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Association of Early Repolarization Pattern on ECG with Risk of Cardiac and All-Cause Mortality: A Population-Based Prospective Cohort Study (MONICA/KORA)
Open accessAbstract
BACKGROUND: Early repolarization pattern (ERP) on electrocardiogram was associated with idiopathic ventricular fibrillation and sudden cardiac arrest in a case-control study and with cardiovascular mortality in a Finnish community-based sample. We sought to determine ERP prevalence and its association with cardiac and all-cause mortality in a large, prospective, population-based case-cohort study (Monitoring of Cardiovascular Diseases and Conditions [MONICA]/KORA [Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg]) comprised of individuals of Central-European descent. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Electrocardiograms of 1,945 participants aged 35-74 y, representing a source population of 6,213 individuals, were analyzed applying a case-cohort design. Mean follow-up was 18.9 y. Cause of death was ascertained by the 9th revision of the International Classification of Disease (ICD-9) codes as documented in death certificates. ERP-attributable effects on mortality were determined by a weighted Cox proportional hazard model adjusted for covariables. Prevalence of ERP was 13.1% in our study. ERP was associated with cardiac and all-cause mortality, most pronounced in those of younger age and male sex; a clear ERP-age interaction was detected (p = 0.005). Age-stratified analyses showed hazard ratios (HRs) for cardiac mortality of 1.96 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05-3.68, p = 0.035) for both sexes and 2.65 (95% CI 1.21-5.83, p = 0.015) for men between 35-54 y. An inferior localization of ERP further increased ERP-attributable cardiac mortality to HRs of 3.15 (95% CI 1.58-6.28, p = 0.001) for both sexes and to 4.27 (95% CI 1.90-9.61, p<0.001) for men between 35-54 y. HRs for all-cause mortality were weaker but reached significance. CONCLUSIONS: We found a high prevalence of ERP in our population-based cohort of middle-aged individuals. ERP was associated with about a 2- to 4-fold increased risk of cardiac mortality in individuals between 35 and 54 y. An inferior localization of ERP was associated with a particularly increased risk. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.
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“Furthermore, it has been shown in population-based studies to be associated with increased risk of cardiac death (352,353,355–357).”
From 2017 ACC/AHA/HRS Guideline for the Evaluation and Management of Patients With Syncope (2017) · cites this paper as [357]
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J wave syndromes in patients with spinal and bulbar muscular atrophy
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“The report of Sinner et al. [ 15 ] on a German based-population found that cardiac mortality was increased for both sexes in subjects with ER pattern but that men between 35 and 54 years had an increased “ER pattern attributable” cardiac mortality risk.”
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“This is supported by the sporadic nature of ER, and its “ambient” prevalence in the general population (2,7,10,18,22).”
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“120 Early repolarization (ER) is a common electrocardiographic finding, being seen in 5% to 13% of Europeans.(1,2) Although long thought to be a benign variant or even a marker of cardiovascular health,(3,4) robust data now point to such changes as a marker of elevated risk of ventricular fibrillation (VF) and cardiac…”
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“Additionally, there is an increased risk of experiencing syncope or sudden cardiac arrest if idiopathic ventricular fibrillation patients have ER pattern in their electrocardiographies (2, 3).”
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Epidemiology of early repolarization pattern in an adult general population
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“The early repolarization pattern (ERP), manifested as elevation of the QRS-ST junction (J-point) affecting 1% to 13% of general population, has been traditionally considered a benign entity.(1) Nevertheless, more recent studies have shown positive, negative, and neutral relationships between ERP and cardiovascular out…”
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BackgroundResultSelf-citationPrevalence of early repolarization pattern in patients with lone atrial fibrillation
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J wave patterns and ST elevation in women
Yong, C. M., Zarafshar, S., & Froelicher, V. F. (2013) · Journal of Electrocardiology · doi:10.1016/j.jelectrocard.2013.06.027 · Cited by 5
Early Repolarisation – What Should the Clinician Do?
Obeyesekere, M., Krahn, A. D., & Cabrini and Epworth Healthcare Groups, V. (2015) · Arrhythmia & Electrophysiology Review · doi:10.15420/aer.2015.04.02.96 · Cited by 5
Kocsis, L., Pap, Z., & Frigy, A. (2022) · Journal of Cardiovascular Development and Disease · doi:10.3390/jcdd10010004 · Cited by 5
“These results were confirmed later by several other studies of subjects who died from different cardiovascular diseases [18,19,21].”
The relationship between J waves and contact of lung cancer with the heart
Hayashi, H., Wu, Q., & Horie, M. (2017) · Annals of Noninvasive Electrocardiology · doi:10.1111/anec.12433 · Cited by 5
“We do not know the reason exactly; but, a possible explanation is that the follow- up period of this study was too short as compared to previous studies (Haissaguerre et al., 2008; Olson, Viera, Soliman, Crow, & Rosamond, 2011; Rollin et al., 2012; Sinner et al., 2010; Tikkanen et al., 2009).”
Yamashina, Y., Yagi, T., Namekawa, A., Ishida, A., Sato, H., Nakagawa, T., Sakuramoto, M., Sato, E., & Yambe, T. (2011) · Journal of the American College of Cardiology · doi:10.1016/s0735-1097(11)60074-0 · Cited by 5
Hajhosseiny, R., Rajani, R., Khavandi, K., Sebag, F. A., Mashayekhi, S., Wright, M. J., & Goldsmith, D. J. A. (2013) · Frontiers in Physiology · doi:10.3389/fphys.2013.00127 · Cited by 5
“Finally, in a study of 1945 individuals aged between 35 and 74 years of age (Sinner et al., 2010), found a greater than 2-fold-increased risk of cardiac mortality in participants with ER compared to individuals without ER.”
BackgroundJ Wave Syndromes: Brugada and Early Repolarization Syndromes
Antzelevitch, C., & Barajas-Martinez, H. (2020) · Contemporary Cardiology · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-41967-7_30 · Cited by 10
The Phenomenon of Early Repolarization
Tikkanen, J. T. (2014) · Circulation Arrhythmia and Electrophysiology · doi:10.1161/circep.114.001792 · Cited by 5
The clinical significance of early repolarization: A meta-analysis of mortality risk
Elenizi, K., Alharthi, R., Gamil, S., Aldeen, A. S., & Alqarawi, W. (2025) · Journal of Electrocardiology · doi:10.1016/j.jelectrocard.2025.153939 · Cited by 4
An extreme example of early repolarization
Altunbaş, G. (2018) · The Anatolian Journal of Cardiology · doi:10.14744/anatoljcardiol.2018.14265 · Cited by 4
“Two major population-based studies consistently showed that inferior localization of early repolarization pattern carries the highest risk of arrhythmic death (6, 7).”
Early Repolarization: Not Benign Any More- the J-Wave Syndromes
Bronis, K., Kappos, K. G., & Manolis, A. S. (2012) · Hospital chronicles/Hospital Chronicles · doi:10.2015/hc.v7i4.513 · Cited by 4
Prevalence and Prognostic Value of Early Repolarization in Low Risk Surgical Patients
Ota, C., Shiono, S.-N., Fujino, Y., Kamibayashi, T., & Hayashi, Y. (2015) · BioMed Research International · doi:10.1155/2015/309260 · Cited by 4
“[6] documented that the overall prevalence of early repolarization was 13.”
BackgroundResultVinsonneau, U., Pangnarind‐Heinz, V., Paleiron, N., Heinz, L. M., Rohel, G., Piquemal, M., Castellant, P., Abaléa, J., Mansourati, J., & Paule, P. (2014) · Annals of Noninvasive Electrocardiology · doi:10.1111/anec.12231 · Cited by 4
Viskin, S., & Rosso, R. (2017) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-323-44733-1.00096-1 · Cited by 4
Lanza, G. A., Melita, V., Vita, A. D., Bisignani, A., Mollo, R., & Crea, F. (2022) · Frontiers in Cardiovascular Medicine · doi:10.3389/fcvm.2022.831381 · Cited by 4
“Some studies, indeed, found that the increased risk was related to the presence of a prominent J wave, but not of the typical ST-segment elevation (13, 14, 18) others showed a significant association with clinical events of notched, rather than slurred, J wave, and of inferior, rather than anterolateral, J wave locati…”
ResultEl-Azrak, M., Darar, C., Boutaybi, M., Ouafi, N. E., & Bazid, Z. (2023) · Current Cardiology Reports · doi:10.1007/s11886-023-01842-5 · Cited by 4
The Role of Holter Monitoring in the Diagnosis of Early Repolarisation Pattern
Ji, C., Chen, X., Cheng, Y., Liu, L., Tang, K., Zhu, W.-Q., Huang, Y., Chen, W., & Wu, S. (2017) · Heart Lung and Circulation · doi:10.1016/j.hlc.2017.10.005 · Cited by 4
Early repolarization pattern in an ethnically diverse population: Increased risk in Hispanics
Leiderman, E., Kargoli, F., Shulman, E. H., Aagaard, P., Hoch, E. G., Zaremski, L., Biase, L. D., Kim, S. G., GROSS, J. N., Ferrick, K. J., et al. (2019) · Pacing and Clinical Electrophysiology · doi:10.1111/pace.13827 · Cited by 4
Prevalence of Early Repolarization Patterns in Adults.
Barakoti, M. P., Karki, A., Chaulagain, M., & Karki, D. B. (2016) · PubMed · Cited by 4
ST-Segment Elevation: Defined by the Company It Keeps
O’Keefe, J. H., Bybee, K. A., Lavie, C. J., & Hammill, S. C. (2012) · Mayo Clinic Proceedings · doi:10.1016/j.mayocp.2012.05.003 · Cited by 4
Early Repolarization: A Rare Primary Arrhythmic Syndrome and Common Modifier of Arrhythmic Risk
Roberts, J. D., & Gollob, M. H. (2013) · Journal of Cardiovascular Electrophysiology · doi:10.1111/jce.12156 · Cited by 3
Chen, X.-M., Ji, C.-C., Cheng, Y., Liu, L., Zhu, W.-Q., Huang, Y., Chen, W., & Wu, S. (2016) · Clinical Cardiology · doi:10.1002/clc.22587 · Cited by 3
Rohel, G., Perrier, E., Delluc, A., Monin, J., Manen, O., Paule, P., Piquemal, M., Mansourati, J., & Vinsonneau, U. (2017) · Annals of Noninvasive Electrocardiology · doi:10.1111/anec.12451 · Cited by 3
Creta, A., Arigliani, M., Gioia, G. D., Lapenna, R., Quintarelli, F., Fittipaldi, M., Antinolfi, V., Bettini, R., Costanzo, D., Cruciani, A., et al. (2019) · Pediatric Cardiology · doi:10.1007/s00246-019-02185-1 · Cited by 3
Szabó, I. A., Kocsis, L., László, S., Fehérvári, L., Fárr, A.-M., & Frigy, A. (2021) · Orvosi Hetilap · doi:10.1556/650.2021.32061 · Cited by 3
Ouali, S., Salem, D. B., Hammas, Neffeti, Remedi, Mahdhaoui, Boughzala, Mankai, & Salem (2011) · Open Access Journal of Sports Medicine · doi:10.2147/oajsm.s19029 · Cited by 3
Brugada syndrome and early repolarization syndrome: Cellular basis and clinical features
Nam, G. (2013) · Journal of Arrhythmia · doi:10.1016/j.joa.2013.01.003 · Cited by 3
“In contrast, patients with ER according to the new definition (the presence of the terminal QRS notch or slur, irrespective of the ST segment changes) [19–22], have prognostic implications.”
BackgroundMethodCorlan, A. D., Amuzescu, B. P., Milicin, I., Iordachescu, V., Poenaru, E., Corlan, I., & AMBROGGI, L. D. (2011) · Cited by 3
Ethnic variation in prevalence of end QRS notching and slurring in apparently healthy populations
Clark, E., & Macfarlane, P. W. (2014) · Computing in cardiology · Cited by 3
J Point Elevation in Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy
Maron, M. S. (2017) · JACC. Clinical electrophysiology · doi:10.1016/j.jacep.2017.06.004 · Cited by 3
“Numerous subsequent studies in normal populations have suggested that the presence of a J wave confined to the inferior or lateral leads with horizontal or descending ST-segments identifies individuals at the highest risk for VF (7).”
BackgroundEarly Repolarization: A Comparative Study of Demographic and Ethnic Differences
Elenizi, K., Alharthi, R., Gamil, S., Aldeen, A. S., & Alqarawi, W. (2025) · Pacing and Clinical Electrophysiology · doi:10.1111/pace.70042 · Cited by 2
The Significance of Early Repolarization and Incomplete Right Bundle Block in Athletes
Rafla, S. M. (2020) · International Journal of Sports and Exercise Medicine · doi:10.23937/2469-5718/1510168 · Cited by 2
“The prevalence of ERS varies between 3% and 24%, depending on age, sex and J-point elevation (0.05 mV vs. 0.1 mV) being the main determinants.”
BackgroundInfluentialAutonomic Influences Related to Early Repolarization in Patients Without Structural Heart Disease
Chen, X., Fan, J., Cheng, Y., Ji, C., Yao, F., & Wu, S. (2020) · Journal of Cardiovascular Translational Research · doi:10.1007/s12265-020-10033-4 · Cited by 2
Is Early Repolarization Syndrome a Risk for Sudden Cardiac Death in Young Athletes?
Tremamunno, S., & Lanza, G. A. (2023) · Current Treatment Options in Cardiovascular Medicine · doi:10.1007/s11936-023-01007-1 · Cited by 2
Metadata
- Authors
- Sinner, M. F., Reinhard, W., Müller, M., Beckmann, B.-M., Martens, E., Perz, S., Pfeufer, A., Winogradow, J., Stark, K., Meisinger, C., Wichmann, H.-E., Peters, A., Riegger, G. A. J., Steinbeck, G., Hengstenberg, C., & Kääb, S.
- Affiliations
- Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (DE)
- University Hospital Regensburg (DE)
- Helmholtz Munich (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Kääb, Stefan
- ORCID
- Venue
- PLoS Medicine
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Published
- 2010-07-27
- Volume
- 7
- Issue
- 7
- Pages
- e1000314
- ISSN
- 1549-1277 (ISSN-L)
- 1549-1676
- PMC
- PMC2910598
- OpenAlex
- W2133142369
- Cited by
- 282
- References
- 35
- Citations by year
- 2026: 7 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 7 · 2022: 12 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 11 · 2019: 18 · 2018: 14 · 2017: 25 · 2016: 32 · 2015: 26 · 2014: 19 · 2013: 39 · 2012: 24
- FWCI
- 20.87
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- PLoS Medicine (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Open access LMU (Ludwid Maxmilian's Universitat Munchen) (submittedVersion)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- mediaTUM (Technical University of Munich) (submittedVersion)
- Site cant be reached (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- OPUS (Augsburg University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
- Fondation Leducq (01GS0838)
- Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (01GS0499, 01GS0838)
- Münchner Zentrum für Gesundheitswissenschaften
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Cardiac electrophysiology and arrhythmias
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Cardiovascular Effects of Exercise
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Cardiac Health and Mental Health
- Keywords
- early repolarization, electrocardiogram, cardiac mortality, all-cause mortality, sudden cardiac death, age-stratified risk, sex differences, middle-aged adults, cardiovascular risk factors, Central European population, idiopathic ventricular fibrillation, sudden cardiac arrest, cardiovascular disease monitoring, cardiovascular disease prevention, cardiovascular disease treatment
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Aged, Cause of Death, Electrocardiography, Female, Germany, Heart Diseases, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Population, Population Surveillance, Prospective Studies, Risk, Time Factors, Cohort Studies, Case-Control Studies
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