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Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations
Open accessAbstract
We show that the joint behavior of stock prices and TFP favors a view of business cycles driven largely by a shock that does not affect productivity in the short run – and therefore does not look like a standard technology shock – but affects productivity with substantial delay – and therefore does not look like a monetary shock. One structural interpretation for this shock is that it represents news about future technological opportunities which is first captured in stock prices. This shock causes a boom in consumption, investment, and hours worked that precedes productivity growth by a few years, and explains about 50 percent of business cycle fluctuations.
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Cited by
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Metadata
- Authors
- Beaudry, P., & Portier, F.
- Venue
- American Economic Review
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2006-09-01
- Volume
- 96
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 1293-1307
- ISSN
- 0002-8282 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3122454653
- Cited by
- 845
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 55.92
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
