Secular Stagnation: A Supply-Side View
Abstract
Secular stagnation on the supply side takes the form of a slow 1.6 percent annual growth rate of US potential real GDP, roughly half the 3.1 percent annual growth rate of actual real GDP realized from 1972 to 2004. This slowdown stems from a sharp decline in the growth rate of aggregate hours of work and of output per hour. This paper attributes the productivity growth decline to diminishing returns in the digital revolution that had its peak effect business hardware, software, and best practices in the late 1990s but has resulted in little change in those methods over the past decade.
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Marx-inspired analyses of technological unemployment are supported by historians who contradict optimistic readings like Mokyr's and emphasise the slowing down of innovation under financial capitalism, where profit maximisation occurs through speculation rather than changes in industrial paradigms.
“These Marx-inspired analyses of technological unemployment are supported by the analyses of historians who directly contradict optimistic readings like Mokyr's, and emphasise the slowing down of innovation under financial capitalism, where profit maximisation occurs through speculation rather than changes in industrial paradigms (Gordon 2014(Gordon , 2015)).”
From Artificial intelligence and work: a critical review of recent research from the social sciences (2024) · cites this paper as Gordon 2015
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Artificial intelligence and work: a critical review of recent research from the social sciences
Deranty, J.-P., & Corbin, T. (2024) · AI & SOCIETY · doi:10.1007/s00146-022-01496-x · Cited by 118 · see citing works
“…are supported by the analyses of historians who directly contradict optimistic readings like Mokyr’s, and emphasise the slowing down of innovation under financial capitalism, where profit maximisation occurs through speculation rather than changes in industrial paradigms (Gordon 2014, 2015).”
- Authors
- Gordon, R. J.
- Affiliations
- Northwestern University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Gordon, Robert J.
- ORCID
- Gordon, Robert J.
- Venue
- American Economic Review
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2015-05-01
- Volume
- 105
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 54-59
- ISSN
- 0002-8282 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2193001521
- Cited by
- 374
- References
- 11
- Citations by year
- 2026: 13 · 2025: 26 · 2024: 25 · 2023: 67 · 2022: 37 · 2021: 38 · 2020: 35 · 2019: 39 · 2018: 42 · 2017: 32 · 2016: 17 · 2015: 2 · 2012: 1
- FWCI
- 74.52
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- American Economic Review (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Productivity
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economic Theory and Policy
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
- Keywords
- secular stagnation, productivity slowdown, output per hour, diminishing returns, digital revolution, best practices, supply-side economics
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