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Implications of reducing antibiotic treatment duration for antimicrobial resistance in hospital settings: A modelling study and meta-analysis
Open accessAbstract
Background: Reducing antibiotic treatment duration is a key component of hospital antibiotic stewardship interventions. However, its effectiveness in reducing antimicrobial resistance is uncertain and a clear theoretical rationale for the approach is lacking. In this study, we sought to gain a mechanistic understanding of the relation between antibiotic treatment duration and the prevalence of colonisation with antibiotic-resistant bacteria in hospitalised patients. Methods and findings: We constructed 3 stochastic mechanistic models that considered both between- and within-host dynamics of susceptible and resistant gram-negative bacteria, to identify circumstances under which shortening antibiotic duration would lead to reduced resistance carriage. In addition, we performed a meta-analysis of antibiotic treatment duration trials, which monitored resistant gram-negative bacteria carriage as an outcome. We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE for randomised controlled trials published from 1 January 2000 to 4 October 2022, which allocated participants to varying durations of systemic antibiotic treatments. Quality assessment was performed using the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool for randomised trials. The meta-analysis was performed using logistic regression. Duration of antibiotic treatment and time from administration of antibiotics to surveillance culture were included as independent variables. Both the mathematical modelling and meta-analysis suggested modest reductions in resistance carriage could be achieved by reducing antibiotic treatment duration. The models showed that shortening duration is most effective at reducing resistance carriage in high compared to low transmission settings. For treated individuals, shortening duration is most effective when resistant bacteria grow rapidly under antibiotic selection pressure and decline rapidly when stopping treatment. Importantly, under circumstances whereby administered antibiotics can suppress colonising bacteria, shortening antibiotic treatment may increase the carriage of a particular resistance phenotype. We identified 206 randomised trials, which investigated antibiotic duration. Of these, 5 reported resistant gram-negative bacteria carriage as an outcome and were included in the meta-analysis. The meta-analysis determined that a single additional antibiotic treatment day is associated with a 7% absolute increase in risk of resistance carriage (80% credible interval 3% to 11%). Interpretation of these estimates is limited by the low number of antibiotic duration trials that monitored carriage of resistant gram-negative bacteria, as an outcome, contributing to a large credible interval. Conclusions: In this study, we found both theoretical and empirical evidence that reducing antibiotic treatment duration can reduce resistance carriage, though the mechanistic models also highlighted circumstances under which reducing treatment duration can, perversely, increase resistance. Future antibiotic duration trials should monitor antibiotic-resistant bacteria colonisation as an outcome to better inform antibiotic stewardship policies.
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Median time to pathogen identification with standard techniques is approximately 96 h.
“Median times to pathogen identification with standard techniques have been reported near 96 h, a critical window during which unnecessary antimicrobial exposure can increase adverse events and the risk of colonization by resistant organisms (3–5).”
From Optimized use of the FilmArray Meningitis/Encephalitis panel for early discontinuation of antibiotic therapy (2026) · cites this paper as [5]
The Results section discusses antibiotic duration and resistant-bacteria carriage, but does not report a time to pathogen identification. Searches for “96 h” and conventional microbiology turnaround time found no supporting passage in our copy; page numbers were unavailable. (LLM, conf=0.73)
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Simplified oral antibiotic regimen for pyogenic flexor tenosynovitis
Lataste, E., Jeudy, J., Cesari, B., & Bigorre, N. (2026) · Hand surgery & rehabilitation · doi:10.1016/j.hansur.2026.102724 · Cited by 2
Ntais, C., & Chatziprodromidou, I. P. (2026) · Infectious Disease Reports · doi:10.3390/idr18040070 · Cited by 2
“When patients discontinue their medication too early upon noticing an improvement in clinical symptoms or when they do not receive adequate doses, this creates an opportunity for partially resistant bacterial populations to develop into completely resistant populations [15,16].”
Loftus, R. W., Dexter, F., Parra, M. C., Hwang, S. M., Robinson, A. D. M., Charnin, J. E., Loftus, C. P., & Wanta, B. T. (2025) · Cureus · doi:10.7759/cureus.81885 · Cited by 2
“…with prior work showing that transmission of antibiotic-resistant isolates among anesthesia workspace reservoirs is associated with increased risk of infection development [2,22] and adding to prior work by the extension from surgical site infections to all-cause healthcare-associated infections.”
InfluentialLaPrete, C. R., Ahmed, S. M., Toth, D. J. A., Reimer, J. R., Vaughn, V. M., Adler, F. R., & Keegan, L. T. (2025) · Bulletin of Mathematical Biology · doi:10.1007/s11538-025-01432-2 · Cited by 2
“…et al. 2014); antibiotics have been shown to disrupt the gut microbiome, particularly in children where it can lead to conditions such as obesity (Liu et al. 2021); and may increase an individual’s risk of developing future antibiotic-resistant infections (Mo et al. 2023; Magill et al. 2014).”
Ong, D. T., Mertaniasih, N. M., Santoso, K. H., Atika, A., Koendhori, E. B., & Endraswari, P. D. (2025) · Journal of Pure and Applied Microbiology · doi:10.22207/jpam.19.2.26 · Cited by 2
Yang, Y.-T., Wong, D., Zhong, X., Fahmi, A., Ashcroft, D. M., Hand, K. S. P., Massey, J., MacKenna, B., Mehrkar, A., Bacon, S., et al. (2024) · Antibiotics · doi:10.3390/antibiotics13060566 · Cited by 2
“Furthermore, the gut microbiota serves as a reservoir for antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs), with prolonged treatment linked to increased antimicrobial resistance (AMR) risks [18,19].”
BackgroundNicolau-Guillaumet, N., Moutel, M., Plouzeau-Jayle, C., Pean de Ponfilly, G., Courbin, V., Ranc, A.-G., Revillet, H., Mourvillier, B., Hentzien, M., Muggeo, A., et al. (2026) · Microbiology Spectrum · doi:10.1128/spectrum.00566-26 · Cited by 1
Mugada, V., Galanki, V., Puvvada, S. M., Triveni, Y., Kumar, C. V. N., & Ravipati, A. (2024) · Hacettepe University Journal of the Faculty of Pharmacy · doi:10.52794/hujpharm.1490671 · Cited by 1
Short-course antibiotic strategies for ventilator-associated pneumonia
Tan, W. C., Quah, J., & Li, A. (2025) · Current Opinion in Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1097/qco.0000000000001094 · Cited by 1
“Apart from increased drug toxicities [10], prolonged antibiotic that MDR pathogens emerged more frequently among patients with pulmonary infection recurrence who had received 15 days of antibiotics as compared to 8 days [12].”
Global Antimicrobial Resistance: Strategies and Challenges
Laghari, S. A., Kalwar, Q., Rahimoon, M. M., Saboor, A., Soomro, F. U. R., Hussain, F., Muhammad, T., Soomro, M. A., & Soomro, A. U. R. (2025) · MARKHOR (The Journal of Zoology) · doi:10.54393/mjz.v6i1.146 · Cited by 1
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“…additional day of antibiotics increases the absolute risk for carriage of resistant gram-negative pathogens by 7%, in a meta-analysis from mixed study populations comparing short-versus long-term antibiotic treatment for urinary tract infections, otitis media, and neonatal late-onset sepsis [39].”
Ong, S. W. X., Patrikar, A., Pinto, R. L., Mahar, R. K., Rishu, A., Davis, J. S., Fowler, R. A., Tong, S. Y. C., & Daneman, N. (2026) · Open Forum Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1093/ofid/ofag142 · Cited by 1
“…with at least 1 emergency department visit. c Note that we are unable to report numbers of individual AROs or CDI due to privacy restrictions from ICES precluding disallowing reporting of small cell sizes < 6 to limit re-identification risk. settings compared to low-transmission settings [18].”
Factors influencing antibiotic use in confirmed viral respiratory tract infections
Fauzi, S. M. M., Egwu, A., Kelleher, M., Kent, B. D., Nee, R., Conway, A., McGrath, J., Bergin, C. J., & Townsend, L. (2026) · Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy · doi:10.1093/jac/dkag321 · Cited by 1
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Pérez, S. G., Díaz‐Brochero, C., Herazo, J. R. G., & Múñoz, Ó. (2024) · Therapeutic Advances in Infectious Disease · doi:10.1177/20499361241237615 · Cited by 1
Antimicrobial stewardship: from theory to reality in a resource-limited setting (and beyond)
Ochoa‐Hein, E., & Galindo‐Fraga, A. (2024) · Frontiers in Antibiotics · doi:10.3389/frabi.2024.1492319 · Cited by 1
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“16 reported thatdecreasedantibiotictreatmentdur-ation was associated with a reduction in antibiotic resistance, and a retrospective cohort analysis of hospitalized adult patients by Brower et al. 17 further af fi rmed that most patients were treated with antibiotics beyond recommended guidelines.”
Ahmed, S. M., LaPrete, C. R., Ciglenečki, I., Azman, A. S., Leung, D. T., & Keegan, L. T. (2024) · medRxiv · doi:10.1101/2024.11.04.24316579 · Cited by 1
Sayyar, Z., Sadigh, M. K., Pakdel, P. M., Sadeghpour, P., & Sayyar, M. R. (2025) · Journal of Polymers and the Environment · doi:10.1007/s10924-025-03541-4
“The OFL is chemically stable in the environment [ 2 , 4 ].”
Are Procalcitonin Measures a Reliable Predictor of Stopping Antibiotics Among Patients With Sepsis?
Arrigo, M., & Huber, L. C. (2025) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.2025.0788
A multicenter audit of 1295 daptomycin prescriptions in the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region
Cras, R. L., Solomovici, B., Lesprit, P., Foroni, L., Ameye, T., Baud, O., Boden, S., Bourget, S., Bricca, R., Chatron, C., et al. (2025) · Infectious Diseases Now · doi:10.1016/j.idnow.2025.105106
Cras, R. L., Vidal, P., Pavèse, P., François, P., Sette, A. L., & Lesprit, P. (2025) · Infectious Diseases Now · doi:10.1016/j.idnow.2025.105165
Prebble, K., & Marefat, L. (2025) · Hospital Pharmacy · doi:10.1177/00185787251390774
Ilges, D., Jensen, K. L., Draper, E. W., Thompson, E., Quillen, J. K., Hannan, K. N. A., Ton, A. N., Prigge, K. A., Vergidis, P. I., Virk, A., et al. (2026) · Clinical Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1093/cid/ciag244
Outcomes of Surgical Site Infection Following Cranial Surgery From a UK Tertiary Center
Jones, T. P., Davis, P., O’Sullivan, O., Ganau, M., Halliday, J., Hadjipavlou, G., Scarborough, M., & Andersson, M. I. (2026) · Open Forum Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1093/ofid/ofag369
“Indications for earlier surgical interventions, as well as approaches that better delineate only those patients who would benefit from prolonged courses of therapy, would be helpful to reduce the risk of antimicrobial resistance and toxicity [25].”
Cai, Y., Morton, A., Graves, N., & Paterson, D. L. (2026) · Clinical Microbiology and Infection · doi:10.1016/j.cmi.2026.09.002
Смирнова, С. С., Kameneva, A., Avdyunin, D. D., Stagilskaya, Y. S., & Zhuikov, N. N. (2026) · Epidemiology and Infectious Diseases · doi:10.17816/eid705333
Metadata
- Authors
- Mo, Y., Oonsivilai, M., Lim, C., Niehus, R., & Cooper, B. S.
- Affiliations
- National University of Singapore (SG)
- Mahidol University (TH)
- Corresponding author
- Mo, Yin
- Venue
- PLOS Medicine
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Published
- 2023-06-15
- Volume
- 20
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- e1004013
- ISSN
- 1549-1277 (ISSN-L)
- 1549-1676
- PMC
- PMC10270346
- OpenAlex
- W4380870364
- Cited by
- 52
- References
- 40
- Citations by year
- 2026: 12 · 2025: 22 · 2024: 16 · 2023: 2
- FWCI
- 9.81
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- PLoS Medicine (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Greater South Information System
- Funders
- National Medical Research Council (NMRC/Fellowship/0051/2017)
- Medical Research Council (MR/V028456/1)
- Wellcome Trust (206736/Z/17/Z, 106698/Z/14/Z)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › Antibiotic Use and Resistance
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Microbiology (medical) › Antibiotic Resistance in Bacteria
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › Infection Control in Healthcare
- Keywords
- antibiotic duration, antimicrobial resistance, hospital antibiotic stewardship, Gram-negative bacteria, bacterial colonization, mechanistic mathematical model, antibiotic selection pressure
- MeSH terms
- Duration of Therapy, Anti-Bacterial Agents, Humans, Drug Resistance, Bacterial
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