El Niño Southern Oscillation and Leptospirosis Outbreaks in New Caledonia.
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Leptospirosis is an important cause of seasonal outbreaks in New Caledonia and the tropics. Using time series derived from high-quality laboratory-based surveillance from 2000-2012, we evaluated whether climatic factors, including El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and meteorological conditions allow for the prediction of leptospirosis outbreaks in New Caledonia. We found that La Niña periods are associated with high rainfall, and both of these factors were in turn, temporally associated with outbreaks of leptospirosis. The sea surface temperature in El Niño Box 4 allowed forecasting of leptospirosis outbreaks four months into the future, a time lag allowing public health authorities to increase preparedness. To our knowledge, our observations in New Caledonia are the first demonstration that ENSO has a strong association with leptospirosis. This association should be tested in other regions in the South Pacific, Asia or Latin America where ENSO may drive climate variability and the risk for leptospirosis outbreaks.
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There is a notable association between outbreaks of leptospirosis and heavy rain influenced by ocean stream patterns.
“with a notable association between outbreaks of leptospirosis, a neglected tropical bacterial zoonotic disease, and heavy rain influenced by ocean stream patterns [26]”
From Colonial transition as a major mediator of global health transition: lessons from the 2024 New Caledonia crisis (2025) · cites this paper as [26]
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- Authors
- Weinberger, D., Baroux, N., Grangeon, J.-P., Ko, A. I., & Goarant, C.
- Affiliations
- Yale University (US)
- Institut Pasteur (FR)
- Gouvernement de la Nouvelle-Calédonie (NC)
- Corresponding author
- Goarant, Cyrille
- Venue
- PLoS neglected tropical diseases
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Published
- 2014-04-17
- Volume
- 8
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- e2798
- ISSN
- 1935-2727 (ISSN-L)
- 1935-2735
- PMC
- PMC3990495
- OpenAlex
- W1981269257
- Cited by
- 76
- References
- 42
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 4 · 2020: 8 · 2019: 5 · 2018: 6 · 2017: 4 · 2016: 8 · 2015: 4 · 2014: 3
- FWCI
- 4.61
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- PLoS neglected tropical diseases (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Americanae (AECID Library) (publishedVersion, other-oa)
- HAL (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Arca - Repositório Institucional da Fiocruz (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- LA Referencia (Red Federada de Repositorios Institucionales de Publicaciones Científicas) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- Yale University
- National Institutes of Health
- National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (R01AI052473, U01AI088752)
- Fogarty International Center (R01TW009504)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Immunology and Microbiology › Parasitology › Leptospirosis research and findings
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Research on Leishmaniasis Studies
- Keywords
- leptospirosis, ENSO, La Niña, seasonal outbreaks, rainfall, sea surface temperature, climate variability, outbreak forecasting, public health preparedness, New Caledonia
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Child, Child, Preschool, Disease Outbreaks, Female, Humans, Infant, Leptospirosis, Male, Middle Aged, New Caledonia, Young Adult, El Nino-Southern Oscillation
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