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Cited by 78Pacific and Southeast Asian StudiesArchaeology and ancient environmental studiesMaritime and Coastal Archaeology

Bayesian Modeling and Chronological Precision for Polynesian Settlement of Tonga

Open access
Burley, David, Edinborough, Kevan, Weisler, Marshall, Zhao, Jian-xin·2015·PLOS ONE
DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0120795PMC PMC4370570
Open this paper in CoChat — free accountOpen PDF

Abstract

First settlement of Polynesia, and population expansion throughout the ancestral Polynesian homeland are foundation events for global history. A precise chronology is paramount to informed archaeological interpretation of these events and their consequences. Recently applied chronometric hygiene protocols excluding radiocarbon dates on wood charcoal without species identification all but eliminates this chronology as it has been built for the Kingdom of Tonga, the initial islands to be settled in Polynesia. In this paper we re-examine and redevelop this chronology through application of Bayesian models to the questioned suite of radiocarbon dates, but also incorporating short-lived wood charcoal dates from archived samples and high precision U/Th dates on coral artifacts. These models provide generation level precision allowing us to track population migration from first Lapita occupation on the island of Tongatapu through Tonga's central and northern island groups. They further illustrate an exceptionally short duration for the initial colonizing Lapita phase and a somewhat abrupt transition to ancestral Polynesian society as it is currently defined.

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

Bayesian modeling of 65 radiocarbon and U/Th dates redevelops the Tongan chronology after chronometric hygiene would otherwise eliminate most charcoal dates. The models provide generation-level precision for Lapita settlement and show an exceptionally short initial Lapita phase followed by a rapid transition to Polynesian Plainware.

Key findings

  • First Lapita landfall at Nukuleka, Tongatapu, is dated by U/Th to 2846–2830 cal BP (2σ); the Lapita overlap model gives a closely comparable start of 2863–2835 cal BP (68.2%).
  • Haʻapai was settled 70–90 years after Tongatapu, with a modeled start of 2772–2759 cal BP (68.2%); its Lapita phase lasted only 32–49 years in the overlap model, or 31–53 years in the contiguous model, with a Lapita-to-Plainware transition at 2726–2701 cal BP.
  • Vavaʻu’s modeled Lapita start is 2805–2760 cal BP, end 2709–2680 cal BP, duration 51–82 years; this start is statistically indistinguishable from Haʻapai’s, though the authors continue to hypothesize slightly later Vavaʻu settlement.
  • Lapita phase durations are 129–158 years on Tongatapu, 32–49 years in Haʻapai, and 51–82 years in Vavaʻu; 44 of 46 accepted radiocarbon dates (95.7%) were robust in the Bayesian model, with only two rejected as outliers.

Methods

  • The study uses OxCal 4.2.3 with SHCal13 calibration and Bayesian overlap models for Lapita and Polynesian Plainware phases across Tongatapu, Haʻapai, and Vavaʻu, plus a contiguous model for Haʻapai short-lived and U/Th dates.
  • The total sample is 65 dates: 14 short-lived radiocarbon dates, 5 extinct iguana bone dates, 32 unidentified wood charcoal dates, and 14 high-precision U/Th dates on coral abraders; shell dates were excluded.
  • Archived charcoal was re-examined, identifying 11 of 32 as short-lived (mostly coconut endocarp), and two additional short-lived dates from Petchey and Clark were included; U/Th dates include eight previously published from Nukuleka and six from five other Lapita sites.

Limitations

  • The paper states that Tongatapu’s Lapita end date and duration rest on only two sites, and that Vavaʻu has limited samples (six radiocarbon dates and one U/Th date) whose position on the calibration curve increases posterior spread.
  • The paper states that Polynesian Plainware models for Tongatapu and Vavaʻu are inadequate because of only three and two dates, respectively, and that all Plainware dates fall within the flattened “Hallstatt Plateau” (2650–2350 BP).
  • The paper notes that iguana bone dates lack appropriate quality-control indicators, that unidentified charcoal may carry inbuilt age, and that the remaining 21 charcoal samples could possibly be short-lived but could not be identified; evident from the text, there are no acceptable Lapita-age radiocarbon or U/Th dates for Niuatoputapu, so its settlement is inferred from volcanic glass.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1371/journal.pone.0120795

Cites

31 of 31 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

0 of 24 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged

  • Findingreasoning

    Two coconut endocarp radiocarbon dates recently published by Petchey and Clark bring the total number of short-lived sample dates to 14.

    “We additionally incorporate two coconut endocarp radiocarbon dates recently published by Petchey and Clark [14] bringing the total number of short-lived sample dates to 14.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [14] F Petchey, 2011, Tongatapu hardwater: Investigation into the <sup>14</sup>C marine reservoir offset in lagoon, reef and open ocean environments of a limestone island, Quaternary Geochronology source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Findingown data

    The overlap model start date for first settlement on Tongatapu is estimated to be 2863-2835 cal BP.

    “Moreover, the overlap model start date for first settlement on the island of Tongatapu is estimated to be 2863–2835 cal BP.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    The end date for Lapita in Haʻapai is 2728-2716 cal BP (68.2%).

    “The end date for Lapita in Haʻapai is 2728–2716 cal BP (68.2%).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingnone given

    The 68.2% probability ranges for Lapita end dates for each island group in the overlap model provide comparable measures for ceramic transition across the archipelago.

    “The 68.2% probability ranges for Lapita end dates for each of the island groups in the overlap model provides comparable measures for ceramic transition across the archipelago.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingreasoning

    The interval between first settlement and the loss of decorated Lapita ceramics in Haʻapai is between 32 and 49 years in duration.

    “The interval between first settlement and the loss of decorated Lapita ceramics in Haʻapai is startling short, between 32 and 49 years in duration.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims. 30
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 11

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Of 32 archived unidentified wood charcoal dates acquired by Burley, 11 were identified as coming from short-lived material, all but one being coconut endocarp.

    “First, 32 of the unidentified wood charcoal dates acquired by Burley had remnant samples retained as an archive. These were re-examined with 11 identified subsequently as coming from short-lived material, all but one being coconut endocarp (S1 Text).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    The total cumulative sample of dates for analysis is 65; 28 are high precision U/Th dates or short-lived sample radiocarbon measurements.

    “The total cumulative sample of dates for analysis is 65; 28 are now high precision U/Th dates or short-lived sample radiocarbon measurements.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    For Tongatapu, the end date is 2703-2683 cal BP at 68.2% probability with the duration of the Lapita phase being 129-158 years.

    “For Tongatapu, the end date is 2703–2683 cal BP at 68.2% probability with the duration of the Lapita phase being 129–158 years.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The Vavaʻu Lapita dates provide a start date of 2805-2760 cal BP, an end date of 2709-2680 cal BP, and a Lapita phase duration in Vavaʻu of 51-82 years at 68.2% probability.

    “The remainder provides a start date of 2805–2760 cal BP, an end date of 2709–2680 cal BP and a Lapita phase duration in Vavaʻu of 51–82 years at 68.2% probability.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The five dates on extinct iguana bone from Ha'apai fit well within the Bayesian overlap model, despite the absence of appropriate quality control indicators for bone dates.

    “Similarly, the five dates on extinct iguana bone from Ha'apai also fit well within the Bayesian overlap model, despite the absence of appropriate quality control indicators for bone dates.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The transition from Lapita to Polynesian Plainware at 68.2% probability occurs between 2726 and 2701 cal BP in Haʻapai with 31-53 years duration for Lapita phase settlement as defined by decorated ceramic wares.

    “In this case the transition from Lapita to Polynesian Plainware at 68.2% probability occurs between 2726 and 2701 cal BP in Haʻapai with 31–53 years duration for Lapita phase settlement as defined by decorated ceramic wares.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Lapita dates for Vavaʻu provide a 68.2% probability range of 2805-2760 cal BP for first settlement, overlapping with and statistically indistinct from the modeled first settlement date for Haʻapai.

    “Lapita dates for Vavaʻu provide a 68.2% probability range of 2805–2760 cal BP for first settlement, this overlapping with and being statistically indistinct with the modeled first settlement date for Haʻapai.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The start date at 68.2% probability for Lapita in the contiguous model is 2776-2756 cal BP, all but identical to the overlap model for Haʻapai (2772-2759 cal BP).

    “The start date at 68.2% probability for Lapita in the contiguous model is all but identical to that produced in the Lapita overlap model for Haʻapai, being 2776–2756 cal BP (contiguous) compared to 2772–2759 cal BP (overlap).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The remaining 21 samples could possibly be short-lived; they could not be identified as to species because of sample size or lack of reference material.

    “We also note that the remaining 21 samples could possibly be short-lived; they could not be identified as to species because of sample size or because of a lack of reference material.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    All radiocarbon dates in the Polynesian Plainware overlap model have agreement indices of 60% or higher, with the overall model being 84%.

    “All radiocarbon dates in the overlap model have agreement indices of 60% or higher with the overall model being 84%.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The transition occurs first in Haʻapai at 2728-2716 cal BP and then slightly later at 2703-2683 cal BP for Tongatapu and 2709-2680 cal BP for Vavaʻu.

    “The transition occurs first in Haʻapai at 2728–2716 cal BP and then slightly later at 2703–2683 cal BP for Tongatapu and 2709–2680 cal BP for Vavaʻu.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The initial run of the Lapita overlap model found three radiocarbon dates with an agreement index threshold less than 60%, two substantially so.

    “Our initial run of the Lapita model found three radiocarbon dates with an index threshold less than 60%, two (CAMS 41524, CAMS 119700) substantially so (S1 Text).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The Ha'apai contiguous model has an overall agreement index of 140% and none of the individual dates fall below the 60% threshold.

    “The Haʻapai contiguous model has an overall agreement index of 140% and none of the individual dates fall below the 60% threshold (Fig. 4, S3 Table).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The single U/Th date of 2712-2694 cal BP (2σ) (U/Th 12-36) and the short-lived species radiocarbon date of 2752-2721 cal BP (68.2%) (CAMS 119699) alternatively support a more recent settlement start for Vavaʻu.

    “The single U/Th date of 2712–2694 cal BP (2σ) (U/Th 12–36) and the short-lived species radiocarbon date of 2752–2721 cal BP (68.2%)(CAMS 119699) alternatively support a more recent settlement start.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Expectations for a lag in settlement progression are not met, since the Ha'apai and Vava'u start dates are statistically identical, overlapping at 68.2% probability.

    “Expectations for a lag in settlement progression are not met, since the Ha’apai and Vava’u start dates are statistically identical, overlapping at 68.2% probability.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    A previous PLoS ONE paper establishes a secure beginning point for the settlement of Tonga, providing high precision U/Th dates on coral artifacts for the founder colony of Nukuleka.

    “A previous PlosOne paper [9] establishes a secure beginning point for the settlement of Tonga, providing high precision U/Th dates on coral artifacts for the founder colony of Nukuleka.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [9] DV Burley, 2012, High Precision U/Th Dating of First Polynesian Settlement, PLoS ONE source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Early research in Tonga demonstrated widespread and rapid colonization throughout the archipelago.

    “Early research in Tonga demonstrated widespread and rapid colonization throughout the archipelago [18].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [18] PV Kirch, 1988, Niuatoputapu: The Prehistory of a Polynesian Chiefdom

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    The Polynesian cultural template in developed form was transferred later into East Polynesia with renewed exploration 1000-1100 cal BP.

    “This template in developed form is transferred later into East Polynesia with renewed exploration 1000–1100 cal BP [5].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [5] JM Wilmshurst, 2011, High-precision radiocarbon dating shows recent and rapid initial human colonization of East Polynesia, PNAS source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductreasoning

    The authors' approach to Bayesian analysis is conservative, using the standard boundary command rather than tau or trapezoidal boundaries.

    “Our approach to Bayesian analysis is conservative, where we use the standard boundary command rather than tau or trapezoidal boundaries.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductcitation

    Five AMS radiocarbon dates on extinct terrestrial iguana bone from a Lapita-age deposit in Haʻapai have high stratigraphic integrity and potential for dating first settlement in Haʻapai.

    “While these dates have high stratigraphic integrity and potential for dating first settlement in Haʻapai, in the absence of appropriate bone quality control indicators we cannot rule out potential error due to contamination.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [21] MS Allen, 2013, Modeling site formation dynamics: geoarchaeological, chronometric and statistical approaches to a stratified rockshelter sequence, Polynesia, Journal of Archaeological Science source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    The standard boundary command emphasizes abrupt change between phases, a circumstance the authors believe is reflected in the Tongan archaeological record.

    “The standard boundary command emphasizes abrupt change between the phases, a circumstance we believe is indeed reflected in the Tongan archaeological record.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Kirch and Green associate the transition from an initial Lapita phase to the Polynesian Plainware phase with nascent development of ancestral Polynesia and the emergence of a Polynesian cultural template.

    “Kirch and Green [10] associate the transition from an initial Lapita phase to the Polynesian Plainware phase (loss of decorated ceramics) with nascent development of ancestral Polynesia and the emergence of a Polynesian cultural template.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [10] PV Kirch, 2001, Hawaiiki, Ancestral Polynesia: An Essay in Historical Archaeology

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    Tonga was the first island group to be settled in Polynesia.

    “Tonga is positioned on the western flank of the Polynesian triangle, and it was the first island group to be settled in Polynesia [8].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [8] DV Burley, 2010, Among Polynesia’s first pots, Journal of Archaeological Science source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The Haʻapai number means that first and second generation potters on these islands produced the full Lapita ceramic assemblage as it has been excavated, and third generation potters stopped making decorated pottery altogether.

    “The Haʻapai number is exceptional; it means that first and second generation potters on these islands produced the full Lapita ceramic assemblage as it has been excavated. Third generation potters stopped making decorated pottery altogether.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Nukuleka is the only site in Tonga with western Lapita ceramics, a characteristic hypothesized for the founding colony.

    “First, Nukuleka is the only site in Tonga with western Lapita ceramics, a characteristic hypothesized for the founding colony. A suite of those ceramics also incorporates temper sands and pastes that are exotic to Tonga (8).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [8] DV Burley, 2010, Among Polynesia’s first pots, Journal of Archaeological Science source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    The Tongatapu end date and duration estimate are qualified by there being only two sites represented in the sample, and Lapita ceramic decoration may have persisted at other sites beyond this range.

    “We qualify this end date and duration estimate for Lapita in Tongatapu with acknowledgement of there being but two sites represented in our sample. There is a possibility that Lapita ceramic decoration persisted at other sites beyond this range.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    The transition to the Polynesian Plainware phase marks the onset of ancestral Polynesian society in the view of Kirch and Green.

    “This transition similarly marks the onset of ancestral Polynesian society in the view of Kirch and Green [10].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [10] PV Kirch, 2001, Hawaiiki, Ancestral Polynesia: An Essay in Historical Archaeology

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    There are only three Polynesian Plainware radiocarbon dates for Tongatapu and two for Vavaʻu, resulting in greatly skewed posterior probabilities for the start and end archaeological phase ranges and rendering the model inadequate for these island groups.

    “First, there are only three Polynesian Plainware radiocarbon dates for Tongatapu and two for Vavaʻu. This results in greatly skewed posterior probabilities for the start and end archaeological phase ranges, rendering the model inadequate for these island groups.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    The presence of Niuatoputapu volcanic glass in Lapita occupations of all three principal island groups illustrates simultaneous Lapita settlement for Niuatoputapu as well as interisland voyaging and communication along the length of the archipelago at this early time.

    “This illustrates simultaneous Lapita settlement for Niuatoputapu as well as interisland voyaging and communication along the length of the archipelago at this early time.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Burley previously suggested that Polynesian Plainware ceramics continued to be produced until 1550 cal BP.

    “Burley [15] suggested the latter situation previously, with a possibility that Polynesian Plainware ceramics continued to be produced until 1550 cal BP.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [15] DV Burley, 1998, Tongan archaeology and the Tongan past, 2850–150 BP, Journal of World Prehistory source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    The differences in transition dates are small, and the loss of decorated pottery is taken to be roughly simultaneous throughout Tonga.

    “The differences are small, and the loss of decorated pottery is taken to be roughly simultaneous throughout Tonga.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    The two dates CAMS 41524 and CAMS 119700 are clear outliers and are believed to result from in-built age in the samples.

    “The latter are clear outliers and, we believe, they are a result of in-built age in the samples.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Between 2772 and 2759 cal BP (68.2%), 70-90 years after first landfall at Nukuleka, Lapita peoples moved northward into the principal islands of Haʻapai.

    “Between 2772 and 2759 cal BP (68.2%), 70–90 years after first landfall at Nukuleka, Lapita peoples moved northward into the principal islands of Haʻapai.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: There is no evidence for a second wave of immigration elsewhere in Tonga.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Kirch extends the possibility further for Niuatoputapu, suggesting pottery loss was not a simultaneous occurrence throughout the archipelago.

    “Kirch [18] extends this even further for the far northern island of Niuatoputapu, suggesting pottery loss was not a simultaneous occurrence throughout the archipelago.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [18] PV Kirch, 1988, Niuatoputapu: The Prehistory of a Polynesian Chiefdom

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    The close comparability of the Nukuleka U/Th date and the overlap model interval illustrates the veracity of the Nukuleka U/Th date and reflects upon the degree of accuracy for the overlap model itself.

    “This illustrates not just the veracity of the Nukuleka U/Th date, but reflects upon the degree of accuracy for the overlap model itself.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    The third date WK 23708 is only marginally below acceptance (A = 57%), has good stratigraphic context, and the authors see no reason for outright rejection.

    “The third date (WK 23708) is only marginally below acceptance (A = 57%), it has good stratigraphic context, and we see no reason for out right rejection.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    For Tongatapu the Lapita phase is 6.5 to 8 generations, for Haʻapai it is 1.5 to 2.5 generations, and for Vavaʻu it is 2 to 4 generations or quite possibly less.

    “For Tongatapu it is 6.5 to 8 generations, for Haʻapai it is 1.5 to 2.5 generations, and for Vavaʻu it is 2 to 4 generations or quite possibly less.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The use of Bayesian models to identify outlier dates is well developed in the OxCal open source software and discussed extensively by Bronk Ramsay.

    “Second, the use of Bayesian models to identify outlier dates is well developed in the OxCal open source software and discussed extensively by Bronk Ramsay [27].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [27] Ramsey C Bronk, 2009, Dealing with outliers and offsets in radiocarbon dating, Radiocarbon source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Contemporaneous expansion was occurring around the Tongatapu lagoon as well as across the Nukuleka peninsula.

    “In addition to this movement, contemporaneous expansion was occurring around the Tongatapu lagoon as well as across the Nukuleka peninsula [21].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [21] MS Allen, 2013, Modeling site formation dynamics: geoarchaeological, chronometric and statistical approaches to a stratified rockshelter sequence, Polynesia, Journal of Archaeological Science source

      Not checked in the free run.

39 of 39

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    A similarly precise chronology for Polynesian expansion and associated events throughout Tonga has yet to be addressed.

    “A similarly precise chronology for Polynesian expansion and associated events throughout Tonga has yet to be addressed.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    There is no evidence for a second wave of immigration elsewhere in Tonga.

    “With Nukuleka as the founding colony, and no evidence for a second wave of immigration elsewhere in Tonga, we hypothesize a temporal lag for population infilling and growth on the island of Tongatapu prior to Lapita migration into central and northern island groups.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Start dates for the Polynesian Plainware phase will in general equate with the previously given Lapita end dates.

    “We assume start dates for this phase will in general equate with the previously given Lapita end dates.”
3 of 3

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • Haʻapai Lapita row does not add up

    Minor

    The four date categories in this Table 1 row sum to 22, not the reported 21. This also makes the category entries sum to 66 across the table, rather than the reported total of 65.

    Reported 21 · recomputed 22

  • Iguana-bone citation names a different paper

    Minor

    The text attributes the five iguana-bone dates to Steadman et al. [21], but reference 21 lists Allen and Morrison as its authors.

2 of 2

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 1

  1. AJT Jull, 2009, Golden Anniversary Edition: Celebrating 50 Years of Radiocarbon, Radiocarbon, 51, 1

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Related

Authors
Burley, D., Edinborough, K., Weisler, M., & Zhao, J.-X.
Affiliations
  • Simon Fraser University (CA)
  • University College London (GB)
  • The University of Queensland (AU)
Corresponding author
Burley, David
ORCID
Venue
PLOS ONE
Publisher
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Published
2015-03-23
Volume
10
Issue
3
Pages
e0120795
ISSN
1932-6203 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1371/journal.pone.0120795
PMC
PMC4370570
OpenAlex
W2095018573
Semantic Scholar
5fa9093f895188e42fa6ec9f6aa19a683c168af9
Cited by
78
References
31
Citations by year
2026: 1 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 1 · 2023: 5 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 11 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 13 · 2018: 14 · 2017: 7 · 2016: 8 · 2015: 4
FWCI
57.59
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • PLoS ONE (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Summit (Simon Fraser University) (submittedVersion)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
  • UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
  • Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Minerva Access (University of Melbourne) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Summit (Simon Fraser University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Funders
  • Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada
  • Australian Research Council (LE0989067)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Geography, Planning and Development › Pacific and Southeast Asian Studies
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Paleontology › Archaeology and ancient environmental studies
  • Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Archeology › Maritime and Coastal Archaeology
Keywords
Polynesian settlement, Tonga, radiocarbon chronology, Bayesian model, U-Th dating, wood charcoal, human migration, Tongatapu
MeSH terms
Pacific Island People, Archaeology, Bayes Theorem, Humans, Time Factors, Tonga, Models, Statistical, Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander, Human Migration

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