Human Population Density and Extinction Risk in the World's Carnivores
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Understanding why some species are at high risk of extinction, while others remain relatively safe, is central to the development of a predictive conservation science. Recent studies have shown that a species' extinction risk may be determined by two types of factors: intrinsic biological traits and exposure to external anthropogenic threats. However, little is known about the relative and interacting effects of intrinsic and external variables on extinction risk. Using phylogenetic comparative methods, we show that extinction risk in the mammal order Carnivora is predicted more strongly by biology than exposure to high-density human populations. However, biology interacts with human population density to determine extinction risk: biological traits explain 80% of variation in risk for carnivore species with high levels of exposure to human populations, compared to 45% for carnivores generally. The results suggest that biology will become a more critical determinant of risk as human populations expand. We demonstrate how a model predicting extinction risk from biology can be combined with projected human population density to identify species likely to move most rapidly towards extinction by the year 2030. African viverrid species are particularly likely to become threatened, even though most are currently considered relatively safe. We suggest that a preemptive approach to species conservation is needed to identify and protect species that may not be threatened at present but may become so in the near future.
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These concentrations occur mostly in heavily populated regions such as tropical Asia.
“They occur mostly in heavily populated regions such as tropical Asia, where major ongoing biodiversity losses are well known (10, 13–15, 30, 46, 52, 53).”
From Vertebrates on the brink as indicators of biological annihilation and the sixth mass extinction (2020) · cites this paper as [53]
Species at the brink have been pushed to a critical conservation status because of human activities, where habitat loss and fragmentation, illegal trade, overexploitation, introduced domestic and wild species, toxification, and pollution have played a major role.
“Fourth, species at the brink have been pushed to a critical conservation status because of human activities, where habitat loss and fragmentation, illegal trade, overexploitation, introduced domestic and wild species, toxification, and pollution have played a major role (10, 13–15, 30, 46, 52, 53).”
From Vertebrates on the brink as indicators of biological annihilation and the sixth mass extinction (2020) · cites this paper as [53]
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- Authors
- Cardillo, M., Purvis, A., Sechrest, W., Gittleman, J. L., Bielby, J., & Mace, G. M.
- Affiliations
- Zoological Society of London (GB)
- Imperial College London (GB)
- Conservation International (US)
- University of Virginia (US)
- Corresponding author
- Cardillo, Marcel
- Venue
- PLoS Biology
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Published
- 2004-07-13
- Volume
- 2
- Issue
- 7
- Pages
- e197
- ISSN
- 1544-9173 (ISSN-L)
- 1545-7885
- PMC
- PMC449851
- OpenAlex
- W1966746022
- Cited by
- 618
- References
- 33
- Citations by year
- 2026: 19 · 2025: 24 · 2024: 28 · 2023: 46 · 2022: 41 · 2021: 40 · 2020: 28 · 2019: 37 · 2018: 26 · 2017: 23 · 2016: 32 · 2015: 29 · 2014: 29 · 2013: 20 · 2012: 23
- FWCI
- 12.53
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- PLoS Biology (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- ANU Open Research (Australian National University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (0129009)
- Natural Environment Research Council
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Wildlife Ecology and Conservation
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Keywords
- extinction risk, human population density, Carnivora, carnivores, anthropogenic threats, conservation prioritization, phylogenetic comparative analysis
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Carnivora, Conservation of Natural Resources, Ecology, Environment, Biological Evolution, Humans, Mammals, Models, Biological, Phylogeny, Population Density, Population Dynamics, Regression Analysis, Risk, Species Specificity, Models, Statistical, Ecosystem, Biodiversity
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