Do Output Contractions Trigger Democratic Change?
Open accessAbstract
Does faster economic growth increase pressure for democratic change, or reduce it? Using data for 154 countries for the period 1963–2007, we examine the short-run relationship between economic growth and moves toward and away from greater democracy. To address the potential endogeneity of economic growth, we use variation in precipitation, temperatures, and commodity prices as instruments for a country's rate of economic growth. Our results indicate that more rapid economic growth reduces the short-run likelihood of institutional change toward democracy. Output contractions due to adverse weather shocks appear to have a particularly important impact on the timing of democratic change. (JEL D72, E23, E32, O11, O17, O47)
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There is substantial statistical support for hypotheses linking democratic transitions and democratic survival to macroeconomic conditions, especially rapid economic expansion or contraction.
“There is substantial statistical support for the family of hypotheses linking democratic transitions and democratic survival to macroeconomic conditions, especially if the economy is rapidly expanding or contracting”
From Unwelcome Change: Coming to Terms with Democratic Backsliding (2018) · cites this paper as Burke & Leigh 2010
Output contraction caused by adverse weather shocks creates opportunities for democratic regime change, as seen during the Arab Spring.
“Burke and Leigh (2010) and Brückner and Ciccone (2012) demonstrated that output contraction caused by adverse weather shocks creates opportunities for democratic regime change, as seen during the Arab Spring, where economic downturns fueled popular uprisings across the region.”
From The impacts of climate change on violent conflict risk: a review of causal pathways (2024) · cites this paper as Burke and Leigh 2010
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References 74 · Cited by 176
- Authors
- Burke, P. J., & Leigh, A.
- Affiliations
- Australian National University (AU)
- Venue
- American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2010-10-01
- Volume
- 2
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 124-157
- ISSN
- 1945-7707 (ISSN-L)
- 1945-7715
- OpenAlex
- W2171266897
- Cited by
- 176
- References
- 74
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 20 · 2024: 15 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 7 · 2021: 15 · 2020: 10 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 7 · 2017: 12 · 2016: 9 · 2015: 16 · 2014: 15 · 2013: 16 · 2012: 10
- FWCI
- 36.38
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- hdl.handle.net
- Licence
- other-oa
- Locations
- American Economic Journal Macroeconomics (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- ANU Open Research (Australian National University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Corruption and Economic Development
- Social Sciences › Demography › Culture, Economy, and Development Studies
- Keywords
- economic growth, democratic change, democratization, output contraction, weather shocks, commodity prices, institutional change, precipitation, temperature
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