Cited by 427Healthcare Policy and ManagementDecision-Making and Behavioral EconomicsFinancial Literacy, Pension, Retirement Analysis

Health Insurance for “Humans”: Information Frictions, Plan Choice, and Consumer Welfare

Open access
Handel, Benjamin R., Kolstad, Jonathan T.·2015·American Economic Review

Abstract

Traditional models of insurance choice are predicated on fully informed and rational consumers protecting themselves from exposure to financial risk. In practice, choosing an insurance plan is a complicated decision often made without full information. In this paper we combine new administrative data on health plan choices and claims with unique survey data on consumer information to identify risk preferences, information frictions, and hassle costs. Our additional friction measures are important predictors of choices and meaningfully impact risk preference estimates. We study the implications of counterfactual insurance allocations to illustrate the importance of distinguishing between these micro-foundations for welfare analysis. (JEL D81, D8 3, G22, I13)

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

The paper combines administrative plan-choice and claims records with a linked employee survey to show that information frictions and perceived hassle costs explain a substantial part of health-plan choices that standard models would otherwise attribute to risk aversion. Accounting for these frictions lowers estimated risk aversion and roughly halves the welfare loss from forcing consumers into a high-deductible plan.

Key findings

  • In a baseline model using only administrative data, the average consumer appears highly risk averse: the implied gamble interpretation is a $366.74 loss tolerated for a 50/50 gamble of winning $1,000. Adding inertia raises this to $812.61, and adding survey-based frictions raises it further to $920.47 in the full model and $930.64 in the types model.
  • Consumers who incorrectly believe the PPO gives broader provider access are willing to pay about $2,267 more for the PPO than correctly informed consumers, even though the plans have identical networks. Across all measured frictions, the average consumer is willing to pay about $1,694 more for the PPO than a fully informed consumer with no perceived hassle costs.
  • In a counterfactual forcing everyone into the HDHP, the full model implies a mean welfare loss of $788.94, compared with $874.46 under the inertial baseline and $1,237.61 under the baseline without inertia; relative to risk neutrality, the full model implies a $62 loss versus $148 with inertia and $511 without.
  • The minimum price elasticity of medical spending needed to justify the forced HDHP switch is 0.178 in the full model, versus 0.280 in the baseline without inertia; upper-bound estimates are 0.258 and 0.407, respectively.

Methods

  • The setting is a large self-insured U.S. employer with roughly 55,000 employees and 160,000 covered lives, observed from 2009 to 2012, choosing between a PPO and a high-deductible health plan with a linked HSA.
  • A survey was sent to 4,500 randomly selected employees, with 1,661 respondents and a 38 percent response rate; responses were linked at the individual level to administrative claims, plan choices, demographics, and employment records.
  • The authors estimate structural choice models: a baseline with health risk and risk preferences, a baseline with inertia, a full model with 13 survey-derived friction and hassle-cost measures, and a types model aggregating information into a one-dimensional index. A separate cost model predicts ex ante out-of-pocket expenditure distributions, and models are estimated by simulated maximum likelihood.

Limitations

  • The paper states that survey-based identification relies on elicitations rather than exogenous administrative variation, and that answers may signal rather than directly measure frictions. It also notes possible selection into survey response, post-choice survey timing with forgetting or learning, and confirmation bias.
  • The authors state that results are specific to the large-employer context and two-plan menu studied, so the direction and magnitude of the risk-aversion bias may not generalize.
  • The text makes evident additional constraints: the analysis assumes friction measures are orthogonal to risk preferences and inertia, and the cost model assumes no private information and no moral hazard, though the authors argue these are unlikely to materially affect the main results.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1257/aer.20131126

Cites

177 of 177 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

4 of 24 cited sources checked · 3 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured

  • Findingown data
    § Introduction

    Consumers who are relatively less informed about the HDHP option are less likely to choose that plan.

    “Second, we investigate the correlations between answers to information-related survey questions and plan choices, conditional on realized costs, to illustrate that consumers who are relatively less informed about the HDHP option are less likely to choose that plan.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data
    § Introduction

    Relative to the baseline case of risk neutrality, the full model estimates with lower risk aversion imply an average welfare loss of $62 per person from increased risk exposure in moving the entire population to the HDHP.

    “Relative to the baseline case of risk neutrality, we find that the full model estimates, with lower risk aversion, imply an average welfare loss of $62 per person from increased risk exposure in moving the entire population to the HDHP.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data
    § Introduction

    Consumers who incorrectly believe that the PPO grants greater medical access are much more likely to choose the PPO relative to individuals who know that the plans grant exactly the same access.

    “We show that these consumers are much more likely to choose the PPO relative to individuals who know that the plans grant exactly the same access.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data
    § Introduction

    The primary model incorporating friction measures leads to lower estimates of risk aversion relative to both baseline models.

    “Our primary model-incorporating friction measuresleads to lower estimates of risk aversion relative to both baseline models: in the full model with all frictions the consumer would be indifferent if the gamble included a 50 percent loss of $913, while in the types model this value is $924.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data
    § Introduction

    The baseline model, based on administrative data alone, predicts substantial risk aversion, with a mean constant absolute risk aversion (CARA) coefficient of 1.60 • 10 -foot_2.

    “The baseline model, based on the administrative data alone, predicts substantial risk aversion, with a mean constant absolute risk aversion (CARA) coefficient of 1.60 • 10 -foot_2 .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 81
  • May combine two claims. 90
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 2
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § II. Data and Descriptive Analysis

    The administrative data are similar to those recently used in the literature studying insurance provision at large self-insured firms.

    “These administrative data are similar to those recently used in the literature studying insurance provision at large self-insured firms (see, e.g., Einav et al. 2013; Carlin and Town 2010; or Handel 2013).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Einav et al. 2013 source

      The Baseline sample section describes employee-level insurance choices, plan menus, and detailed medical claims from Alcoa, a large firm. This supports the comparison to administrative data used to study insurance provision at large firms, but the passages do not establish that Alcoa was self-insured. (LLM, conf=0.83)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites Carlin and Town 2010

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Handel 2013 source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § VI. Conclusion

    In the recent literature, people usually either model inertia explicitly or study active choice settings.

    “In the recent literature mentioned earlier, people usually either model inertia explicitly (e.g., Handel 2013) or study active choice settings (e.g., Einav et al. 2013).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Handel 2013 source
    • cites Einav et al. 2013 source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § VI. Conclusion

    Baicker, Mullainathan, and Schwartzstein (2015) studies medical care utilization with a welfare model that implies a gap between the choices consumers make and the choices that maximize their welfare if fully informed.

    “In concurrent work, Baicker, Mullainathan, and Schwartzstein (2015) studies medical care utilization with a welfare model that also implies a gap between the choices consumers make and the choices that maximize their welfare if fully informed.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Baicker, Mullainathan, and Schwartzstein (2015) source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § VI. Conclusion

    Beshears et al. (2008) discuss potential ways to distinguish between revealed and normative preferences.

    “Beshears et al. (2008) discuss potential ways to distinguish between revealed and normative preferences.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Beshears et al. (2008) source
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § Introduction

    The most influential frictions measured are a lack of information about available medical providers/treatments and perceived time and hassle costs for the HDHP plan.

    “The most influential frictions we measure are a lack of information about available medical providers/treatments and perceived time and hassle costs for the HDHP plan.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § Introduction

    Information frictions and hassle cost perceptions matter for consumer choices.

    “Overall, our descriptive analyses suggest that information frictions and hassle cost perceptions matter for choices”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given
    § Introduction

    The baseline model with inertia implies a more than double $148 relative loss, and without inertia implies a $511 relative loss.

    “The baseline model with (without) inertia implies a more than double $148 ($511) relative loss.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § Introduction

    Without the linked survey data, these frictions would primarily be proxied for by risk preference estimates as in the baseline model, but once included, the degree of estimated risk aversion is substantially reduced.

    “Without the linked survey data, these frictions would primarily be proxied for by risk preference estimates as in our baseline model, but, once we include them, the degree of estimated risk aversion is substantially reduced.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingreasoning
    § Introduction

    Under the baseline model, a price elasticity of demand for health care utilization of at least 0.280 would be necessary to justify the policy shift to the HDHP, while under the full model the elasticity would be 0.178.

    “Under the baseline model, with higher risk aversion, a price elasticity of demand for health care utilization of at least 0.280 would be necessary to justify the policy shift to the HDHP, while under the full model the elasticity would be 0.178.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given
    § A. Health Insurance Choices

    The PPO option had the largest share of employees over time, and had been the primary health insurance plan for many years prior to the introduction of the HDHP option in 2009.

    “The PPO option had the largest share of employees over time, and had been the primary health insurance plan for many years prior to the introduction of the HDHP option in 2009.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given
    § A. Health Insurance Choices

    All HSA funds can be invested in a pretax manner over time, providing similar benefits to those of a 401(k) investment.

    “Finally, in addition to the pretax benefits for medical expenditures, all HSA funds can be invested in a pretax manner over time, providing similar benefits to those of a 401(k) investment.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given
    § A. Health Insurance Choices

    The PPO plan charges no upfront premium while the HDHP provides an upfront subsidy equal to $1,500 for an individual, $3,000 for a couple, and $3,750 for a family.

    “The PPO plan charges no upfront premium while the HDHP provides an upfront subsidy equal to $1,500 for an individual, $3,000 for a couple, and $3,750 for a family.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § C. Frictions: Descriptive Evidence

    Forty-nine percent of incumbent HDHP enrollees, 41 percent of new HDHP enrollees, and 32 percent of PPO enrollees understand that one can access the same physicians in-network in both plans.

    “Forty-nine percent of incumbent HDHP enrollees, 41 percent of new HDHP enrollees, and 32 percent of PPO enrollees understand that one can access the same physicians in-network in both plans.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § C. Frictions: Descriptive Evidence

    There are clear patterns in the raw survey responses that are consistent with limited information, as well as time and hassle costs.

    “There are clear patterns in the raw survey responses that are consistent with limited information, as well as time and hassle costs.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § C. Frictions: Descriptive Evidence

    Those who expect to have lower hassle costs also have lower expenditures and, thus, ignoring utility from those time/hassle costs, should choose the HDHP in higher proportions.

    “The figure indicates that those who expect to have lower hassle costs also have lower expenditures and, thus, ignoring utility from those time/hassle costs, should choose the HDHP in higher proportions.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Findingnone given
    § A. Health Insurance Choices

    If employees want to use these funds for nonmedical expenditures at any point in their lives, they can do so on a post-tax basis.

    “If employees want to use these funds for nonmedical expenditures at any point in their lives, they can do so on a post-tax basis.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Findingnone given
    § A. Health Insurance Choices

    The HDHP has a substantial deductible equal to $1,500 for individuals, $3,000 for a couple (or parent and one child), and $3,750 for a family.

    “Alternatively, the HDHP has a substantial deductible equal to $1,500 for individuals, $3,000 for a couple (or parent and one child), and $3,750 for a family.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given
    § C. Frictions: Descriptive Evidence

    Only 11 percent of PPO enrollees report not being concerned that they may need to spend time managing health care costs compared to 39 percent of existing HDHP enrollees.

    “Only 11 percent of PPO enrollees report not being concerned that they may need to spend time managing health care costs compared to 39 percent of existing HDHP enrollees.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § C. Frictions: Descriptive Evidence

    Similar shares of both groups believe the reverse or are not sure.

    “Similar shares of both groups believe the reverse or are”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given
    § A. Health Insurance Choices

    For 2013, just past the end of the study period, the firm transitioned away from the PPO option and moved all employees previously enrolled there to the HDHP.

    “For 2013, just past the end of our study period, the firm transitioned away from the PPO option and moved all employees previously enrolled there to the HDHP.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § C. Frictions: Descriptive Evidence

    A similar pattern holds for questions about post-deductible co-insurance rate and out-of-pocket maximum in the HDHP, though fewer respondents have information on these characteristics relative to the deductible.

    “A similar pattern holds for the questions asking about the post-deductible co-insurance rate and the out-of-pocket maximum in the HDHP, though fewer respondents have information on these characteristics, relative to the deductible.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § A. Health Insurance Choices

    The HDHP subsidy is deposited into the HSA linked to that plan and can be used for medical expenditures on a pretax basis in both the short run and the long run.

    “The HDHP subsidy is deposited into the HSA linked to that plan and, thus, can be used for medical expenditures on a pretax basis in both the short run and the long run.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § C. Frictions: Descriptive Evidence

    29 percent of PPO enrollees answer that they would expect to spend more than 20 hours on HDHP plan administration and logistics, while only 6 percent and 8 percent do in the two HDHP cohorts.

    “29 percent of PPO enrollees answer that they would expect to spend more than 20 hours on HDHP plan administration and logistics, while only 6 percent and 8 percent do in the two HDHP cohorts.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingreasoning
    § A. Health Insurance Choices

    The linked HSA can provide additional value to employees, above and beyond the subsidy, as employees can contribute their own funds pretax to the HSA, up to a maximum of $3,150 for individuals and $6,250 for all others (gross of the subsidy).

    “The linked HSA can also provide additional value to employees, above and beyond the subsidy, as employees can contribute their own funds pretax to the HSA, up to a maximum of $3,150 for individuals and $6,250 for all others (gross of the subsidy).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given
    § A. Health Insurance Choices

    The PPO option has no in-network deductible, no in-network co-insurance, and no in-network out-of-pocket maximum.

    “On the financial dimension, the PPO option is the simpler and more comprehensive of the two options in terms of cost-sharing: it has no in-network deductible, no in-network co-insurance, and no in-network outof-pocket maximum.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given
    § A. Health Insurance Choices

    In the HDHP, after the deductible, the employee pays co-insurance of 10 percent for in-network providers and 30 percent for out-of-network providers until total spending exceeds the out-of-pocket maximum ($2,500 for individuals, $5,000 for a couple, and $6,250 for a family), at which point all expenditures are paid by the insurer.

    “In that plan, once an employee spends an amount in excess of the deductible, he must then pay co-insurance of 10 percent of allowed costs for in-network providers and 30 percent for out-of-network providers until his total spending exceeds the out-of-pocket maximum-$2,500 for individuals, $5,000 for a couple, and $6,250 for a family-at which point all expenditures are paid by the insurer.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given
    § A. Health Insurance Choices

    The PPO and HDHP have substantial differences in financial characteristics (e.g., premium, deductible, out-of-pocket maximum, HSA benefits) but, conditional on these financial elements, are identical on all other key features.

    “The PPO and HDHP have substantial differences in financial characteristics (e.g., premium, deductible, out-of-pocket maximum, HSA benefits) but, conditional on these financial elements, are identical on all other key features.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § C. Frictions: Descriptive Evidence

    More PPO enrollees answered incorrectly than correctly about the HDHP deductible, though the majority were not sure.

    “In fact, more PPO enrollees answered incorrectly than correctly, though the majority were”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingnone given
    § A. Health Insurance Choices

    Since the HDHP introduction, the firm has promoted the financial benefits of that plan to employees in order to incentivize employees to economize on potentially wasteful medical expenditures.

    “Since the HDHP introduction, the firm has promoted the financial benefits of that plan to employees in order to incentivize employees to economize on potentially wasteful medical expenditures (while returning some of those savings in the process).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § C. Frictions: Descriptive Evidence

    37.2 percent of consumers who expected to spend 1-5 hours on plan administration and logistics in the HDHP choose that plan, while only 5.1 percent of those who expect to spend > 20 hours on these activities choose that plan.

    “37.2 percent of consumers who expected to spend 1-5 hours on plan administration and logistics in the HDHP choose that plan, while only 5.1 percent of those who expect to spend > 20 hours on these activities choose that plan.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § C. Frictions: Descriptive Evidence

    Approximately 70 percent of HDHP enrollees know the premium difference between the two plans, linked to the HSA subsidy, while only 20 percent of PPO enrollees do.

    “Approximately 70 percent of HDHP enrollees know the premium difference between the two plans, linked to the HSA subsidy, while only 20 percent of PPO enrollees do.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § C. Frictions: Descriptive Evidence

    Almost all HDHP enrollees know that HSA funds can be rolled over from year to year, while approximately 75 percent of PPO enrollees do.

    “Almost all HDHP enrollees know that HSA funds can be rolled over from year to year, while approximately 75 percent of PPO enrollees do.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § IV. Results

    In the full model (primary specification, column 3 of Table 4), consumers who believe that the PPO plan has a larger network of medical providers value the HDHP by $2,326 less than someone who correctly knows that these plans grant the same access; this difference is significantly different from 0, with a 95 percent CI upper bound of -$1,286.

    “Consumers who believe that the PPO plan has a larger network of medical providers value the HDHP by $2,326 less than someone who correctly knows that these plans grants the same access (significantly different from 0, 95 percent CI upper bound of -$1,286).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § Cost Model

    The moral hazard impact is small relative to the overall difference in consumers' plan valuations and does not markedly impact the parameter estimates.

    “The results show the moral hazard impact is small relative to the overall difference in consumers' plan valuations and thus does not markedly impact our parameter estimates.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § IV. Results

    In the full model, the point estimates for the effects of underestimating and overestimating total medical expenditures are wrong signed but not statistically different from zero.

    “Though the point estimates are wrong signed they are not statistically different from zero.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § F. Identification

    New employees are slightly more likely to choose the HDHP, likely to be younger, likely to have lower income, and more likely to be single.

    “New employees are slightly more likely to choose the HDHP, likely to be younger, likely to have lower income, and more likely to be single.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § IV. Results

    In the full model, the mean gamble interpretation of X is 920.47, lying well above 864.68, the upper bound of the 95 percent confidence interval for the baseline model with inertia.

    “For risk preferences, in the full model we estimate a mean gamble interpretation of X = 920.47, lying well above 864.68, the upper bound of the 95 percent confidence interval for the baseline model with inertia.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § D. Types Model

    The distribution of information types is skewed toward uninformed, but with substantial heterogeneity and a non-negligible mass of highly informed consumers.

    “The figure reveals that the distribution of types is skewed toward uninformed, but with substantial heterogeneity and a non-negligible mass of highly informed consumers.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § IV. Results

    In the baseline model with inertia, employee age is negatively related to risk aversion and significant at the 95 percent level, while female and income are also negatively related but small in magnitude and statistically indistinguishable from zero.

    “As in the baseline model, employee age is negatively related to risk aversion, significant at the 95 percent level, while female and income are also negatively related but with effects small in magnitude and statistically indistinguishable from zero.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § IV. Results

    In the incremental models, the coefficients for total medical expenditure knowledge and plan financial characteristic knowledge frictions are negative and large in magnitude, implying a distaste for the HDHP as expected.

    “in the incremental models the coefficients for these frictions are negative and large in magnitude, implying a distaste for the HDHP as expected.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § IV. Results

    In the types model, the average effect of frictions on HDHP utility is -$3,056 with standard deviation 2,299, both somewhat larger than these figures for the full model.

    “The average effect of frictions on HDHP utility is -$3,056 with standard deviation 2,299 both somewhat larger that these figures for the full model”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § C. Frictions: Descriptive Evidence

    Across the three cohorts, 36-42 percent answer correctly, 29-36 percent overestimate their past expenditures, and 17-24 percent underestimate them.

    “Across the three cohorts, 36-42 percent answer the question correctly, 29-36 percent overestimate their past expenditures, and 17-24 percent underestimate them.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § IV. Results

    In the baseline model, the average consumer has a high degree of risk aversion, with a gamble interpretation X = $366.74, the amount the average consumer would be willing to lose to be indifferent about accepting a hypothetical gamble.

    “The results reveal that the average consumer has what seems like a high degree of risk aversion with X = $366.74being the amount this consumer would be willing to lose to be just indifferent about accepting the hypothetical gamble.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § IV. Results

    In the types model, the second most informed quartile has an average $1,158 disutility for the HDHP compared with the most informed consumers (top quartile), with values of $3,547 and $6,803 for the third and fourth most informed quartiles respectively.

    “The second most informed quartile has an average $1,158 disutility for the HDHP compared with the most informed consumers (top quartile), with values of $3,547 and $6,803 for the third and fourth most informed quartiles respectively”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § IV. Results

    In the structural model (column 4), estimated mean risk aversion yields a mean gamble interpretation of X = 952.89, lying well above the upper bound of the 95 percent confidence interval for the baseline model with inertia (and just above that upper bound for our primary full model estimates).

    “Estimated mean risk aversion in this model yields a mean gamble interpretation of X = 952.89, lying well above the upper bound of the 95 percent confidence interval for the baseline model with inertia (and just above that upper bound for our primary full model estimates).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § IV. Results

    In the baseline model with inertia, σγ is much lower than in the baseline model and is approximately 60 percent of the much lower average μγ.

    “Notably, σ γ is now much lower in the model with inertia relative to the baseline model as it is approximately 60 percent of the much lower average μ γ .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § D. Survey Data: Limitations

    New HDHP enrollees exhibit similar information levels to existing enrollees, indicating that people with a full year of plan experience do not know much more than those who just signed up.

    “new HDHP enrollees exhibit similar information levels to existing enrollees, indicating that people with a full year of plan experience do not know much more than those who just signed up.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingown data
    § IV. Results

    The 95 percent CIs for each informed quartile's disutility do not overlap with each other.

    “The 95 percent CIs for each quartile do not overlap with each other.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § IV. Results

    The upper bounds on the 95 percent CIs for the coefficients on time and hassle costs for strong dislike and 'accepts but is concerned' are -$79.74 and -$65.51, respectively.

    “These are relatively precise estimates: the upper bounds on the 95 percent CIs for these coefficients are -$79.74and -$65.51,respectively.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § Results

    The baseline model predicts a mean welfare loss of $1,237 from the forced switch, with a population standard deviation of $851.

    “The baseline model, where consumers are estimated to be more risk averse, predicts a mean welfare loss of $1,237 from the forced switch, with a population standard deviation of $851 .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: All information frictions are non-welfare-relevant conditional on enrollment in the HDHP.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The welfare-relevant utility (or utility conditional on enrollment) is that of a perfectly informed consumer that faces traditional uncertainty with respect to medical expenditures.
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingnone given
    § VI. Conclusion

    The sample is about 80 percent of the size of the mean number of employees present in each year from 2009-2012.

    “This sample is about 80 percent of the size of the mean number of employees present in each year from 2009-2012.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § Figure 6

    This elasticity is 0.197 for the inertial baseline model, 0.178 for the full model, and 0.164 under a simple risk neutral model.

    “This elasticity is 0.197 for the inertial baseline model, 0.178 for the full model, and 0.164 under a simple risk neutral model.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Reduced medical expenditures come from reductions in purely wasteful services (for the lower bound calculation).
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Rational consumers value foregone services at a rate between zero and the marginal HDHP price (for the upper bound calculation).
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The normal distribution for γ heterogeneity is truncated at 0.
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Findingnone given
    § VI. Conclusion

    Very few employees enroll in the HDHP in 2011 and switch to the PPO in 2012.

    “Very few employees enroll in the HDHP in 2011 and switch to the PPO in 2012.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § IV. Results

    Excluding the first-stage inertia estimates substantially increases the impact of both plan financial knowledge measures and total medical expenditure knowledge measures, while moderately impacting other estimates.

    “excluding the first-stage inertia estimates substantially increases the impact of both plan financial knowledge measures and total medical expenditure knowledge measures, while moderately impacting other estimates.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingnone given
    § Results

    The baseline model without inertia difference is $511.

    “(the baseline model without inertia difference is $511 ).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § Results

    The full model predicts $62 lower consumer surplus than the risk neutral case, while the baseline model with inertia predicts a $148 relative loss, almost two-and-a-half times as large as that from the full model.

    “The full model predicts $62 lower consumer surplus than the risk neutral case, while the baseline model with inertia predicts a $148 relative loss, almost two-and-a-half times as large as that from the full model”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given
    § VI. Conclusion

    Approximately 5 percent of employees in the relevant locations choose the HMO option, remaining steady over time.

    “Since approximately 5 percent of employees in the relevant locations choose this option (remaining steady over time) we exclude those who choose the HMO from our analysis and do not include the HMO option in our choice estimation.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § IV. Results

    Both types models have very high LR test statistics relative to the baseline model with inertia (as do our full model specifications).

    “Both types models have very high LR test statistics relative to the baseline model with inertia (as do our full model specifications).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § Results

    The model with structural frictions predicts mean consumer surplus loss of $741 with standard deviation $1,060.

    “while these values are $741 and $1,060 respectively for the model with structural frictions.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: All information frictions are non-welfare-relevant conditional on enrollment in the HDHP.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The welfare-relevant utility (or utility conditional on enrollment) is that of a perfectly informed consumer that faces traditional uncertainty with respect to medical expenditures.
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § VI. Conclusion

    Both information frictions and perceived hassle costs are important factors for consumer health insurance choices at the large employer studied.

    “we leveraged novel, individually linked, administrative, and survey data to show that both information frictions and perceived hassle costs are important factors for consumer health insurance choices at the large employer we study.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § Figure 6

    The upper bound on the minimum elasticity to justify the policy change, when foregone medical care is valued at the marginal price, is 0.407 in the baseline model, 0.286 in the inertial baseline model, 0.258 in the full model, and 0.237 for the risk neutral model.

    “The upper bound on the minimum elasticity to justify the policy change, when foregone medical care is valued at the marginal price, is 0.407 in the baseline model, 0.286 in the inertial baseline model, 0.258 in the full model, and 0.237 for the risk neutral model.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Reduced medical expenditures come from reductions in purely wasteful services (for the lower bound calculation).
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Rational consumers value foregone services at a rate between zero and the marginal HDHP price (for the upper bound calculation).
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § Introduction

    The additional choice factors studied can matter for choice analysis, welfare analysis, and policy analysis, but the exact implications will depend on the specific context.

    “We illustrate here that the additional choice factors we study can matter for choice analysis, welfare analysis, and policy analysis, but the exact implications will depend on the specific context.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisereasoning
    § Standard Model

    In the simple case, the insurance plan decision depends on the consumer's out-of-pocket payment under different scenarios and his degree of risk aversion; health insurance is a tool for financial risk protection.

    “In this simple case, the insurance plan decision depends on the consumer's out-of-pocket payment under different scenarios and his degree of risk aversion; health insurance is a tool for financial risk protection.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Premisereasoning
    § C. Information Frictions in Plan Choice

    Accordingly, individual choices reflect real preferences for trading off premiums in exchange for shifts in either the distribution of out-of-pocket spending or nonfinancial attributes across different plans.

    “Accordingly, individual choices reflect real preferences for trading off premiums in exchange for shifts in either the distribution of out-of-pocket spending or nonfinancial attributes across different plans.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductreasoning
    § Introduction

    The survey was conducted after consumers made their plan choices, potentially leading to confirmation bias or consumer forgetting and learning between open enrollment and survey administration.

    “Third, the survey was conducted after consumers made their plan choices, potentially leading to (i) confirmation bias or (ii) consumer forgetting and learning between open enrollment and the survey administration.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given
    § B. Nonfinancial Attributes in Plan Choice

    Plans differ by the network of physicians and hospitals available, the time and hassle costs associated with dealing with claims, and the tax benefits of linked financial accounts.

    “Plans differ by the network of physicians and hospitals available, the time and hassle costs associated with dealing with claims, and the tax benefits of linked financial accounts.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given
    § Standard Model

    The individual knows with certainty the density of expenditures, can place a probability weight on each illness, knows treatment costs, and understands the terms of different plan options.

    “However, he does know with certainty the density of expenditures-implicitly he is able to place a probability weight on each of the different illnesses that might befall him, know how much the appropriate treatment would cost, and understand the terms of the different plan options that result in different rates of cost sharing depending on expenditures/ illness states.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning
    § Introduction

    Incorporating information friction and hassle costs measures into typical insurance choice models could either increase or decrease the extent of estimated risk aversion.

    “From a theoretical perspective, incorporating information friction and hassle costs measures into typical insurance choice models could either increase or decrease the extent of estimated risk aversion.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given
    § Standard Model

    Individuals are willing to pay a higher premium for a plan if it reduces the mean or variance of expected out-of-pocket spending, and their willingness to pay for the latter is increasing in risk aversion.

    “Individuals are willing to pay a higher premium for a plan if it reduces the mean or variance of expected out-of-pocket spending and their willingness to pay for the latter is increasing in risk aversion.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Premisenone given
    § C. Information Frictions in Plan Choice

    The standard model assumes that when individuals make insurance choices they can access and process the information necessary to make correct decisions under uncertainty.

    “Importantly, this model assumes that when individuals make insurance choices they can access and process the information necessary to make correct decisions under uncertainty.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given
    § Standard Model

    The model elements can be observed in widely available administrative datasets (e.g., expected expenditures for an individual and the plan options).

    “Further, the model elements can be observed in widely available administrative datasets (e.g., expected expenditures for an individual and the plan options).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationnone given
    § Introduction

    All results presented are specific to the large employer context studied.

    “We also note that all results presented here are specific to the large employer context that we study.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisereasoning
    § B. Nonfinancial Attributes in Plan Choice

    Health insurance plans are differentiated products across a variety of dimensions beyond simple financial risk protection.

    “More generally, health insurance plans are differentiated products across a variety of dimensions beyond simple financial risk protection.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given
    § C. Information Frictions in Plan Choice

    This assumption is critical and underlies positive analysis of choice patterns throughout the literature on health insurance markets.

    “This assumption is critical and underlies positive analysis of choice patterns throughout the literature on health insurance markets.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given
    § Introduction

    The survey data are subject to potential concerns: consumer answers may reflect information about the specific plan dimension studied as well as other correlated factors, implying the answers are signals about information frictions rather than direct measurements.

    “First, consumer answers may reflect information about the specific plan dimension studied as well as other correlated factors, implying the answers given are signals about information frictions rather than direct measurements of them.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation
    § Standard Model

    The canonical model of preferences for health insurance is based on a risk averse consumer who would prefer to pay a fixed premium to avoid losses in the bad state of the world in which he becomes sick.

    “The canonical model of preferences for health insurance is based on a risk averse consumer who would prefer to pay a fixed premium to avoid losses in the bad state of the world in which he becomes sick (see, e.g., Arrow 1963 or Rothschild and Stiglitz 1976).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Arrow 1963

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Rothschild and Stiglitz 1976 source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Premisenone given
    § C. Information Frictions in Plan Choice

    In the standard model, the choice of insurance plan relies entirely on individuals' risk preferences, their expenditure projections, and their values for plan attributes.

    “In the model above, the choice of insurance plan relies entirely on individuals' risk preferences, their expenditure projections, and their values for plan attributes.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Premisenone given
    § Standard Model

    The individual making a choice has uncertainty over health care expenditures in different states of the world.

    “The individual making a choice has uncertainty over health care expenditures in different states of the world.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

    Premisereasoning
    § B. Nonfinancial Attributes in Plan Choice

    Modern health insurance is not a purely financial product.

    “To better reflect actual choices, we must account for the fact that modern health insurance is not a purely financial product.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisereasoning
    § B. Nonfinancial Attributes in Plan Choice

    In the extended model, consumers still value plans as tools for risk protection, but may also be willing to pay more for a plan with valuable nonfinancial attributes.

    “In this model, consumers still value plans as tools for risk protection, but, in addition, may be willing to pay more for a plan with valuable nonfinancial attributes.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given
    § B. Nonfinancial Attributes in Plan Choice

    With the rise of managed care and alternate benefit designs, the insurance one holds can determine the type of care available, the total price paid, and the hospitals and doctors one can access.

    “With the rise of managed care and alternate benefit designs, the insurance one holds can determine the type of care available, the total price paid, and the hospitals and doctors one can access.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given
    § B. Nonfinancial Attributes in Plan Choice

    The introductions of health savings accounts (HSA) and flexible spending accounts (FSA) have introduced additional plan attributes not directly related to consumer risk protection.

    “The introductions of health savings accounts (HSA) and flexible spending accounts (FSA) have introduced additional plan attributes not directly related to consumer risk protection.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given
    § B. Nonfinancial Attributes in Plan Choice

    Plans can have varying degrees of time and hassle costs linked to plan administration and logistics (e.g., dealing with medical bills).

    “Plans can also have varying degrees of time and hassle costs linked to plan administration and logistics (e.g., dealing with medical bills).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Study design and conductnone given
    § Introduction

    There may be selection into answering the survey on unobservable dimensions that are correlated with information about health plan choices.

    “Second, there may be selection into answering the survey on unobservable dimensions that are correlated with information about health plan choices.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning
    § Introduction

    The direction of the effect of incorporating information frictions and hassle costs on estimated risk aversion depends directly on the plans consumers can choose between and the relative information they have about each option.

    “The direction of this effect will depend directly on the plans consumers can choose between and the relative information they have about each option.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data
    § II. Data and Descriptive Analysis

    These data, combined with individually-linked survey data, allow us to move beyond this work and study multiple additional micro-foundations that could impact both plan enrollment and consumer welfare.

    “These data, combined with individually-linked survey data, allow us to move beyond this work and study multiple additional micro-foundations that could impact both plan enrollment and consumer welfare.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Premisereasoning
    § C. Information Frictions in Plan Choice

    Consumer choices no longer necessarily reflect the exact attributes of the plans (and preferences over those attributes) but, instead, beliefs about those attributes that could be incorrect.

    “Consumer choices no longer necessarily reflect the exact attributes of the plans (and preferences over those attributes) but, instead, beliefs about those attributes that could be incorrect.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisereasoning
    § C. Information Frictions in Plan Choice

    Without the assumption of full information, in the standard model where preferences are merely over financial risk, the consumer might not know or understand the financial attributes that differentiate each plan, implying an inability to accurately forecast spending in each option.

    “Without the assumption of full information, in the standard model where preferences are merely over financial risk the consumer might not know or understand the financial attributes that differentiate each plan, implying an inability to accurately forecast spending in each option.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Premisenone given
    § C. Information Frictions in Plan Choice

    Individuals may not have perfect information on the nonfinancial attributes of plan options (e.g., provider networks and hassle costs), particularly in the absence of having experience with a plan.

    “Similarly, individuals may not have perfect information on the nonfinancial attributes of plan options (e.g., provider networks and hassle costs), particularly in the absence of having experience with a plan.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § C. Information Frictions in Plan Choice

    Without the assumption of full information, assessing welfare using revealed preference becomes more challenging.

    “Without this assumption, assessing welfare using revealed preference becomes more challenging (see, e.g., Spinnewijn 2012 and Bernheim and Rangel 2009).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Spinnewijn 2012

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Bernheim and Rangel 2009 source
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § C. Information Frictions in Plan Choice

    While choices may be affected by information frictions, these frictions may not impact true, welfare-relevant, utility conditional on enrolling in a given plan option.

    “While choices may be affected by information frictions, these frictions may not impact true, welfare-relevant, utility conditional on enrolling in a given plan option (captured in equation (2)).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given
    § C. Information Frictions in Plan Choice

    There are many ways that choices could differ from the model described in equation (2).

    “There are many ways that choices could differ from the model described in equation (2).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Study design and conductreasoning
    § A. Health Insurance Choices

    This allows us to model relative consumer welfare from plan enrollment as a function of financial characteristics and subsequent risk exposure, rather than medical care differentiation.

    “This allows us to model relative consumer welfare from plan enrollment as a function of financial characteristics and subsequent risk exposure, rather than medical care differentiation.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § A. Health Insurance Choices

    This subsidy should be interpreted as the primary premium for the PPO relative to the HDHP.

    “This subsidy should be interpreted as the primary premium for the PPO relative to the HDHP.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductown data
    § C. Information Frictions in Plan Choice

    Our empirical setting provides exactly that, by combining administrative data on claims and choices of insurance with a detailed survey on consumer information about plan attributes and key risk characteristics.

    “Our empirical setting provides exactly that, by combining administrative data on claims and choices of insurance with a detailed survey on consumer information about plan attributes and key risk characteristics.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisenone given
    § C. Information Frictions in Plan Choice

    To compare the model in equation (2) to equation (3) requires both data on actual choices and plan attributes as well as measures of information and beliefs about plan attributes (or, alternatively, exogenous variation in the choice environment).

    “To compare the model in equation (2) to equation (3) requires both data on actual choices and plan attributes as well as measures of information and beliefs about plan attributes (or, alternatively, exogenous variation in the choice environment).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data
    § C. Frictions: Descriptive Evidence

    The answers to the rollover question suggest that there is real information content in the survey question answers, as most PPO enrollees can answer this simple question regarding the HDHP correctly.

    “The answers to this question suggest that there is real information content in the survey question answers, as most PPO enrollees can answer this simple question regarding the HDHP correctly (rather than, e.g.,”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisereasoning
    § C. Information Frictions in Plan Choice

    Addressing empirically whether information frictions exist and how important they are has been a challenge because the data requirements are substantial.

    “Addressing this empirically has been a challenge because the data requirements are substantial.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Premisenone given
    § C. Information Frictions in Plan Choice

    The feature that is perhaps most critical and potentially unlikely to hold in practice is that consumers are fully informed about health plan attributes.

    “The feature that is perhaps most critical and potentially unlikely to hold in practice is that consumers are fully informed about health plan attributes.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § F. Identification

    If the impact of frictions is correlated with expected medical spending or other moments of F, this could impact risk preference estimates in the full model.

    “if the impact of frictions is correlated with expected medical spending (or other moments of F ), then this could also impact risk preference estimates in the full model.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premiseown data
    § C. Full Model

    In 2011, approximately 85 percent of consumers enroll in the PPO plan, so the β coefficients can be thought of as generally indexing the non-default plan when inertia is explicitly excluded.

    “This approach works because, in 2011, approximately 85 percent of consumers enroll in the PPO plan so the β coefficients can also be thought of as generally indexing the non-default plan when inertia is explicitly excluded.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data
    § IV. Results

    The frictions with respect to total medical expenditure knowledge and plan financial characteristic knowledge imply lower utility for the HDHP plan on their own, but are overpowered by the other friction measures present in the full model.

    “This suggests that these frictions do imply lower utility for the HDHP plan on their own, but, are overpowered by the other friction measures present in the full model.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning
    § F. Identification

    If the assumption that risk preferences and frictions are independent is violated but maintained for estimation, risk aversion could be over- or under-estimated depending on the true correlation between risk preferences and frictions.

    “If the assumption that risk preferences and frictions are independent is violated, but we maintain that assumption for estimation, then risk aversion could be over or under estimated depending on the true correlation between risk preferences and frictions.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Risk preferences γ are independent of friction measures Z.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Friction measures are independent of inertia, conditional on demographics.
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data
    § Cost Model

    Private information and moral hazard effects are likely to be quite small relative to consumers' total relative valuations of the two plans.

    “Both effects are likely to be quite small relative to consumers' total relative valuations of the two plans.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data
    § IV. Results

    Unobserved heterogeneity in risk preferences becomes much smaller in the full models with information frictions, time and hassle costs, and inertia, suggesting that unobserved heterogeneity in γ may be capturing information measured directly in the survey data.

    “This unobserved heterogeneity becomes much smaller as we move to the full models with information frictions, time/hassle costs, and inertia, suggesting that unobserved heterogeneity in γ may be capturing information that we measure directly in our survey data.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data
    § C. Frictions: Descriptive Evidence

    While individuals are not well equipped to estimate their total expenditures in the past year, even to the level of expenditure buckets, people do not appear to recognize this lack of understanding.

    “Thus, while it appears individuals are not well equipped to estimate their total expenditures in the past year, even to the level of expenditure buckets, people do not appear to recognize this lack of understanding.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data
    § C. Frictions: Descriptive Evidence

    There is meaningful multi-dimensional heterogeneity across these frictions, and modeling them in a disaggregated manner could be fruitful.

    “This suggests that there is meaningful multi-dimensional heterogeneity across these frictions, and that modeling them in a disaggregated manner could be fruitful.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data
    § F. Identification

    New employees span the ranges of age, gender, and income seen in the full population with non-negligible mass, such that estimates of preferences based on observable heterogeneity can credibly be extrapolated from one group to the other.

    “Importantly, new employees span the ranges of age, gender, and income seen in the full population with non-negligible mass, such that estimates of preferences based on observable heterogeneity can credibly be extrapolated from one group to the other.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given
    § III. Empirical Framework

    While risk preferences impact both choices and welfare, a lack of information may be relevant for choices given a menu of options but may not impact actual welfare conditional on enrollment in an option.

    “While risk preferences impact both choices and welfare, a lack of information may be relevant for choices given a menu of options but may not impact actual welfare conditional on enrollment in an option.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § IV. Results

    Overall, these results imply a slightly larger impact of including our additional friction measures on risk preference estimates, and, in turn, the welfare loss from additional risk exposure studied in Section V.

    “Overall, these results imply a slightly larger impact of including our additional friction measures on risk preference estimates, and, in turn, the welfare loss from additional risk exposure studied in Section V.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Premisenone given
    § B. Baseline Model With Inertia

    In this setting, if consumers take no action at the time of plan choice in 2012, they will be enrolled in the plan they chose previously as a default option.

    “In our setting, if consumers take no action at the time of plan choice in 2012, they will be enrolled in the plan they chose previously as a default option.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data
    § D. Survey Data: Limitations

    If confirmation bias were present, it would have to manifest on different dimensions for different consumers, which the authors believe is less likely than the case where it is present on similar dimensions across consumers.

    “This suggests that if confirmation bias were present, it would have to manifest on different dimensions for different consumers, which we believe is less likely than the case where it is present on similar dimensions across consumers.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data
    § D. Survey Data: Limitations

    Consumers who answer the survey can be easily classified into informed or uninformed overall, and those classified as uninformed would had to have forgotten everything they know since open enrollment.

    “Thus, consumers who answer the survey can be easily classified into informed or uninformed overall, and those classified as uninformed would had to have forgotten everything they know since open enrollment.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data
    § III. Empirical Framework

    The analysis in the previous section provides evidence that information frictions are present for a variety of key choice dimensions and are correlated with consumers' health plan choices in a manner that implies more informed consumers are choosing plans that provide them more value.

    “The analysis in the previous section provides evidence that information frictions are present for a variety of key choice dimensions and are correlated with consumers' health plan choices in a manner that implies more informed consumers are choosing plans that provide them more value.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation
    § B. Baseline Model With Inertia

    Prior work illustrates that inertia, defined as choice persistence not resulting from stable preferences, can have a substantial impact on the choices made and consumer welfare.

    “Prior work (e.g., Handel 2013 and Marzilli Ericson 2014) illustrates the inertia, defined as choice persistence not resulting from stable preferences, can have a substantial impact on the choices made and consumer welfare.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Handel 2013 source
    • cites Marzilli Ericson 2014 source
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data
    § IV. Results

    Taken together, the results across the estimated models reveal our friction measures both enhance choice predictions and impact risk preference estimates.

    “Taken together, the results across the estimated models reveal our friction measures both enhance choice predictions and impact risk preference estimates.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given
    § VI. Conclusion

    The authors asked simple questions that consumers could easily understand and took a conservative stance in their main analysis on the exact structural meaning of their answers.

    “we asked simple questions that consumers could easily understand and took a conservative stance in our main analysis on the exact structural meaning of their answers.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data
    § Results

    The figure reveals substantial distributional implications of the forced switch and that incorporating additional friction measures drives a clear empirical wedge between demand and the welfare-relevant valuation of the HDHP relative to the PPO.

    “The figure reveals both that there are substantial distributional implications of the forced switch (not surprising given underlying heterogeneity in health risk) and that incorporating our additional friction measures drives a clear empirical wedge between demand and the welfare-relevant valuation of the HDHP relative to the PPO.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: All information frictions are non-welfare-relevant conditional on enrollment in the HDHP.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The welfare-relevant utility (or utility conditional on enrollment) is that of a perfectly informed consumer that faces traditional uncertainty with respect to medical expenditures.
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data
    § Results

    The similarity between the full model results with and without inertia suggests (i) our friction measures do an excellent job of proxying for inertia when it is excluded and (ii) that our welfare conclusions in the full model are robust to the inclusion of inertia estimates from the administrative data.

    “Additionally, the similarity between the full model results with and without inertia suggests that (i) our friction measures do an excellent job of proxying for inertia when it is excluded and (ii) that our welfare conclusions in the full model are robust to the inclusion of inertia estimates from the administrative data.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § VI. Conclusion

    Grubb and Osborne (2015) find similar behavior in cellular phone markets, where consumers also chose from menus of potentially complex nonlinear contracts.

    “Grubb and Osborne (2015) find similar behavior in cellular phone markets, where consumers also chose from menus of potentially complex nonlinear contracts.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Grubb and Osborne (2015) source
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data
    § V. Policy Analysis: Welfare Impact of Forced HDHP Switch

    A key distinction for the full model relative to the baseline models is that the inclusion of information friction measures causes a meaningful change to risk preference estimates without themselves impacting welfare conditional on enrollment.

    “A key distinction for the full model relative to the baseline models is that the inclusion of information friction measures causes a meaningful change to risk preference estimates without themselves impacting welfare conditional on enrollment.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: All information frictions are non-welfare-relevant conditional on enrollment in the HDHP.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The welfare-relevant utility (or utility conditional on enrollment) is that of a perfectly informed consumer that faces traditional uncertainty with respect to medical expenditures.
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § VI. Conclusion

    The ability to directly compare the authors' results to the structural health insurance literature is a key benefit of not eliciting rich measures of consumer beliefs.

    “In our analysis, the ability to directly compare our results to the structural health insurance literature is a key benefit of not taking this approach”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data
    § VI. Conclusion

    The sample omits people who select the sparsely chosen HMO option that the authors exclude from the analysis.

    “This sample also omits people who select the sparsely chosen HMO option that we exclude from the analysis.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductnone given
    § VI. Conclusion

    The counterfactual analysis studies a forced choice, or direct allocation of consumers to plans, rather than the case where consumers choose from a new menu of plans.

    “It is important to note that this counterfactual analysis studies a forced choice, or direct allocation of consumers to plans, rather than the case where consumers choose from a new menu of plans.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § V. Policy Analysis: Welfare Impact of Forced HDHP Switch

    The percentage of firms only offering HDHPs is projected to increase to 30 percent in 2015, up from 16 percent in 2014.

    “The percentage of firms only offering HDHPs is projected to increase to 30 percent in 2015, up from 16 percent in 2014.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Towers Watson (2014)

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given
    § VI. Conclusion

    The same logic extends naturally to other information frictions.

    “This same logic extends naturally to other information frictions.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Interpretationown data
    § Figure 6

    The analysis illustrates how an employer insurance decision or insurance regulation decision could be directly impacted when the underlying choice model includes detailed measures of information frictions and hassle costs.

    “our analysis illustrates how an employer insurance decision or insurance regulation decision could be directly impacted when the underlying choice model includes detailed measures of information frictions and hassle costs.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § IV. Results

    The change in risk preference estimates as a result of including frictions directly impacts welfare analysis and the investigation of counterfactual insurance allocation policies.

    “The change in risk preference estimates as a result of including frictions directly impacts welfare analysis and the investigation of counterfactual insurance allocation policies, which we now turn to.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § VI. Conclusion

    Barseghyan et al. (2013) use complementary approaches based on careful modeling, assumptions on the choice process, and administrative data alone.

    “That paper, as well as the Barseghyan et al. (2013) paper, use complementary approaches (relative to this paper) based on the combination of careful modeling, assumptions on the choice process, and administrative data alone.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Barseghyan et al. (2013) source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § V. Policy Analysis: Welfare Impact of Forced HDHP Switch

    From 2010 to 2014, enrollment in HDHPs increased from 15 percent to 33 percent.

    “This study shows, for example, that from 2010 to 2014 enrollment in HDHPs increased from 15 percent to 33 percent.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Towers Watson (2014)

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductnone given
    § VI. Conclusion

    The actual question asked to employees is carefully worded so as to define what the authors refer to as time and hassle costs.

    “The actual question asked to employees is presented in online Appendix A and is carefully worded so as to define what we refer to as time and hassle costs.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductreasoning
    § VI. Conclusion

    Survey data should be interpreted with caution because of issues like selection bias on unobservable characteristics, confirmation bias, and consumer experiential learning and forgetting.

    “those data should be interpreted with some caution because of issues like (i) selection bias on unobservable characteristics; (ii) confirmation bias; and (iii) consumer experiential learning and forgetting.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given
    § Results

    When the firm actually switched all consumers to the HDHP in 2013, the plan premium and financial characteristics remained constant.

    “when the firm actually switched all consumers to the HDHP in 2013, the plan premium and financial characteristics remained constant”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § Figure 6

    As the models incorporate information frictions and hassle costs and the mean consumer welfare loss from risk exposure due to the policy change decreases, this policy becomes more attractive and is justifiable at lower ξ.

    “Thus, as the models incorporate information frictions and hassle costs and the mean consumer welfare loss from risk exposure due to the policy change decreases, this policy becomes more attractive and is justifiable at lower ξ .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

    Interpretationreasoning
    § VI. Conclusion

    Integrating survey data with administrative data can produce valuable insights, especially when it is highly unlikely one can obtain rich enough administrative data to answer certain questions.

    “we argue that integrating survey data with administrative data can produce valuable insights, especially when it is highly unlikely one can obtain rich enough administrative data to answer certain questions, as in our setting.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § VI. Conclusion

    The authors' estimates do not have specific implications for questions like how many plans should be offered in a market, but do have implications for what level of risk exposure regulators allow insurers to offer.

    “This implies that, e.g., our estimates do not have specific implications for questions like how many plans should be offered in a market, but do have implications for, e.g., what level of risk exposure regulators allow insurers to offer.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data
    § IV. Results

    The results on risk preferences are robust to the underlying model of inertia; whether we include first-stage estimates or allow frictions to proxy for inertia, the implications for risk preferences, and our counterfactual welfare analysis, are similar.

    “This illustrates the robustness of our results on risk preferences to the underlying model of inertia; whether we include first-stage estimates or allow frictions to proxy for inertia, the implications for risk preferences, and our counterfactual welfare analysis, are similar.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductreasoning
    § VI. Conclusion

    Experiential learning is not an issue for the authors if this learning occurred prior to or during the open enrollment period in 2011 since they use the survey measures as proxies for information and expectations at the time of plan choice; it can only be an issue if it occurs in between open enrollment and the survey administration.

    “We note that experiential learning is not an issue for us if this learning occurred prior to or during the open enrollment period in 2011 since we use the survey measures as proxies for information and expectations at the time of plan choice: it can only be an issue if it occurs in between open enrollment and the survey administration.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § V. Policy Analysis: Welfare Impact of Forced HDHP Switch

    The Affordable Care Act (ACA) legislates the actuarial equivalence values (degrees of cost sharing) that private insurance companies can offer to consumers.

    “a leading example being the Affordable Care Act (ACA) which legislates the actuarial equivalence values (degrees of cost sharing) that private insurance companies can offer to consumers (Kaiser Family Foundation 2011).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Kaiser Family Foundation 2011

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given
    § VI. Conclusion

    In markets where consumers have many potential insurance choices, such as Medicare Part D or the state exchanges proposed in the ACA, the information frictions and relative plan hassle cost differences could be much larger than those documented in the authors' setting with only two primary plan options.

    “In markets where consumers have many potential insurance choices, such as Medicare Part D or the state exchanges proposed in the ACA, the information frictions and relative plan hassle cost differences could be much larger than those we document in our setting with only two primary plan options.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given
    § VI. Conclusion

    Time and hassle costs could have tangible welfare implications once enrolled.

    “On the other hand, time and hassle costs could have tangible welfare implications once enrolled.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning
    § VI. Conclusion

    Identification using survey data will almost always be more open to interpretation than identification using exogenous variation in administrative data.

    “identification using survey data will almost always be more open to interpretation than identification using exogenous variation in administrative data.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § VI. Conclusion

    Hastings et al. (2013) provide an example of linked survey and administrative data in the context of the economics of education.

    “See, e.g., Hastings et al. (2013) for an example of linked survey and administrative data in the context of the economics of education.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Hastings et al. (2013) source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationcitation
    § VI. Conclusion

    This is true broadly for other markets and other empirical questions in economics.

    “This is true broadly for other markets and other empirical questions in economics.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given
    § VI. Conclusion

    The case where time and hassle costs are not welfare-relevant could also represent a counterfactual scenario where relative plan hassle costs are reduced to zero.

    “The case where time and hassle costs are not welfare-relevant could also represent a counterfactual scenario where relative plan hassle costs are reduced to zero.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given
    § VI. Conclusion

    Time and hassle costs are an important friction to include in all models, but do not have a natural fit into a one dimensional type index with information frictions since they are a distinct type of friction.

    “Time and hassle costs are an important friction to include in all models, but do not have a natural fit into a one dimensional type index with information frictions since they are a distinct type of friction.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § VI. Conclusion

    Given generally low estimates in the literature of the price elasticity of medical expenditures, it is likely such ex post responses would not have a major impact on total ex post utility, implying that lack of knowledge on financial dimensions is not likely to markedly impact ex post behavior.

    “Given generally low estimates in the literature of the price elasticity of medical expenditures, it is likely such ex post responses would not have a major impact on total ex post utility, implying that lack of knowledge on financial dimensions is not likely to markedly impact ex post behavior.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § VI. Conclusion

    The subsidy in the authors' context may be interpreted differently by consumers than if it were a premium.

    “It is worth noting that the subsidy in our context may be interpreted differently by consumers than if it were a premium (see, e.g.,Kőszegi and Rabin 2006 or Kahneman and Tversky 1979) for work that illustrates this point).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Kőszegi and Rabin 2006 source
    • cites Kahneman and Tversky 1979 source
148 of 148
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    A key assumption maintained in all models that include friction measures is that those measures are orthogonal to classical risk preferences, conditional on detailed consumer demographic and health information.

    “A key assumption maintained in all models that include friction measures is that those measures are orthogonal to classical risk preferences, conditional on detailed consumer demographic and health information.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    In the counterfactual exercise, the authors assume that even though the frictions they measure impact willingness to pay, conditional on being enrolled in a plan they do not impact welfare.

    “we (i) keep all HDHP plan characteristics as observed in our setting and (ii) assume that, even though the frictions we measure impact willingness to pay, conditional on being enrolled in a plan they do not impact welfare.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The authors assume that individuals observe each type of plan attribute with two types of error.

    “We assume that individuals observe each type of plan attribute with two types of error.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Consumers have a similar amount of information about the simpler PPO option, and their answers to survey questions about the HDHP represent the relative difference in information about the HDHP and PPO.

    “An implicit assumption is that consumers have a similar amount of information about the simpler PPO option, and that, consequently, their answers to survey questions about the HDHP represent the relative difference in information about the HDHP and PPO.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Families' beliefs about their out-of-pocket expenditures conform to F_kj.

    “The baseline model assumes that families' beliefs about their out-of-pocket expenditures conform to F kj ( • ) .”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Families know the distributions of their future health expenditure risk F_kj and that this risk conforms to the output of the cost model.

    “First, it assumes that families know the distributions of their future health expenditure risk F kj and that this risk conforms to the output of the cost model described later in this section.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Consumers are fully informed about their own health risk.

    “This presumes that consumers (i) are fully informed about their own health risk, and (ii) fully understand the mapping between total health expenses and out-of-pocket expenses in each plan.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Consumers fully understand the mapping between total health expenses and out-of-pocket expenses in each plan.

    “This presumes that consumers (i) are fully informed about their own health risk, and (ii) fully understand the mapping between total health expenses and out-of-pocket expenses in each plan.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Plans are identical (up to mean zero idiosyncratic ε) on nonfinancial characteristics such as provider network and time/hassle costs.

    “Finally, the baseline model also assumes that plans are identical (up to mean zero idiosyncratic ϵ ) on nonfinancial characteristics such as provider network and time/ hassle costs.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Families have constant absolute risk aversion (CARA) preferences.

    “Given this setup, we follow the literature and assume that families have constant absolute risk aversion (CARA) preferences”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The idiosyncratic preference shock ε_kj is mean zero in estimation.

    “Here, ϵ kj is a family-plan specific idiosyncratic preference shock that is assumed to be mean zero in estimation.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Families choose the plan j that maximizes U_kj.

    “Subject to this model, families choose the plan j that maximizes U kj .”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    U_kj has the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility formulation.

    “We assume that U kj has the following von Neumann-Morgenstern (vNM) expected utility formulation:”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Inertia can be represented as an implied monetary cost of switching plans when a default option is present.

    “We incorporate inertia into the baseline model as an implied monetary cost of switching plans when a default option is present, similar in structural interpretation to a tangible switching cost.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The model with inertia is identical to the baseline model apart from the inclusion of η.

    “Apart from the inclusion of η the model with inertia is identical to the baseline model.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The value of HSA contributions is equivalent to the value of pretax dollars relative to post-tax dollars, and thus depends on the marginal tax rate.

    “The value of these contributions is equivalent to the value of pretax dollars relative to post-tax dollars, and thus depends on marginal tax rate τ k .”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Inertia is modeled as an incremental cost paid conditional on switching plans.

    “First, inertia is modeled as an incremental cost paid conditional on switching plans (following, e.g., Handel 2013; Shum 2004; or Dube et al. 2008).”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Risk preferences γ are independent of friction measures Z.

    “First, we assume that risk preferences γ are independent of friction measures Z .”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Frictions shift utility by the same amount for all potential realizations of health expenditures from F.

    “The full model also assumes that frictions shift utility by the same amount for all potential realizations of health expenditures from F .”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Friction measures are independent of inertia, conditional on demographics.

    “Identification of the full model directly follows the fact that our friction measures are observable variables combined with the assumptions that our friction measures are independent of (i) risk preferences and (ii) inertia, conditional on demographics.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The cost model assumes no private information and no moral hazard; total expenditures do not vary with plan j.

    “The cost model assumes that there is no private information and no moral hazard (total expenditures do not vary with j ).”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The model does not capture correlations between health risk and risk preferences.

    “In addition, the model does not capture correlations between health risk and risk preferences.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    For the baseline model, inertia, information frictions, and time and hassle costs are assumed away, and consumer beliefs about future expenditures correspond to the output of the cost model Fkj.

    “For the baseline model, inertia, information frictions, and time and hassle costs are assumed away and it is assumed that consumer beliefs about future expenditures correspond to the output of the cost model F kj .”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The distribution of risk preferences in the population is identical for new and existing employees, conditional on observable heterogeneity.

    “Together with the assumption that the distribution of risk preferences in the population is identical for both groups, conditional on observable heterogeneity, the distinction between new and existing employees identifies inertia separately from risk preferences.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The new and existing employee groups are identical on dimensions other than inertia and additional frictions.

    “Since this model assumes no additional frictions, it assumes that the two groups are identical on those dimensions.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The random coefficient γk for risk preferences is normally distributed with a mean linearly related to observable characteristics XkA.

    “In the primary implementation for each model we assume that the random coefficient γ k for risk preferences is normally distributed with a mean that is linearly related to observable characteristics X k A”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The family-plan specific error terms εkj are i.i.d. normal for each j with zero mean and variance σεj.

    “We assume that the family-plan specific error terms ϵ kj are i.i.d.normal for each j with zero mean and variance σ ϵ j .”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The inertia term η(XkB) is related linearly to demographics XkB.

    “We assume that the inertia term, η ( X k B ) is related linearly to demographics X k B”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    A parametric form is assumed for the population distribution of risk preferences, conditional on demographics.

    “we assume a parametric form for the population distribution of risk preferences (conditional on demographics), which leads to point identification of this distribution.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Correlations between frictions Z and inertia η are not explicitly modeled.

    “We do not explicitly model correlations between frictions Z and inertia η .”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    All information frictions are non-welfare-relevant conditional on enrollment in the HDHP.

    “For our friction measures, we assume that all information frictions are non-welfare-relevant conditional on enrollment.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The welfare-relevant utility (or utility conditional on enrollment) is that of a perfectly informed consumer that faces traditional uncertainty with respect to medical expenditures.

    “In essence, we assume that the welfare-relevant utility (or utility conditional on enrollment) is that of a perfectly informed consumer that faces traditional uncertainty with respect to medical expenditures.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The price elasticity of medical expenditures is homogeneous in the population.

    “To simplify our analysis, we assume a homogeneous elasticity in the population.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Consumers have a 0 price elasticity for medical utilization throughout the analysis.

    “Throughout our analysis we have assumed that consumers have a 0 price elasticity for medical utilization.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Reduced medical expenditures come from reductions in purely wasteful services (for the lower bound calculation).

    “If we directly compare ΔTC to the consumer welfare implications from the choice model, we are implicitly assuming that reduced medical expenditures come from reductions in purely wasteful services.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Rational consumers value foregone services at a rate between zero and the marginal HDHP price (for the upper bound calculation).

    “rational consumers should value the foregone services at a rate in between zero and the marginal HDHP price.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The normal distribution for γ heterogeneity is truncated at 0.

    “given that the normal distribution for γ heterogeneity is truncated at 0.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Consumers treat the subsidy as a relative premium, or relative difference in money between the plans, regardless of whether it represents a gain or loss from their baseline.

    “Throughout our analysis, we presume that consumers treat the subsidy as a relative premium, or relative difference in money between the plans, regardless of whether it represents a gain or loss from their baseline.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    A 35 percent marginal tax rate on income, near the average in the population.

    “This analysis assumes a 35 percent marginal tax rate on income, near the average in the population.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Risk aversion with respect to plan characteristics should not be a welfare relevant component of utility because it does not impact marginal utility in good and bad states of the world.

    “we believe this should not be a welfare relevant component of utility, since it does not actually impact marginal utility in good and bad states of the world.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    γ is truncated just above zero, at 10^-15, though this is generally nonbinding.

    “We assume that γ is truncated just above zero, at 10 -15 , though this is generally nonbinding.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    New employees have the same distribution of information frictions and hassle costs as existing employees.

    “this approach in the full model requires the assumption that new employees have the same distribution of information frictions and hassle costs as existing employees.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Idiosyncratic preferences ϵ are welfare-relevant.

    “We also follow convention and assume that idiosyncratic preferences ϵ are welfare-relevant, though these estimates are small in magnitude so this assumption doesn't impact the analysis in any substantial way.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Knowledge about HSA tax benefits is non-welfare relevant.

    “we also assume that knowledge about HSA tax benefits are also non-welfare relevant, though this is a case where it is plausible that this friction could also impact ex post behavior, by causing the consumer to place less money into the HSA.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Zero marginal value of medical care forgone.

    “These results assume zero marginal value of medical care forgone.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Employees make no incremental HSA contributions.

    “Under the assumption that employees make no incremental HSA contributions, 35 percent would have been better off.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    All employees contribute the maximum amount to their HSA.

    “If we assume that all employees contribute the maximum amount to their HSA, 73 percent would have been better off in that plan ex post.”
47 of 47

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • Average friction valuation differs between introduction and results

    Major

    The introduction reports a $1,694 average shift toward the PPO relative to a frictionless consumer. The results report $1,787 for the average full-model shift on the same comparison.

  • Table 5 does not reproduce Table 4's full-model error estimate

    Major

    Table 5 says it repeats the full model from Table 4, but lists its HDHP preference-shock standard deviation as 17.70. The corresponding full-model entry in Table 4 is 0.11.

  • Provider-network knowledge is assigned to the wrong HDHP cohorts

    Minor

    The prose assigns roughly 49% to incumbent enrollees and 41% to new enrollees. Table 3 assigns 41.28% to incumbents and 49.39% to new enrollees.

  • Survey response rate does not match the counts

    Minor

    The three cohorts yielded 1,661 responses out of 4,500 invitations, an overall response rate of 36.9%, not 38%.

    Reported 38 · recomputed 36.911111

  • HDHP premium changes sign between definitions

    Minor

    The HDHP premium is first defined as the negative of the subsidy and tax benefit, but its later substituted expression is positive. Those definitions imply opposite effects in the stated consumption equation, which subtracts the premium.

  • Introductory gamble values differ from the model results

    Minor

    The introduction gives loss amounts of $913 for the full model and $924 for the types model. The results section instead gives $920.47 and $930.64 for those models.

  • Baseline age effect is described in opposite directions

    Minor

    The baseline results say risk aversion increases with age. The following paragraph calls a negative age relationship in the inertia model consistent with the baseline model.

7 of 7

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 3

  1. Kenneth, 1963, American Economic Review, 53, 941
  2. 1998, Journal of Economic Literature, 36, 11
  3. Stiglitz Joseph E., 1976, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 90, 630

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Handel, B. R., & Kolstad, J. T.
Affiliations
University of California, Berkeley (US)
Venue
American Economic Review
Published
2015-08-01
Volume
105
Issue
8
Pages
2449-2500
ISSN
0002-8282 (ISSN-L)
OpenAlex
W2118208023
Cited by
427
References
51
Citations by year
2026: 28 · 2025: 24 · 2024: 35 · 2023: 55 · 2022: 40 · 2021: 48 · 2020: 34 · 2019: 41 · 2018: 40 · 2017: 36 · 2016: 16 · 2015: 16 · 2014: 4 · 2013: 7 · 2012: 3
FWCI
87.54
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • American Economic Review (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Funders
University of Pennsylvania
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Healthcare Policy and Management
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
  • Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Accounting › Financial Literacy, Pension, Retirement Analysis
Keywords
health insurance choice, information frictions, risk preferences, consumer welfare, hassle costs, administrative claims data
MeSH terms
Choice Behavior, Consumer Behavior, Deductibles and Coinsurance, Health Benefit Plans, Employee, Humans, Insurance, Health, Models, Theoretical, Preferred Provider Organizations, United States, Medical Savings Accounts

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-11.

Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-11.

Cited sources are checked by gpt-6-sol.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review