The DOI matches its Crossref record; 40 of the 40 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 3 of the 24 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
The Production Relocation and Price Effects of US Trade Policy: The Case of Washing Machines
Open accessAbstract
We estimate the price effect of US import restrictions on washers. The 2012 and 2016 antidumping duties against South Korea and China were accompanied by downward or minor price movements along with production relocation to other export platform countries. With the 2018 tariffs, on nearly all source countries, the price of washers increased nearly 12 percent. Interestingly, the price of dryers—not subject to tariffs—increased by an equivalent amount. Factoring in dryer prices and price increases by domestic brands, the 2018 tariffs on washers imply a tariff elasticity of consumer prices of above one. (JEL F13, F14, F23, L68, 019, P33)
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Claims the paper makes
3 of 24 cited sources checked · 2 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“These findings reflect a third-country effect from trade policy that has been discussed in various works by Bagwell and Staiger (see Bagwell, Bown and Staiger 2016, for a review).”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 2 A Simple Model of Production Relocation, Prices, and Tariffs
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Bagwell, Bown and Staiger 2016 source
Section 5.2, “PTAs and Third-Country Externalities” (page not provided), reviews evidence that trade policies can affect third countries. Its conclusion says the potential for such effects is real, though they are not a consistent feature of existing PTAs. The citation supports the reference to this effect as a topic of review; it does not establish the citing authors’ interpretation of their own findings. (LLM, conf=0.90)
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Supported
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We find that in response to the 2018 tariffs on nearly all source countries, the price of washers rose by nearly 12 percent; the price of dryersa complementary good not subject to tariffs-increased by an equivalent amount.”
- Also stated in: § 1 Introduction · plain
“Moreover, we show that prices of a complementary good-clothes dryers-also jumped at the same time by a similar magnitude, despite the fact that these products were not subject to any new tariffs during this period.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > Abstract
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Also stated in: § 1 Introduction · plain
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Although China accounted for a whopping 80 percent of washing machine imports into the United States prior to the application of tariffs, we find that there was very little effect on retail prices from these 2016 China-specific tariffs.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 1 Introduction
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This time, imports of washing machines produced in Thailand and Vietnam (the purple and yellow lines in Figure 2a) increased sharply, from essentially zero in 2015 to nearly 3.3 million units (combined) in 2017.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 3.1 Antidumping Investigations
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesThe paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Although China accounted for a whopping 80 percent of washing machine imports into the United States prior to the application of tariffs, we find that there was very little effect on retail prices from these 2016 China-specific tariffs.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 1 Introduction
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our estimates of the tariff elasticity of consumer prices for the country-specific antidumping duties on Chinese production, though positive, are quite small.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 1 Introduction
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesThe paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The 12 months after the China antidumping duties saw a decline of about the same magnitude -roughly 5 percent.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 1 Introduction
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our estimates indicate that the safeguard tariffs raised the median price of washing machines and clothes dryers by about 86 USD and 92 USD per unit, respectively.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 1 Introduction
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Contemporaneous with the drop in imports from Korea (and to a lesser extent, Mexico) was a substantial increase in imports from China (the red line in Figure 2a).”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 3.1 Antidumping Investigations
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Perhaps surprisingly, the 2012 antidumping duties against Korea led to relocation of production to China, actually resulting in lower washer prices in the United States.”
- Also stated in: § 1 Introduction · plain
“The result of these antidumping duties, first on Mexican/Korean production in 2012 and later on Chinese production in 2016, was a shift in production to other countries while keeping the overall magnitude of U.S. imports roughly the same.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > Abstract
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Also stated in: § 1 Introduction · plain
- Probably not a substantial claim. 43
- It may state two separate claims as one. 80
- The quote only partly states this claim. 3
The cited sources that could be checked couldn’t confirm or dispute this claim.
In the paper
“according to research on the effects of this merger in Ashenfelter, Hosken and Weinberg (2013), Whirlpool and Maytag together (pre-merger) accounted for 60 percent of total revenue for washing machines, and 65 percent for clothes dryers.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 3 Import Restrictions and Changes in Trade Flows
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites Ashenfelter, Hosken and Weinberg (2013) sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The available Web Appendix passages describe product characteristics used as controls for washers and dryers; they do not give pre-merger revenue shares. Searches for the claimed 60 percent and 65 percent figures and for combined market shares returned no passage addressing those figures. (LLM, conf=0.76)
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Could not verify
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“Using Belgian manufacturing data, Amiti, Itskhoki and Konings (2016) document that large firms respond to competitors cost changes induced by exchange rate changes.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > Figure A21: Total Number of Available Models by Brand
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Amiti, Itskhoki and Konings (2016) source
The Introduction says the study uses competitors’ cost shocks to identify firms’ price responses and finds similar results when it uses import-weighted exchange rates as instruments. Section 3.2 reports strong strategic complementarities in price setting among large firms; Section 4.3 shows their markup responses to exchange-rate shocks depend on the costs and prices of competitors. The claim is a fair paraphrase of that mechanism. (LLM, conf=0.90)
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Supported
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Imports subsequently fell sharply in February and March of 2018, rising again through September 2018 just before the quota limit of 1.2 million imported units was reached and subsequent tariffs rose to 50 percent.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 3.2 The Global Safeguards Investigation
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Conversely, the index jumped in the months following the section 201 safeguard tariffs and was up by about 9 percent by February 2019.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 1 Introduction
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“In February 2012, the USITC issued a ruling that recommended antidumping measures; in July of that year, the Commerce Department announced import duties ranging from 9.2 to 82.4 percent on several firms (Department of Commerce (2012)).”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 3.1 Antidumping Investigations
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Department of Commerce (2012)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Factoring in the effect of dryers and price increases by domestic brands, our estimates for the 2018 tariffs on washers imply a tariff elasticity of consumer prices of between 110 and 230 percent.”
- Also stated in: § 1 Introduction · hedged
“We find a much higher tariff elasticity of consumer prices for the global 2018 safeguard tariffs; once accounting for the effect on dryers prices, our estimates imply a pass-through to consumer prices of these safeguard tariffs of between 107 and 226 percent.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > Abstract
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Also stated in: § 1 Introduction · hedged
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“According to Commodity Status Reports published by the U.S. Customs Bureau, the quota limit on washers was reached on October 22, 2018.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 3.2 The Global Safeguards Investigation
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Exports of parts to China jump in 2013 and 2014 before falling back in 2016 and 2017 as exports of parts to Thailand and Vietnam rise.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 3.1 Antidumping Investigations
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The result of these antidumping duties, first on Mexican/Korean production in 2012 and later on Chinese production in 2016, was a shift in production to other countries while keeping the overall magnitude of U.S. imports roughly the same.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 1 Introduction
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“In February 2016, the USITC issued another ruling in favor of antidumping measures, and final antidumping duties announced by the Commerce Deparmtent ranged from 38.4 percent (LG) to 57.4 percent (Samsung) (Department of Commerce (2016)).”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 3.1 Antidumping Investigations
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Department of Commerce (2016)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the 12 months following the Korea/Mexico antidumping duties, the CPI for laundry equipment actually declined by about 5 percent and continued falling thereafter.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 1 Introduction
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For example, we find either flat or increasing unit values of imported washers from Korea in response to the antidumping duties in 2012, but domestic prices in the United States fell as foreign production relocated to China.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 1 Introduction
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In addition, overall Korean washing machine parts exports (not shown) rise nearly 60 percent between 2010 and 2016, a fact consistent with the reduced amount of parts used in Korea for washing machine production for export.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 3.1 Antidumping Investigations
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“which together account for more than 50 percent of the observations in the data.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.1 Data and Price Trends of Washers and Dryers
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Maytag raised washer prices by about 14 percent and dryer prices between 17 to 20 percent.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.2 Estimating the Price Effects of Washing Machine Import Restrictions
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The Gap Intelligence weekly retailer-product price data are nationally representative of U.S. washer and dryer prices.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A surprising feature of the results presented in section 4.2 is that dryers-excluded from any tariffs during this period-experienced price changes that were nearly identical to that of washers.This is true in the aggregate (Figure 1) as well as for each brand separately (Table 2).”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.4 The Response in the Price of Dryers
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Multiplying these estimates by the median pre-period price of washers (749 USD per unit) and dryers (809 USD per unit) yields the dollar increase in price attributable to these tariffs on washers and dryers was 86 USD per unit and 92 USD per unit, respectively.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.2 Estimating the Price Effects of Washing Machine Import Restrictions
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The Gap Intelligence weekly retailer-product price data are nationally representative of U.S. washer and dryer prices.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Finally, the estimates for the section 201 safeguard tariffs are considerably higher: 1.25 to 2.26 using the trade weighted average tariff increase, or 0.57 to 1.07 if we only use the maximum possible rate.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.5 Implications for the Tariff Elasticity of Consumer Prices
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“LG raised prices over four months by eight percent and over 8 months by about 13 percent for both washers and dryers.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.2 Estimating the Price Effects of Washing Machine Import Restrictions
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The Gap Intelligence weekly retailer-product price data are nationally representative of U.S. washer and dryer prices.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As shown in Appendix Figure A7, the Pearson rank correlation of sales for a brand's washer and dryers at a given retailer is quite high, 0.9 to 0.95, depending on the retailer, and typically lower, 0.3 to 0.9, for other appliances pairs.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.4 The Response in the Price of Dryers
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For example, it appears that refrigerator prices (Figure 5a) were growing differentially from ranges before and after July 2016.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.2 Estimating the Price Effects of Washing Machine Import Restrictions
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For ranges, the Chinese import share was about 10 percent, and hence the increase in the effective tariff rate was less than one percentage point.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.2 Estimating the Price Effects of Washing Machine Import Restrictions
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For example, from July 2014 to January 2018 (shortly before the introduction of the safeguard tariffs in February 2018), the Gap Intelligence data suggests a decline in washer prices of about 20 percent and a decline in the price of dryers of about 7 percent.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.1 Data and Price Trends of Washers and Dryers
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The Gap Intelligence weekly retailer-product price data are nationally representative of U.S. washer and dryer prices.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Appendix Table A9 replicates our baseline results from Table 1 but for all brands, brick-and-mortar retailers, and where each retailer receives a weight corresponding to the number of brick-and-mortar stores in the U.S. The results are robust, with the price effect of both the China antidumping and Safeguard tariffs increasing somewhat”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.3 Robustness
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The Gap Intelligence weekly retailer-product price data are nationally representative of U.S. washer and dryer prices.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Samsung increased prices by 15 to 17 percent for washers and about 10 percent for dryers.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.2 Estimating the Price Effects of Washing Machine Import Restrictions
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The Gap Intelligence weekly retailer-product price data are nationally representative of U.S. washer and dryer prices.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our suggestive estimate for the 2012 antidumping duties against Korea and Mexico indicates a decline in prices, and hence a negative elasticity, consistent with the theory shown in Figure 1c .”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.5 Implications for the Tariff Elasticity of Consumer Prices
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In columns 3 and 4-when utilizing model fixed effects as controls-the estimates for all four appliances increase and become statistically significant relative to the price levels of ranges.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.2 Estimating the Price Effects of Washing Machine Import Restrictions
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“What is evident in Table 3 is a wide range of this consumer elasticity of tariffs.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.5 Implications for the Tariff Elasticity of Consumer Prices
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“By contrast, and consistent with the preliminary evidence from Figure 5b, the estimated price effects of the Section 201 safeguard tariffs are much more striking.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.2 Estimating the Price Effects of Washing Machine Import Restrictions
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesThe quote only partly states this claim.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Depending on the time horizon, Whirlpool increased washer prices between 13 to 17 percent, with dryer prices increasing at least as much.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.2 Estimating the Price Effects of Washing Machine Import Restrictions
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The Gap Intelligence weekly retailer-product price data are nationally representative of U.S. washer and dryer prices.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Figure 3 reveals that unit values decreased following the Korea/Mexico antidumping duties as production relocated to China”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 3.4 The Relation to Import Prices
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While the imports identified under the Section 201 rate provision code display an applied tariff rate that matches those specified in the statute, the average effective tariff rate across all washer imports is significantly lower.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.5 Implications for the Tariff Elasticity of Consumer Prices
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“There is no clear distinction between domestic and foreign brands in these results, all within a range of 5 and 17 percent.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.2 Estimating the Price Effects of Washing Machine Import Restrictions
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The Gap Intelligence weekly retailer-product price data are nationally representative of U.S. washer and dryer prices.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“G.E. had lower price increases of around 7 percent for washers and about 10 percent for dryers.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.2 Estimating the Price Effects of Washing Machine Import Restrictions
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The Gap Intelligence weekly retailer-product price data are nationally representative of U.S. washer and dryer prices.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Prior to these tariffs, the Chinese import share for refrigerators was around 17 percent, leading to an increase in the trade-weighted tariff rate of less than two percentage points.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.2 Estimating the Price Effects of Washing Machine Import Restrictions
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Hence, the price correlation between these matched models is very high-over 0.95-while the correlation of price changes is 0.82.23”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.4 The Response in the Price of Dryers
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“for 86.3 percent of the matched observations, the washer has exactly the same price as the matching dryer.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > B.6 Matched Washers and Dryers
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“the steel content of washing machines is indeed quite close to the appliance used as our control of electric/gas ranges (average of 90 lbs vs 127.5 lbs)”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > B.3 Steel Content of Appliances
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Steel Recycling Institute and the Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“The other appliances-refrigerators and dishwashers-have steel content that is slightly higher and lower, respectively.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > B.3 Steel Content of Appliances
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Steel Recycling Institute and the Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Although we lack information on such linkages, the main assembly operations of Whirlpool produce in a foreign trade zone (see Appendix B.9), suggesting that imported components are an important piece of their U.S. operations.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.6 An Estimate of the Consumer Cost Per Domestic Job Created
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Safeguard tariffs 2018 Washers 0.1799*** 0.1464*** 0.1427*** 0.0913* 0.0537*** 0.0807*** 0.1420*** 0.1544*** 0.0885*** 0.0859***”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > B.9 Foreign Trade Zone Production
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Safeguard tariffs 2018 Washers 0.0868*** 0.0908*** 0.0843*** 0.1022***”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > C.2 Total Number of Available Models
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As indicated above, foreign producers advertised new jobs on the order of 1,600 following new production plans in the United States; Whirlpool, on the other hand, indicated they hired 200 additional workers as a result of the safeguard tariffs.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.6 An Estimate of the Consumer Cost Per Domestic Job Created
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“there is an especially tight connection between washers and dryers among the set of appliances for these retailers.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > B.7 Correlations Using Sales Rank
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Although prices increase briefly for two of the countries, by the time tariffs are actually assessed (in April/May, see Figure A4c) these prices fall back; averaging between 5 and 10 percent lower than before tariffs were applied.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > B.8 Changes to Export (to U.S.) Unit Values
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“These numbers are roughly 10 million washing machines and 7.7 million clothes dryers.29”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.6 An Estimate of the Consumer Cost Per Domestic Job Created
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Prior to the Section 301 tariffs, the Chinese share of total imports for refrigerators, ranges, and dishwashers was 18 percent, 10 percent, and 30 percent, respectively.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > B.4 Section 301 Tariffs on Other Household Appliances
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“According to data available on their website, calculated duties from February 2018 to January 2019 amounted to just under 82 million USD for washing machines, and about 355,000 USD for washing machine parts.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.6 An Estimate of the Consumer Cost Per Domestic Job Created
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Interestingly, the figure shows that duties didn't jump until roughly May of 2018, despite the fact that announcements indicated duties would be collected beginning in February.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > B.2 Application of Section 201 Tariffs
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Nearly all imports from Vietnam and Thailand were subject to these duties, whereas imports from Korea were only partially affected.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > Figures A4b and A4a
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Gas dryers are usually priced higher than the electric dryers.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > B.6 Matched Washers and Dryers
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Despite the increase in domestic production and employment, the costs of these 2018 tariffs are substantial: in a partial equilibrium setting, we estimate increased annual consumer costs of around 1.5 billion USD, or roughly 820,000 USD per job created.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 5 Conclusion
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The elasticity based on unit values implies full pass-through (increases) to import prices following the Korea/Mexico antidumping duties, whereas the evidence cited above shows that prices to consumers actually fell during this period.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.5.1 Comparison to Conventional Tariff Pass-Through Calculations
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As shown in Figure A9a, a large gap emerges between imports for consumption and general imports in 2014; Figure A9b demonstrates that roughly all of this discrepancy owes to a jump in the Cleveland Customs District.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > Additional information
Strength:boosted· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Washers Only | N/A | 0.23 | 1.25 | 0.57”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > Figure A21: Total Number of Available Models by Brand
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Washers | -0.0306 (0.0283) | -0.0345 (0.0360) | 0.1420** 0.1897*** (0.0444) (0.0530) | 0.0098 (0.0387) | -0.0110 (0.0491) | 0.0830* (0.0413) | 0.0573 (0.0498) | -0.0020 (0.0180) | 0.0235 (0.0240) |”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > Figure A21: Total Number of Available Models by Brand
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✗ Asserted: fails✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The authors may not put it forward as true. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Safeguard tariffs 2018 Washers 0.0695*** 0.0807*** 0.0760*** 0.0949*** (0.0114) (0.0137) (0.0096) (0.0095)”
- Also stated in: § Figure A21: Total Number of Available Models by Brand · plain
“Washers | 0.1092*** 0.1151*** 0.1104*** 0.1185*** (0.0138) (0.0181) (0.0111) (0.0118) |”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > C.2 Total Number of Available Models
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one. The quote only partly states this claim.
- Also stated in: § Figure A21: Total Number of Available Models by Brand · plain
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The correlation of average prices across all models within a brand/merchant is 0.87.The washer-dryer correlation of average price changes across all models within a brand/merchant is 0.74.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > Figure A21: Total Number of Available Models by Brand
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Refrigerators -0.0115 -0.0230* -0.0148** -0.0254*** (0.0079) (0.0108) (0.0049) (0.0053) Dishwashers -0.0023 -0.0073 0.0019 0.0087 (0.0088) (0.0123) (0.0060) (0.0074)”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > C.2 Total Number of Available Models
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the foreign monopolist switches the production location in response to the tariff and produces in C instead.”
- Also stated in: § 2 A Simple Model of Production Relocation, Prices, and Tariffs · hedged
“Quite interestingly, as a consequence, the prices U.S. consumers would pay for washing machines would fall in response to the import restrictions on K.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 2 A Simple Model of Production Relocation, Prices, and Tariffs
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one. The quote only partly states this claim.
- The authors state this as an assumption: There is a foreign monopolist that supplies washers to the United States.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The foreign supplier has constant marginal cost in each available production location.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The fixed cost of foreign production is higher than domestic production.
- Also stated in: § 2 A Simple Model of Production Relocation, Prices, and Tariffs · hedged
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These examples illustrate the importance of analyzing jointly the production and price effects from import restrictions.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 2 A Simple Model of Production Relocation, Prices, and Tariffs
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These tariff rates went into effect in February 2018 (for washing machines and their component parts) and are scheduled to expire after three years.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 3.2 The Global Safeguards Investigation
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“In 2006, the Whirlpool Corporation (”
- Also stated in: § 3 Import Restrictions and Changes in Trade Flows · plain
“This merger substantially increased the concentration of both washing machines and clothes dryers”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 3 Import Restrictions and Changes in Trade Flows
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Also stated in: § 3 Import Restrictions and Changes in Trade Flows · plain
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It is important to point out, that the example depicted in Figure 1c would not occur in a competitive market where new firms from country C could enter on their own.In that case, in the absence of tariffs, production would never occur in country K.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 2 A Simple Model of Production Relocation, Prices, and Tariffs
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In addition, export unit values (measured at the border) may reflect transfer pricing strategies to reduce the costs of tariffs for trade between related parties.They therefore may not accurately characterize the price change faced by consumers.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 1 Introduction
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Although our sample of microlevel prices does not overlap with the Korea/Mexico antidumping duties, we report evidence -a drop in the unit values from subsequent production in China, along with declines in the CPI index -pointing to a negative pass-through of tariffs and hence increased consumer surplus from these tariffs.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 1 Introduction
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Production relocation effects, price changes by domestic brands, and price changes of complementary goods all contribute to the differences between these measures.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > Abstract
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Imported washing machines occupied a small share-less than ten percent-of U.S. sales during this time.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 3 Import Restrictions and Changes in Trade Flows
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For products subject to antidumping duties, the dutiable value (for Section 201 tariffs) would be the value of the imported product prior to any antidumping duties being assessed.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 3.2 The Global Safeguards Investigation
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Our findings are also related to work by Ruhl (2014), who finds a large aggregate impact of U.S. antidumping policies.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 2 A Simple Model of Production Relocation, Prices, and Tariffs
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Ruhl (2014)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“To summarize, firms shifted production following each new trade policy-first from Mexico/Korea to China, then to Thailand/Vietnam, and finally to the U.S.-to avoid paying import tariffs.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 1 Introduction
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Canada was excluded, as the final announcement indicated that Canadian imports do not account for a substantial share of the total and do not contribute to the injury identified by the USITC.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 3.2 The Global Safeguards Investigation
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Transfer pricing motives would typically lead to lower pass-through estimates as firms attempt to lower the tariff / antidumping duties costs by lowering import prices.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 2 A Simple Model of Production Relocation, Prices, and Tariffs
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As long as the fixed costs of opening a plant in C are sufficiently large, or tariffs on imports from K are sufficiently small, this inequality will still hold resulting in full pass-through of the tariffs to the prices faced by U.S. consumers.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 2 A Simple Model of Production Relocation, Prices, and Tariffs
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: There is a foreign monopolist that supplies washers to the United States.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The foreign supplier has constant marginal cost in each available production location.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The fixed cost of foreign production is higher than domestic production.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Taken together, Figures 2a and 2b are a striking illustration of the changes in supply chains induced by U.S. tariffs.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 3.1 Antidumping Investigations
Strength:boosted· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The domestic retail prices reflect the impacts of tariffs on domestic competitors, production relocation, and complementary goods, while unit values from trade data would miss these channels.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 1 Introduction
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The Section 201 safeguard tariffs are imposed in addition to the standard MFN rates under Chapter 84 of the tariff schedule (which, in 2019, were 1 percent for washing machines).”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 3.2 The Global Safeguards Investigation
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, under sufficiently high import tariffs against country C, the producer obtains higher profits from producing in country V instead.This leads to an increase in the domestic price by p V -p C ≤ τ .”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 2 A Simple Model of Production Relocation, Prices, and Tariffs
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: There is a foreign monopolist that supplies washers to the United States.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The foreign supplier has constant marginal cost in each available production location.
- The authors state this as an assumption: In the Figure 1b example, the fixed cost to establish production in countries C and V is the same.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“On the other hand, as we show below in Figure 4, the CPI for laundry equipment declines considerably just after the production relocation from Korea/Mexico to China in mid-2012-consistent with the negative pass-through interpretation of the changes in unit values.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 3.4 The Relation to Import Prices
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As this introduces large measurement error in products' ages in dates near March 2013 and we find particularly strong price discounts of appliances in the first few months, we start our price analysis from mid-July 2014 onward.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.1 Data and Price Trends of Washers and Dryers
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We include refrigerators and dishwashers in the analysis as placebo effects-a check for the plausibility of our estimates.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.2 Estimating the Price Effects of Washing Machine Import Restrictions
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“third and more complicated issue arises from identifying the price impacts of complementary goods not subject to tariffs.Even when these products would be included in a pass-through regression, the impacts to import prices would likely not be reflected in the α 1 coefficient from equation (5).”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.5 Implications for the Tariff Elasticity of Consumer Prices
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As mentioned above, the quota of 1.2 million units subject to the lower additional tariff rate was reached in October 2018, and all relevant units thereafter paid a higher rate of 50 percent.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.5 Implications for the Tariff Elasticity of Consumer Prices
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For the Section 201 safeguard case, there were a number of product-level exclusions (within HS-10 codes), but we are unable to identify these excluded products in the retail price data (see Appendix B.2).”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.5 Implications for the Tariff Elasticity of Consumer Prices
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A second complication relates to the fact that the Section 201 safeguard measure was a tariff-rate quota, and therefore exhibits multiple tariff rates during the sample period we study.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.5 Implications for the Tariff Elasticity of Consumer Prices
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Indeed, as shown by Pierce (2011) protected domestic plants from antidumping duties tend to exhibit increased prices and markups, with physical productivity actually falling.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.2 Estimating the Price Effects of Washing Machine Import Restrictions
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Pierce (2011) source
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“An LG Electronic factory in Clarksville, Tennessee, is scheduled for a late 2018 or early 2019 opening, with an advertised creation of roughly 600 new jobs (LG Electronics (2017)).”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 3.3 Onshoring of U.S. Production
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites LG Electronics (2017)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedSingle caseTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The focus on the overall prices paid by consumers-made possible by our data-and adjustment for the share of domestic production facing no tariff changes (the M C,t-1 D C,t-1 term in the denominator) ensures that the measure reflects an overall elasticity for products consumed.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.5 Implications for the Tariff Elasticity of Consumer Prices
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Included in what was a third round of tariffs imposed on Chinese imports (from the Section 301 provision of U.S. trade law intended to penalize unfair trade practices) were refrigerators and electric/gas ranges; household dishwashers were not subject to new tariffs.”
- Also stated in: § 4.2 Estimating the Price Effects of Washing Machine Import Restrictions · plain
“These tariffs went into effect in September (roughly t = 28 in Figure 5b) at a rate of 10 percent.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.2 Estimating the Price Effects of Washing Machine Import Restrictions
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Also stated in: § 4.2 Estimating the Price Effects of Washing Machine Import Restrictions · plain
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The ultimate result of these measures, however, was a jump in the domestic prices of steel and aluminum-which together represent a significant input cost in U.S. production of washing machines.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.2 Estimating the Price Effects of Washing Machine Import Restrictions
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The Samsung factory in Newberry, South Carolina opened in January 2018 with plans to produce 1 million washing machines that year”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 3.3 Onshoring of U.S. Production
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Samsung (2017)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The control category is meant to subtract out other factors that could be influencing consumer prices for product category C during this time period, apart from tariffs.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.5 Implications for the Tariff Elasticity of Consumer Prices
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Using the rarely invoked”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.2 Estimating the Price Effects of Washing Machine Import Restrictions
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Finally, measurement from unit values faces the known problem of whether intra-firm transactions reflect prices that are relevant for ultimate consumers.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.5 Implications for the Tariff Elasticity of Consumer Prices
Strength:boosted· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These rates reset in February 2019, where the statutory rates decline to 18 percent (in quota) and 45 percent (out of quota).”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.5 Implications for the Tariff Elasticity of Consumer Prices
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“From the investigation documents, we learn that the respondents (LG and Samsung) requested these excluded articles be included within the scope of the investigation, whereas Whirlpool and G.E. urged against amending the scope (see USITC 2017, page 9).”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > B.2 Application of Section 201 Tariffs
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites USITC 2017
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Typically the differences in the data between these two definitions are small and reflect idiosyncratic timing in customs clearance as well as time spend in temporary storage in bonded warehouses.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > B.9 Foreign Trade Zone Production
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Among these excluded products were stacked washer-dryers, commercial washers, and the following presumably specialty washers:”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > B.2 Application of Section 201 Tariffs
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The additional rates applied to these goods was substantially smaller (only 10 percent) than other trade provisions put into place in 2018.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > B.4 Section 301 Tariffs on Other Household Appliances
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“According to research by Grant (2017), foreign trade zones account for roughly one-sixth of U.S. manufacturing value-added, and one-eighth of the value of U.S. imports.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > B.9 Foreign Trade Zone Production
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Grant (2017)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“If the finished product of an FTZ enters the United States for domestic consumption, then the firm must then pay duties on the value of the imported parts.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > B.9 Foreign Trade Zone Production
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“There are a number of other factors that could be added to this analysis; unfortunately, data limitations prevent a full treatment on all of these channels.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.6 An Estimate of the Consumer Cost Per Domestic Job Created
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“based on standard errors clustered by model.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > C.2 Total Number of Available Models
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In general, any imported good will be recorded twice: first as a”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > B.9 Foreign Trade Zone Production
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
In the paper
“Hufbauer, Lowry et al. (2012) calculate such a metric from the section 421 tariffs on Chinese tire imports, finding a cost of roughly 900,000 USD per job.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.6 An Estimate of the Consumer Cost Per Domestic Job Created
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Hufbauer, Lowry et al. (2012)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This number is of the same order of magnitude as other similar exercises.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.6 An Estimate of the Consumer Cost Per Domestic Job Created
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“All these calculations are made in partial equilibrium.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > 4.6 An Estimate of the Consumer Cost Per Domestic Job Created
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the FTZ firm is allowed to choose whether they pay the tariff rate of the finished product (washing machine) or the imported components (various washing machine parts).”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > B.9 Foreign Trade Zone Production
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Created at the request of a U.S. firm to the U.S. Department of Commerce, a manufacturing facility in an FTZ operates outside of the customs border of the United States.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > B.9 Foreign Trade Zone Production
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Among the set of products included under the third round of Section 301 tariffs against Chinese goods put into place in September 2018 were household refrigerators and gas/electric stoves and ranges.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > B.4 Section 301 Tariffs on Other Household Appliances
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“This description makes clear that these additional inclusions are better described as sub-assemblies of washers than indivisible parts.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > B.5 Tariffs on Washing Machine Parts
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites USITC 2017
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:boosted· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
In the paper
“We also follow the convention ofAmiti, Redding and Weinstein (2019) and drop observations with a ratio of unit values in t relative to t-12 of greater than 3 or less than 1/3.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > Figure A21: Total Number of Available Models by Brand
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Amiti, Redding and Weinstein (2019) source
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Standard errors are clustered by model.”
- Also stated in: § C.2 Total Number of Available Models · plain
“The dotted lines denote 95 percent confidence intervals for the coefficient estimates for washers and dryers, based on standard errors clustered by model.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > Figure A21: Total Number of Available Models by Brand
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Also stated in: § C.2 Total Number of Available Models · plain
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Hitsch, Hortacsu and Lin (2017) and DellaVigna and Gentzkow (2017) report evidence suggesting uniform pricing in U.S. retail chains across locations.”
§ NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE PRODUCTION RELOCATION AND PRICE EFFECTS OF U.S. TRADE POLICY: THE CASE OF WASHING MACHINES > Figure A21: Total Number of Available Models by Brand
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Hitsch, Hortacsu and Lin (2017)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites DellaVigna and Gentzkow (2017) source
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
The authors state this as an assumption.
There is a foreign monopolist that supplies washers to the United States.
“We assume that there is a foreign monopolist that supplies washers to the United States.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Consumer preferences for washers imply a constant elasticity of substitution demand function.
“We further assume that consumer preferences for washers lead to a constant elasticity of substitution demand function”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The foreign supplier has constant marginal cost in each available production location.
“and that the foreign supplier has constant marginal cost in each of the available production locations.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The model assumes away domestic producers of washing machines.
“Note that for simplicity we assume away any domestic producers of washing machines, since for the foreign production relocation the existence of domestic producers is not essential, and the graphical analysis below is easier to convey without them.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The importer is a perfectly competitive intermediary that sells washers to U.S. consumers, so no mark-up is added to the tariff.
“For simplicity we assume the importer is a perfectly competitive intermediary who in turn sells the washers to U.S. consumers, so there is no mark-up added to the tariff.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
In the Figure 1b example, the fixed cost to establish production in countries C and V is the same.
“If the fixed cost to establish production in these countries is the same, and there are no import restrictions, the foreign monopolist chooses the production location with the lower marginal cost-here, country C.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The fixed cost of foreign production is higher than domestic production.
“If the foreign monopolist is headquartered in country K, the assumption of higher fixed cost of foreign production is common in the literature on multinational firms (e.g., Brainard (1997), Helpman, Melitz and Yeaple (2004)).”
The paper relies on this without support.
The Gap Intelligence weekly retailer-product price data are nationally representative of U.S. washer and dryer prices.
“While some heterogeneity in prices across retail locations may exist, the provided weekly retailer-product specific price information is what Gap Intelligence considers the nationally representative price.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The Section 201 ruling contained no country-level exclusions covering China and Mexico.
“Given that the section 201 ruling did not provide for country-level exclusions for these cases”
The paper relies on this without support.
Foreign trade zone production is a quantitatively important part of U.S. washing machine imports.
“One important feature of U.S. imports of washing machines is the use of foreign trade zone (FTZ) production in the United States.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Any linear age effects of washer/dryer models are captured by the model-by-time term in the price regression.
“Note that any linear age effects of washer/dryer models will be captured by the λ C(i)t term.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“In the former case, and as some studies have already shown (see Flaaen et al., 2020), production might relocate to (third) countries unaffected by the bilateral trade war rather than being reshored to domestic economies.”
From De-Globalisation? Global Value Chains in the Post-COVID-19 Age (2020) · cites this paper as Flaaen et al., 2020
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Two annual consumer-cost totals differ
MinorThe main text gives annual consumer costs as $1.542 billion, while the accompanying footnote gives $1.552 billion. The $10 million difference is not a rounding difference.
“The result is an increase of 1.542 billion USD in consumer costs per year.”
“Together, equal to 1.552 billion USD.”
Citations
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The Aggregate Effects of Health Insurance: Evidence from the Introduction of Medicare
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“Hence, though the patterns evident in Figure 5 are informative, we must factor in the different trends (see, e.g., Finkelstein (2007)) to arrive at the true effect of tariff changes on prices.”
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 4
- Brainard S. Lael., 1997, American Economic Review, 87, 520
- Hitsch Günter, 2017, Chicago Booth Research Paper, 17
- Hufbauer Gary C, 2012, Peterson Institute for International Economics Policy Brief, 12
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Cited by
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Oermann, N. O., & Wolff, H.-J. (2022) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192848901.003.0003
Trade wars, economic warfare, and the law
Oermann, N. O., & Wolff, H.-J. (2022) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192848901.003.0005
Ghani, W., & Margam, A. (2022) · Risk Governance and Control Financial Markets & Institutions · doi:10.22495/rgcv12i3p5
“Amiti, Redding, and Weinstein (2019), Fajgelbaum, Goldberg, Kennedy, and Khandelwal (2020), Flaaen, Hortaçsu, and Tintelnot (2020), and Cavallo, Gopinath, Neiman, and Tang (2021) also investigated the trade war and found varying effects on the supply, demand, and prices of products and services in…”
BackgroundThe Chinese challenge and the disunited West
Oermann, N. O., & Wolff, H.-J. (2022) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192848901.003.0008
Oermann, N. O., & Wolff, H.-J. (2022) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192848901.003.0009
Metadata
- Authors
- Flaaen, A., Hortaçsu, A., & Tintelnot, F.
- Affiliations
- Federal Reserve (US)
- University of Chicago and NBER ()
- National Bureau of Economic Research (US)
- ORCID
- Flaaen, Aaron
- Venue
- American Economic Review
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2020-07-01
- Volume
- 110
- Issue
- 7
- Pages
- 2103-2127
- ISSN
- 0002-8282 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2936976074
- Semantic Scholar
- 7126a00c888f59bf3a469675e6820f663b8cf60e
- Cited by
- 287
- References
- 33
- Citations by year
- 2026: 50 · 2025: 60 · 2024: 52 · 2023: 37 · 2022: 46 · 2021: 26 · 2020: 8
- FWCI
- 47.02
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.nber.org
- Locations
- American Economic Review (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Global trade and economics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Merger and Competition Analysis
- Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Marketing › Consumer Market Behavior and Pricing
- Keywords
- United States trade policy, import tariffs, antidumping duties, washing machines, industrial relocation, price effects, South Korea, China, drying equipment, tariff elasticity, export platforms
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