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Cited by 17Climate change and permafrostEcosystem dynamics and resilienceEcology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies

Browning events in Arctic ecosystems: Diverse causes with common consequences

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Phoenix, Gareth K., Bjerke, Jarle W., Björk, Robert G., Blok, Daan, Bryn, Anders, Callaghan, Terry V., Christiansen, Casper T., Cunliffe, Andrew M. +12 more·2025·PLOS Climate
DOI 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000570
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Abstract

Arctic ecosystems are experiencing extreme climatic, biotic and physical disturbance events that can cause substantial loss of plant biomass and productivity, sometimes at scales of >1000 km 2. Collectively known as browning events, these are key contributors to the spatial and temporal complexity of Arctic greening and vegetation dynamics. If we are to properly understand the future of Arctic terrestrial ecosystems, their productivity, and their feedbacks to climate, understanding browning events is essential. Here we bring together understanding of browning events in Arctic ecosystems to compare their impacts and rates of recovery, and likely future changes in frequency and distribution. We also seek commonalities in impacts across these contrasting event types. We find that while browning events can cause high levels of plant damage (up to 100% mortality), ecosystems have substantial capacity for recovery, with biomass largely re-established within five years for many events. We also find that despite the substantial loss of leaf area of dominant species, compensatory mechanisms such as increased productivity of undamaged subordinate species lessen the impacts on carbon sequestration. These commonalities hold true for most climatic and biotic events, but less so for physical events such as fire and abrupt permafrost thaw, due to the greater removal of vegetation. Counterintuitively, some events also provide conditions for greater productivity (greening) in the longer-term, particularly where the disturbance exposes ground for plant colonisation. Finally, we find that projected changes in the causes of browning events currently suggest many types of events will become more frequent, with events of tundra fire and abrupt permafrost thaw expected to be the greatest contributors to future browning due to their severe impacts and occurrence in many Arctic regions. Overall, browning events will have increasingly important consequences for ecosystem structure and function, and for feedback to climate.

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Crossref · 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000570

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  • Ecological disturbances, extreme events, and other causes of browning are increasing in frequency.

    “However, while changes to the Arctic climate have generally favored greening, ecological disturbances, extreme events, and other causes of browning (a decline in productivity that is opposite to greening) are also increasing in frequency (Phoenix et al. 2025).”

    From NOAA Arctic Report Card 2025: Tundra Greenness (2025) · cites this paper as Phoenix et al. 2025

    The Introduction says Arctic ecosystems are increasingly exposed to extreme disturbance events, and the Perspectives and future challenges section says most browning events are either known or expected to be increasing in frequency. The claim presents the increase as established for browning causes generally, whereas the paper treats it as a projection for some event types. (LLM, conf=0.87)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Tundra greenness is increasing across most of the Arctic due to rapid warming.

    “Tundra greenness is increasing across most of the Arctic due to rapid warming, but there are many localized areas of decline that reflect disturbances such as wildfire and extreme weather events.”

    From NOAA Arctic Report Card 2025: Tundra Greenness (2025) · cites this paper as Phoenix et al. 2025

    The Introduction describes a more widespread Arctic greening trend, alongside localized browning caused by disturbances including fire and extreme weather. The section on commonalities and contrasts links shrubification, a mechanism of greening, to plants suited to a warmer climate. However, the paper does not establish that rapid warming is the cause of increasing greenness across most of the Arctic. (LLM, conf=0.83)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • There are many localized areas of decline (browning) in tundra greenness that reflect disturbances such as wildfire and extreme weather events.

    “Tundra greenness is increasing across most of the Arctic due to rapid warming, but there are many localized areas of decline that reflect disturbances such as wildfire and extreme weather events.”

    From NOAA Arctic Report Card 2025: Tundra Greenness (2025) · cites this paper as Phoenix et al. 2025

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Cited by

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Authors
Phoenix, G. K., Bjerke, J. W., Björk, R. G., Blok, D., Bryn, A., Callaghan, T. V., Christiansen, C. T., Cunliffe, A. M., Davidson, S. J., Epstein, H. E., Loranty, M. M., Martin, A. C., Myers-Smith, I. H., Olofsson, J., Parker, T. C., Parmentier, F.-J. W., Stordal, F., Treharne, R., Tømmervik, H., & Voigt, C.
Affiliations
  • University of Sheffield (GB)
  • Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NO)
  • University of Gothenburg (SE)
  • Dutch Research Council (NL)
  • University of Oslo (NO)
  • National Research Tomsk State University (RU)
  • University of Copenhagen (DK)
  • University of Exeter (GB)
  • University of Plymouth (GB)
  • University of Virginia (US)
  • Colgate University (US)
  • University of Oxford (GB)
  • Umeå University (SE)
  • James Hutton Institute (GB)
  • Woodwell Climate Research Center (US)
  • Universität Hamburg (DE)
Corresponding author
Phoenix, Gareth K.
ORCID
Venue
PLOS Climate
Publisher
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Published
2025-01-27
Volume
4
Issue
1
Pages
e0000570
ISSN
2767-3200 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1371/journal.pclm.0000570
OpenAlex
W4406858033
Cited by
17
References
0
Citations by year
2026: 11 · 2025: 6
FWCI
7.38
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • PLOS Climate (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • Research at the University of Copenhagen (University of Copenhagen) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • Diva portal (Dalarna University Library) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (submittedVersion)
  • PEARL (University of Plymouth) (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • Natural Environment Research Council (NE/M016323/1)
  • National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NSSC18K0446)
  • Norges Forskningsråd (287402)
  • Horizon 2020 (869471)
  • P3 Sheffield
  • FRAM – High North Research Centre for Climate and the Environment (369910)
  • National Science Foundation (PLR-1417745)
  • INTERACT (871120)
  • Vetenskapsrådet (2018-04202 and 2023-04048)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Climate change and permafrost
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
Keywords
Arctic tundra, vegetation disturbance, tundra fire, vegetation recovery, carbon sequestration, greening

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

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