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Quantifying the Bullwhip Effect in a Simple Supply Chain: The Impact of Forecasting, Lead Times, and Information
Abstract
An important observation in supply chain management, known as the bullwhip effect, suggests that demand variability increases as one moves up a supply chain. In this paper we quantify this effect for simple, two-stage supply chains consisting of a single retailer and a single manufacturer. Our model includes two of the factors commonly assumed to cause the bullwhip effect: demand forecasting and order lead times. We extend these results to multiple-stage supply chains with and without centralized customer demand information and demonstrate that the bullwhip effect can be reduced, but not completely eliminated, by centralizing demand information.
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Citations
Cited by
Antecedents of supply chain visibility in retail supply chains: A resource‐based theory perspective
Barratt, M., & Oke, A. (2007) · Journal of Operations Management · doi:10.1016/j.jom.2007.01.003 · Cited by 702
The impact of transportation disruptions on supply chain performance
Wilson, M. C. (2007) · Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review · doi:10.1016/j.tre.2005.09.008 · Cited by 490
Lim, M. K., Tseng, M.-L., Tan, K. H., & Bui, T. D. (2017) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.06.056 · Cited by 292
Forecasting and operational research: a review
Fildes, R., Nikolopoulos, K., Crone, S. F., & Syntetos, A. A. (2008) · Journal of the Operational Research Society · doi:10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602597 · Cited by 287
Attaran, M., & Attaran, S. (2007) · Business Process Management Journal · doi:10.1108/14637150710752308 · Cited by 224
Metadata
- Authors
- Chen, F., Drezner, Z., Ryan, J. K., & Simchi-Levi, D.
- Venue
- Management Science
- Published
- 2000-03
- Volume
- 46
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 436-443
- ISSN
- 0025-1909 (ISSN-L)
- 1526-5501
- OpenAlex
- W2123594576
- Cited by
- 1,801
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 52.65
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Quantifying the Bullwhip Effect in a Simple Supply Chain: The Impact of Forecasting, Lead Times, and Information. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1287/mnsc.46.3.436.12069
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- Chen, F., Drezner, Z., Ryan, J. K., & Simchi-Levi, D. (2000). Quantifying the Bullwhip Effect in a Simple Supply Chain: The Impact of Forecasting, Lead Times, and Information. Management Science. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.46.3.436.12069
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Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
