Predicting extinction risk in declining species
Open accessAbstract
What biological attributes predispose species to the risk of extinction? There are many hypotheses but so far there has been no systematic analysis for discriminating between them. Using complete phylogenies of contemporary carnivores and primates, we present, to our knowledge, the first comparative test showing that high trophic level, low population density slow life history and, in particular, small geographical range size are all significantly and independently associated with a high extinction risk in declining species. These traits together explain nearly 50% of the total between-species variation in extinction risk. Much of the remaining variation can be accounted for by external anthropogenic factors that affect species irrespective of their biology.
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Almost all seabird species have low reproductive rates and long lifespans, and these traits amplify the effects of additive sources of mortality on long-term population trajectories.
“Almost all seabird species have low reproductive rates and long lifespans (Hamer et al. 2001), and these traits amplify the effects of additive sources of mortality on long‐term population trajectories (Purvis et al. 2000; Sæther and Bakke 2000).”
From River Otter Predation of Nesting Seabirds Along the Coasts of North America (2025) · cites this paper as Purvis et al. 2000
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“Almost all seabird species have low reproductive rates and long lifespans (Hamer et al. 2001), and these traits amplify the effects of additive sources of mortality on long-term population trajectories (Purvis et al. 2000; Sæther and Bakke 2000).”
- Authors
- Purvis, A., Gittleman, J. L., Cowlishaw, G., & Mace, G. M.
- Affiliations
- Natural Environment Research Council (GB)
- University of Virginia (US)
- Zoological Society of London (GB)
- Venue
- Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences
- Publisher
- The Royal Society
- Published
- 2000-10-07
- Volume
- 267
- Issue
- 1456
- Pages
- 1947-1952
- ISSN
- 0080-4649 (ISSN-L)
- 0962-8452
- 1471-2954
- PMC
- PMC1690772
- OpenAlex
- W2064475635
- Cited by
- 1,768
- References
- 2
- Citations by year
- 2026: 62 · 2025: 93 · 2024: 90 · 2023: 126 · 2022: 91 · 2021: 117 · 2020: 78 · 2019: 107 · 2018: 80 · 2017: 78 · 2016: 92 · 2015: 81 · 2014: 77 · 2013: 76 · 2012: 54
- FWCI
- 30.14
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- europepmc.org
- Locations
- Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Wildlife Ecology and Conservation
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Paleontology › Evolution and Paleontology Studies
- Keywords
- extinction risk, trophic levels, population density, life history, range size, carnivores, primates, phylogeny, anthropogenic factors, conservation biology
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Carnivora, Ecology, Models, Biological, Phylogeny, Predictive Value of Tests, Primates, Species Specificity, Risk Assessment
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