How Trump Lost and Won
Abstract
The 2016 campaign ended with a surprising and inconclusive outcome: Hillary Clinton won the popular vote comfortably but lost the Electoral College to Donald Trump. We identify three factors that help explain this outcome. First, fundamental economic and political trends favored a Democratic popular vote win. Second, the party coalitions had become more polarized by race and education during Obama’s presidency. Third, Trump’s focus on issues connected to ethnic and social identities made attitudes toward immigration and African-Americans more important in voters’ choices in 2016 than they had been in 2012.
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There is growing evidence that racial prejudice and resentment is one of the critical determinants of the appeal of Donald Trump to a substantial proportion of American adults.
“There is growing evidence that racial prejudice and resentment is one of the critical determinants of the appeal of Donald Trump to a substantial proportion of American adults [128,129,130].”
From Reducing Racial Inequities in Health: Using What We Already Know to Take Action (2019) · cites this paper as [130]
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- Authors
- Sides, J., Tesler, M., & Vavreck, L.
- Venue
- Journal of Democracy
- Publisher
- Project MUSE
- Published
- 2017
- Volume
- 28
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 34-44
- ISSN
- 1045-5736 (ISSN-L)
- 1086-3214
- OpenAlex
- W2606939956
- Cited by
- 182
- References
- 5
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 21 · 2024: 15 · 2023: 12 · 2022: 12 · 2021: 19 · 2020: 43 · 2019: 40 · 2018: 12 · 2017: 3
- FWCI
- 130.31
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of democracy (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Electoral Systems and Political Participation
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Populism, Right-Wing Movements
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › History › American Political and Social Dynamics
- Keywords
- 2016 US presidential election, Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Electoral College, popular vote, partisan polarization, racial polarization, education and voting, immigration attitudes, African American voters, ethnic identity, social identity, Obama administration, vote choice
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