A biogeographic model of fire regimes in Australia: current and future implications
Abstract
Aim Patterns of fire regimes across Australia exhibit biogeographic variation in response to four processes. Variations in area burned and fire frequency result from differences in the rates of ‘switching’ of biomass growth, availability to burn, fire weather and ignition. Therefore differing processes limit fire (i.e. the lowest rate of switching) in differing ecosystems. Current and future trends in fire frequency were explored on this basis. Location Case studies of forests (cool temperate to tropical) and woodlands (temperate to arid) were examined. These represent a broad range of Australian biomes and current fire regimes. Methods Information on the four processes was applied to each case study and the potential minimum length of interfire interval was predicted and compared to current trends. The potential effects of global change on the processes were then assessed and future trends in fire regimes were predicted. Results Variations in fire regimes are primarily related to fluctuations in available moisture and dominance by either woody or herbaceous plant cover. Fire in woodland communities (dry climates) is limited by growth of herbaceous fuels (biomass), whereas in forests (wet climates) limitation is by fuel moisture (availability to burn) and fire weather. Increasing dryness in woodland communities will decrease potential fire frequency, while the opposite applies in forests. In the tropics, both forms of limitation are weak due to the annual wet/dry climate. Future change may therefore be constrained. Main conclusions Increasing dryness may diminish fire activity over much of Australia (dominance of dry woodlands), though increases may occur in temperate forests. Elevated CO 2 effects may confound or reinforce these trends. The prognosis for the future fire regime in Australia is therefore uncertain.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Arid biome fires typically follow periods of above-average rainfall that produce sufficient biomass to carry fire.
“Arid biome fires typically follow periods of above-average rainfall that produce sufficient biomass to carry fire (Bradstock, 2010).”
From The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth (2011) · cites this paper as Bradstock, 2010
Fuel and weather show opposite trends along a productivity gradient: low-productivity environments usually do not produce enough fuel, whereas in high-biomass environments the fuel is usually too wet to burn.
“Fuel and weather show opposite trends along a productivity gradient: low-productivity environments usually do not produce enough fuel, whereas in high-biomass environments the fuel is usually too wet to burn.”
From Defining pyromes and global syndromes of fire regimes (2013) · cites this paper as [11]
Cites
Warming and earlier spring increase western U.S. forest wildfire activity.
Westerling, A. L., Hidalgo, H. G., Cayan, D. R., & Swetnam, T. W. (2006) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1128834 · Cited by 5,176 · see citing works
Historic Fire Regime in Southern California Shrublands
Keeley, J. E., & Fotheringham, C. J. (2001) · Conservation Biology · doi:10.1046/j.1523-1739.2001.00097.x · Cited by 242 · see citing works
Lenihan, J. M., Bachelet, D., Neilson, R. P., & Drapek, R. (2008) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-007-9362-0 · Cited by 217 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Climate Change 2022 – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
(IPCC), I. P. O. C. C. (2023) · doi:10.1017/9781009325844 · Cited by 8,473 · see citing works
The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth
Bowman, D. M. J. S., Balch, J., Artaxo, P., Bond, W. J., Cochrane, M. A., D’Antonio, C. M., DeFries, R., Johnston, F. H., Keeley, J. E., Krawchuk, M. A., et al. (2011) · Journal of Biogeography · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2699.2011.02595.x · Cited by 1,230 · see citing works
“Fire in low primary productivity environments Arid biome fires typically follow periods of above-average rainfall that produce sufficient biomass to carry fire (Bradstock, 2010).”
BackgroundLearning to coexist with wildfire
Moritz, M. A., Batllori, E., Bradstock, R. A., Gill, A. M., Handmer, J., Hessburg, P. F., Leonard, J., McCaffrey, S., Odion, D. C., Schoennagel, T., et al. (2014) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature13946 · Cited by 1,169 · see citing works
Self-citationClimate change and disruptions to global fire activity
Moritz, M. A., Parisien, M.-A., Batllori, E., Krawchuk, M. A., Van Dorn, J., Ganz, D. J., & Hayhoe, K. (2012) · Ecosphere · doi:10.1890/es11-00345.1 · Cited by 959 · see citing works
Global Emergence of Anthropogenic Climate Change in Fire Weather Indices
Abatzoglou, J. T., Williams, A. P., & Barbero, R. (2019) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2018gl080959 · Cited by 680 · see citing works
Deciphering the distribution of the savanna biome
Lehmann, C. E. R., Archibald, S. A., Hoffmann, W. A., & Bond, W. J. (2011) · New Phytologist · doi:10.1111/j.1469-8137.2011.03689.x · Cited by 523 · see citing works
Evolution of human-driven fire regimes in Africa
Archibald, S., Staver, A. C., & Levin, S. A. (2012) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1118648109 · Cited by 376 · see citing works
Global patterns in the sensitivity of burned area to fire-weather: implications for climate change
Bedia, J., Herrera, S., Gutiérrez, J. M., Benali, A., Brands, S., Mota, B., & Moreno, J. M. (2015) · Agricultural and Forest Meteorology · doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.09.002 · Cited by 276 · see citing works
Fairman, T. A., Nitschke, C. R., & Bennett, L. T. (2016) · International Journal of Wildland Fire · doi:10.1071/wf15010 · Cited by 252 · see citing works
Orbital-scale climate forcing of grassland burning in southern Africa
Daniau, A.-L., Sánchez Goñi, M. F., Martinez, P., Urrego, D. H., Bout-Roumazeilles, V., Desprat, S., & Marlon, J. R. (2013) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1214292110 · Cited by 188 · see citing works
Williams, A. P., & Abatzoglou, J. T. (2016) · Current Climate Change Reports · doi:10.1007/s40641-016-0031-0 · Cited by 173 · see citing works
Aboriginal hunting buffers climate-driven fire-size variability in Australia’s spinifex grasslands
Bliege Bird, R., Codding, B. F., Kauhanen, P. G., & Bird, D. W. (2012) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1204585109 · Cited by 156 · see citing works
Changes in evapotranspiration following wildfire in resprouting eucalypt forests
Nolan, R. H., Lane, P. N. J., Benyon, R. G., Bradstock, R. A., & Mitchell, P. J. (2014) · Ecohydrology · doi:10.1002/eco.1463 · Cited by 92 · see citing works
Self-citationSwitching on the Big Burn of 2017
Balch, J. K., Schoennagel, T., Williams, A. P., Abatzoglou, J. T., Cattau, M. E., Mietkiewicz, N. P., & St. Denis, L. A. (2018) · Fire · doi:10.3390/fire1010017 · Cited by 88 · see citing works
Bliege Bird, R., Bird, D. W., & Codding, B. F. (2016) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rstb.2015.0343 · Cited by 54 · see citing works
- Authors
- Bradstock, R. A.
- Affiliations
- University of Wollongong (AU)
- Corresponding author
- Bradstock, R. A.
- ORCID
- Bradstock, R. A.
- Venue
- Global Ecology and Biogeography
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2010-02-05
- Volume
- 19
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 145-158
- ISSN
- 1466-822X (ISSN-L)
- 1466-8238
- OpenAlex
- W1522627058
- Cited by
- 798
- References
- 3
- Citations by year
- 2026: 53 · 2025: 63 · 2024: 52 · 2023: 87 · 2022: 84 · 2021: 72 · 2020: 57 · 2019: 39 · 2018: 58 · 2017: 41 · 2016: 40 · 2015: 36 · 2014: 26 · 2013: 29 · 2012: 37
- FWCI
- 25.96
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Global Ecology and Biogeography (publishedVersion)
- Research Online (University of Wollongong) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Rangeland and Wildlife Management
- Keywords
- fire regimes, biogeographic variation, fire frequency, fuel moisture content, fire weather, ignition, biomass growth, climate change, global change, temperate forests, woodland, tropical forests, elevated CO2
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
