplex virus type 2 as a marker of sexual risk behavior in rural Tanzania Journal of Infectious Diseases 79 1 16 24 9841817
- Osili Una Okonkwo Long Bridget T 2008 Does Female Schooling Reduce Fertility? Evidence from Nigeria Journal of Development Economics 87 1 57 75
- Oster Emily 2005 Sexually Transmitted Infections, Sexual Behavior and the HIV/AIDS Epidemic Quarterly Journal of Economics 120 2 467 515
- Reichard UH Boesch C 2003 Monogamy: Mating Strategies and Partnerships in Birds, Humans and Other Mammals Cambridge University Press
- Rosenzweig Mark Paul Schultz T 1989 Schooling, information and non-market productivity: contraceptive use and its effectiveness International Economic Review 30 457 477
- David Ross Changalucha John Obasi Angela Todd Jim Plummer Mary Cleophas-Mazige Bernadette Anemona Alessandra Everett Dean Weiss Helen Mabey David Grosskurth Heiner Hayes Richard 2007 Biological and behavioural impact of an adolescent sexual health intervention in Tanzania: a community-randomized trial AIDS 21 1943 1955 17721102
- Thomas Duncan Strauss John Henriques Maria-Helena 1991 How does mother’s education affect child height? The Journal of Human Resources 26 2 183 211
- Trussell James Pebley Anne R 1984 The Potential Impact of Changes in Fertility on Infant, Child and Maternal Mortality Studies in Family Planning 15 6 267 280 6515668
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Wang, H., Abajobir, A. A., Abate, K. H., Abbafati, C., Abbas, K. M., Abd-Allah, F., Abera, S. F., Abraha, H. N., Abu-Raddad, L. J., Abu-Rmeileh, N. M. E., et al. (2017) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(17)31833-0 · Cited by 801 · see citing works
Women's Empowerment in Action: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial in Africa
Bandiera, O., Buehren, N., Burgess, R., Goldstein, M., Gulesci, S., Rasul, I., & Sulaiman, M. (2020) · American Economic Journal: Applied Economics · doi:10.1257/app.20170416 · Cited by 311 · see citing works
Phillips, S. J., & Mbizvo, M. T. (2016) · International Journal of Gynecology & Obstetrics · doi:10.1016/j.ijgo.2015.10.005 · Cited by 53 · see citing works
- Authors
- Duflo, E., Dupas, P., & Kremer, M.
- Affiliations
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US)
- Department of Economics, Stanford University, 579 Serra Mall, Stanford, CA 94306 (e-mail: )
- Harvard University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Kremer, Michael
- Venue
- American Economic Review
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2015-09-01
- Volume
- 105
- Issue
- 9
- Pages
- 2757-2797
- ISSN
- 0002-8282 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC4624413
- OpenAlex
- W3124286696
- Cited by
- 369
- References
- 2
- Citations by year
- 2026: 22 · 2025: 23 · 2024: 35 · 2023: 28 · 2022: 36 · 2021: 38 · 2020: 27 · 2019: 37 · 2018: 36 · 2017: 31 · 2016: 20 · 2015: 17 · 2014: 9 · 2013: 6 · 2012: 2
- FWCI
- 63.99
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- American Economic Review (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation
- Nike Foundation
- National Institutes of Health
- Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (R01HD039922)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Health Professions › General Health Professions › Adolescent Sexual and Reproductive Health
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Reproductive Health and Contraception
- Social Sciences › Safety Research › Poverty, Education, and Child Welfare
- Keywords
- education subsidies, adolescent girls, school dropout, adolescent pregnancy, early marriage, HIV prevention, sexually transmitted infections, sexual behavior
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Clothing, Education, Educational Status, Extramarital Relations, Female, Fertility, Herpes Genitalis, Humans, Kenya, Male, Pregnancy, Pregnancy in Adolescence, Sexual Behavior, Sex Education, Sexual Abstinence, Sexual Partners, Sexually Transmitted Diseases, Program Evaluation, HIV Infections, Condoms, Marital Status, Unsafe Sex, Young Adult
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review