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Cited by 154Fire effects on ecosystemsClimate variability and modelsHydrology and Drought Analysis

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Understanding the variability of Australian fire weather between 1973 and 2017

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Harris, Sarah, Lucas, Chris·2019·PLOS ONE
DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0222328PMC PMC6752822
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Abstract

Australian fire weather shows spatiotemporal variability on interannual and multi-decadal time scales. We investigate the climate factors that drive this variability using 39 station-based historical time series of the seasonal 90th-percentile of the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) extending from 1973 through 2017. Using correlation analyses, we examine the relationship of these time series to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), considering both concurrent and time-lagged relationships. Additionally, longer term behaviour of the time series using linear trend analysis is discussed in the context of the climate drivers, Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and anthropogenic climate change. The results show that ENSO is the main driver for interannual variability of fire weather, as defined by FFDI in this study, for most of Australia. In general, El Niño-like conditions lead to more extreme fire weather, with this effect stronger in eastern Australia. However, there are significant regional variations to this general rule. In NSW, particularly along the central coast, negative SAM is a primary influence for elevated fire weather in late-winter and spring. In the southeast (VIC and TAS), the El Niño-like impact is exacerbated when positive IOD conditions are simultaneously observed. The spring conditions are key, and strongly influence what is observed during the following summer. On longer time scales (45 years), linear trends are upward at most stations; this trend is strongest in the southeast and during the spring. The positive trends are not driven by the trends in the climate drivers and they are not consistent with hypothesized impacts of the IPO, either before or after its late-1990s shift to the cold phase. We propose that anthropogenic climate change is the primary driver of the trend, through both higher mean temperatures and potentially through associated shifts in large-scale rainfall patterns. Variations from interannual factors are generally larger in magnitude than the trend effects observed to date.

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  • Australia and Western US extreme wildfire events were directly linked to persistent drought and record-breaking temperatures.

    “Australia and Western US extreme wildfire events, among many others, were directly linked to persistent drought and record‐breaking temperatures (Harris & Lucas, 2019; van Oldenborgh et al., 2020).”

    From Scientists' warning on extreme wildfire risks to water supply (2021) · cites this paper as Harris & Lucas, 2019

    The Discussion (Interannual variability; page not available) links higher temperatures, reduced rainfall and extended drought to extreme fire weather in Australia. The paper studies fire-weather conditions, however, not specific extreme wildfire events; our copy does not establish a direct link to record-breaking temperatures or address Western US events. (LLM, conf=0.85)

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Metadata

Authors
Harris, S., & Lucas, C.
Affiliations
  • Monash University (AU)
  • Bureau of Meteorology (AU)
Corresponding author
Harris, Sarah
ORCID
Venue
PLOS ONE
Publisher
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Published
2019-09-19
Volume
14
Issue
9
Pages
e0222328
ISSN
1932-6203 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1371/journal.pone.0222328
PMC
PMC6752822
OpenAlex
W2974598703
Cited by
154
References
1
Citations by year
2026: 9 · 2025: 13 · 2024: 22 · 2023: 23 · 2022: 32 · 2021: 38 · 2020: 15 · 2019: 2
FWCI
11.20
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • PLoS ONE (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
  • Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Funders
Monash University
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
Keywords
fire weather, McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index, ENSO, Southern Annular Mode, Indian Ocean Dipole, Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, anthropogenic climate change, interannual variability, spatiotemporal variation, Australian bushfires, rainfall patterns

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