US Firearm-Related Mortality: National, State, And Population Trends, 1999–2017
Abstract
Nationwide firearm-related mortality rates increased in 2015-17 after remaining relatively stable in 1999-2014. Recent increases are reflected across most states and demographics to varying degrees, which suggests a worsening epidemic of firearm mortality that is geographically and demographically broad. In both time periods the fractions of firearm deaths due to suicide and homicide remained consistent.
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Earlier analyses found that firearm-related mortality rose from 2015 to 2019, while rates from 1999 to 2014 were comparatively stable.
“Although previous analyses have shown increases in firearm-related mortality in recent years (2015 to 2019), as compared with the relatively stable rates from earlier years (1999 to 2014),2,3”
From Current Causes of Death in Children and Adolescents in the United States (2022) · cites this paper as [2]
The Abstract says firearm-related mortality rose in 2015–17 after remaining relatively stable in 1999–2014, and the Study Results quantify that increase. This paper’s analysis ends in 2017, so it does not support the claim’s extension through 2019. Page numbers were not provided in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.88)
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1 retracted
Zeoli, A. M., McCourt, A. D., Buggs, S., Frattaroli, S., Lilley, D. R., & Webster, D. W. (2017) · American Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/aje/kwx362 · Cited by 76 · see citing works
Self-citationRetractedGeneralized Additive Models: An Introduction with R
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Suicide acts in 8 states: incidence and case fatality rates by demographics and method
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Violent Death Rates: The US Compared with Other High-income OECD Countries, 2010
Grinshteyn, E. G., & Hemenway, D. (2015) · The American Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.amjmed.2015.10.025 · Cited by 416 · see citing works
The Epidemiology of Firearm Violence in the Twenty-First Century United States
Wintemute, G. J. (2014) · Annual Review of Public Health · doi:10.1146/annurev-publhealth-031914-122535 · Cited by 309 · see citing works
Association Between Youth-Focused Firearm Laws and Youth Suicides
Webster, D. W. (2004) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.292.5.594 · Cited by 210 · see citing works
Zeoli, A. M., McCourt, A. D., Buggs, S., Frattaroli, S., Lilley, D. R., & Webster, D. W. (2018) · American Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/aje/kwy174 · Cited by 117 · see citing works
Self-citationGender Differences in Patterns and Trends in U.S. Homicide, 1976–2015
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Research works printed but not linked: 1
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Current Causes of Death in Children and Adolescents in the United States
Goldstick, J. E., Cunningham, R. M., & Carter, P. M. (2022) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmc2201761 · Cited by 722 · see citing works
Self-citationEpidemiologic trends in fatal and nonfatal firearm injuries in the US, 2009-2017.
Kaufman, E. J., Wiebe, D. J., Xiong, R. A., Morrison, C. N., Seamon, M. J., & Delgado, M. K. (2021) · JAMA Internal Medicine · doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2020.6696 · Cited by 285 · see citing works
Current Epidemiological Trends in Firearm Mortality in the United States
Goldstick, J. E., Carter, P. M., & Cunningham, R. M. (2021) · JAMA Psychiatry · doi:10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2020.2986 · Cited by 73 · see citing works
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- Authors
- Goldstick, J. E., Zeoli, A., Mair, C., & Cunningham, R. M.
- Affiliations
- University of Michigan (US)
- Michigan State University (US)
- University of Pittsburgh (US)
- Venue
- Health Affairs
- Publisher
- Health Affairs Publishing, LLC
- Published
- 2019-10-01
- Volume
- 38
- Issue
- 10
- Pages
- 1646-1652
- ISSN
- 0278-2715 (ISSN-L)
- 1544-5208
- PMC
- PMC7028356
- OpenAlex
- W2978861194
- Cited by
- 53
- References
- 10
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 13 · 2023: 9 · 2022: 17 · 2021: 4 · 2020: 3
- FWCI
- 5.85
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Health Affairs (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (R24HD087149)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Health › Gun Ownership and Violence Research
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Homicide, Infanticide, and Child Abuse
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Suicide and Self-Harm Studies
- Keywords
- firearm deaths, suicide, homicide, mortality trends, state-level variation, demographic disparities, public health epidemic, United States
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Age Factors, Female, Firearms, Homicide, Humans, Male, Mortality, Suicide, United States, Wounds, Gunshot
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