Dating first cases of COVID-19
Open accessAbstract
Questions persist as to the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic. Evidence is building that its origin as a zoonotic spillover occurred prior to the officially accepted timing of early December, 2019. Here we provide novel methods to date the origin of COVID-19 cases. We show that six countries had exceptionally early cases, unlikely to represent part of their main case series. The model suggests a likely timing of the first case of COVID-19 in China as November 17 (95% CI October 4). Origination dates are discussed for the first five countries outside China and each continent. Results infer that SARS-CoV-2 emerged in China in early October to mid-November, and by January, had spread globally. This suggests an earlier and more rapid timeline of spread. Our study provides new approaches for estimating dates of the arrival of infectious diseases based on small samples that can be applied to many epidemiological situations.
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The Lancet Commission on lessons for the future from the COVID-19 pandemic
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- Authors
- Roberts, D. L., Rossman, J. S., & Jarić, I.
- Affiliations
- University of Kent (GB)
- University of South Bohemia in České Budějovice (CZ)
- Corresponding author
- Roberts, David L.
- Venue
- PLOS Pathogens
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Published
- 2021-06-24
- Volume
- 17
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- e1009620
- ISSN
- 1553-7366 (ISSN-L)
- 1553-7374
- PMC
- PMC8224943
- OpenAlex
- W3176445226
- Cited by
- 106
- References
- 30
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 21 · 2023: 32 · 2022: 30 · 2021: 11 · 2020: 1
- FWCI
- 9.07
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- PLoS Pathogens (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Funders
- Czech Academy of Science
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 detection and testing
- Keywords
- COVID-19 pandemic, SARS-CoV-2, zoonotic spillover, China
- MeSH terms
- COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Animals, China, Humans, Zoonoses, History, 21st Century, Pandemics
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