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The appropriateness of asymmetry tests for publication bias in meta-analyses: a large survey
Open accessAbstract
BACKGROUND: Statistical tests for funnel-plot asymmetry are common in meta-analyses. Inappropriate application can generate misleading inferences about publication bias. We aimed to measure, in a survey of meta-analyses, how frequently the application of these tests would be not meaningful or inappropriate. METHODS: We evaluated all meta-analyses of binary outcomes with é 3 studies in the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (2003, issue 2). A separate, restricted analysis was confined to the largest meta-analysis in each of the review articles. In each meta-analysis, we assessed whether criteria to apply asymmetry tests were met: no significant heterogeneity, I2 < 50%, é 10 studies (with statistically significant results in at least 1) and ratio of the maximal to minimal variance across studies > 4. We performed a correlation and 2 regression asymmetry tests and evaluated their concordance. Finally, we sampled 60 meta-analyses from print journals in 2005 that cited use of the standard regression test. RESULTS: A total of 366 of 6873 (5%) and 98 of 846 meta-analyses (12%) in the wider and restricted Cochrane data set, respectively, would have qualified for use of asymmetry tests. Asymmetry test results were significant in 7%-18% of the meta-analyses. Concordance between the 3 tests was modest (estimated k 0.33-0.66). Of the 60 journal meta-analyses, 7 (12%) would qualify for asymmetry tests; all 11 claims for identification of publication bias were made in the face of large and significant heterogeneity. INTERPRETATION: Statistical conditions for employing asymmetry tests for publication bias are absent from most meta-analyses; yet, in medical journals these tests are performed often and interpreted erroneously.
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“However, publication bias tests might be problematic for IN-OT studies due to small sample sizes resulting in insufficient statistical power and sample size variability for the tests to yield reliable and significant results (26).”
From Statistical and Methodological Considerations for the Interpretation of Intranasal Oxytocin Studies (2016) · cites this paper as [26]
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIn the citing paper
“The small number of studies and presence of significant heterogeneity precluded formal testing for publication bias[35].”
From Daily Sitting Time and All-Cause Mortality: A Meta-Analysis (2013) · cites this paper as [35]
In the citing paper
“Of 60 meta-analyses in 24 articles published in 2005 in which formal assessments were reported, most were based on fewer than ten studies; most displayed statistically significant heterogeneity; and many reviewers misinterpreted the results of the tests employed [123].”
From The PRISMA Statement for Reporting Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses of Studies That Evaluate Health Care Interventions: Explanation and Elaboration (2009) · cites this paper as [123]
In the citing paper
“Although evidence that smaller studies had larger estimated effects than large ones may suggest the possibility that the available evidence is biased, misinterpretation of such data is common [123].”
From The PRISMA Statement for Reporting Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses of Studies That Evaluate Health Care Interventions: Explanation and Elaboration (2009) · cites this paper as [123]
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Burton, B. K., Hjorthøj, C. R., Jepsen, J. R. M., Thorup, A. A. E., Nordentoft, M., & Plessen, K. J. (2015) · Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry · doi:10.1111/jcpp.12479 · Cited by 68
“As no large and significant between-study heterogeneity was identified, we applied tests to evaluate potential publication bias (Ioannidis & Trikalinos, 2007).”
MethodInfluentialBlomberg, B. A., Moghbel, M. C., Saboury, B., Stanley, C. A., & Alavi, A. A. (2012) · Molecular Imaging and Biology · doi:10.1007/s11307-012-0572-0 · Cited by 70
“Application among metaanalysis with small number of studies (nG10) yields low statistical power [46].”
BackgroundJafari, T., Rostampour, N., Fallah, A. A., & Hesami, A. (2017) · Journal of Trace Elements in Medicine and Biology · doi:10.1016/j.jtemb.2017.09.002 · Cited by 68
“Publication bias was evaluated by visual inspection of Begg’s funnel plot asymmetry and Egger's test [23,24].”
MethodBlood Transfusion After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention and Risk of Subsequent Adverse Outcomes
Kwok, C. S., Sherwood, M. W., Watson, S. M., Nasir, S. B., Sperrin, M., Nolan, J., Kinnaird, T. D., Kiatchoosakun, S., Ludman, P., de Belder, M., et al. (2015) · JACC: Cardiovascular Interventions · doi:10.1016/j.jcin.2014.09.026 · Cited by 68
“Publication bias was assessed using funnel plots when there were >10 studies available in the meta-analysis and there was no evidence of substantial statistical heterogeneity (12).”
MethodThe Effects of Extensive Reading on English Vocabulary Learning: A Meta-analysis
Liu, J., & Zhang, J. (2018) · English Language Teaching · doi:10.5539/elt.v11n6p1 · Cited by 67
Sugar rush or sugar crash? A meta-analysis of carbohydrate effects on mood
Mantantzis, K., Schlaghecken, F., Sünram-Lea, S. I., & Maylor, E. A. (2019) · Neuroscience & Biobehavioral Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.neubiorev.2019.03.016 · Cited by 67
Prepectoral Versus Subpectoral Implant-Based Breast Reconstruction
Li, Y., Xu, G., Yu, N., Huang, J., & Long, X. (2020) · Annals of Plastic Surgery · doi:10.1097/sap.0000000000002190 · Cited by 67
Jafari, T., Feizi, A., Askari, G., & Fallah, A. A. (2014) · Clinical Nutrition · doi:10.1016/j.clnu.2014.05.008 · Cited by 69
“The funnel plot, Begg and Mazumdar rank correlation test and Egger test were employed to assess the publication bias [29].”
MethodMazuquin, B., Wright, A. C., Russell, S., Monga, P., Selfe, J., & Richards, J. (2016) · British Journal of Sports Medicine · doi:10.1136/bjsports-2016-095963 · Cited by 68
“9”
Vasopressin for cardiac arrest: Meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials
Mentzelopoulos, S. D., Zakynthinos, S. G., Siempos, I. Ι., Malachias, S., Ulmer, H., & Wenzel, V. (2011) · Resuscitation · doi:10.1016/j.resuscitation.2011.07.015 · Cited by 66
Cronström, A., Creaby, M. W., & Ageberg, E. (2020) · BMC Musculoskeletal Disorders · doi:10.1186/s12891-020-03552-3 · Cited by 74
Child physical abuse risk factors: A systematic review and a meta-analysis
Milner, J. S., Crouch, J. L., McCarthy, R. J., Ammar, J., Dominguez-Martinez, R., Thomas, C. L., & Jensen, A. P. (2022) · Aggression and Violent Behavior · doi:10.1016/j.avb.2022.101778 · Cited by 75
Chen, S., Roffey, D. M., Dion, C.-A. B., Arab, A., & Wai, E. K. (2015) · Clinical Journal of Pain · doi:10.1097/ajp.0000000000000218 · Cited by 68
Buawangpong, N., Teekachunhatean, S., & Koonrungsesomboon, N. (2020) · Pharmacology Research & Perspectives · doi:10.1002/prp2.644 · Cited by 66
Qorri, A., Gashi, S., & Krasławski, A. (2020) · Sustainable Development · doi:10.1002/sd.2140 · Cited by 65
Food insecurity and hypertension: A systematic review and meta-analysis
Beltrán, S., Pharel, M., Montgomery, C. T., López-Hinojosa, I. J., Arenas, D. J., & DeLisser, H. M. (2020) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0241628 · Cited by 65
“As for publication bias, although no funnel asymmetry test was significant, it is important to note that the statistical power of these tests is small for the number of reviewed studies [27, 77, 78].”
BackgroundAndrew, B. J., Mullan, B. A., de Wit, J. B. F., Monds, L. A., Todd, J., & Kothe, E. J. (2016) · AIDS and Behavior · doi:10.1007/s10461-016-1314-0 · Cited by 73
“Unfortunately, upon completing these analyses, the substantial heterogeneity observed in each estimated relationship meant that formal statistical testing of publication bias could not be performed [66, 67].”
BackgroundBatchelor, R., Kumar, R., Gilmartin‐Thomas, J., Hopper, I., Kemp, W. W., & Liew, D. (2018) · Alimentary Pharmacology & Therapeutics · doi:10.1111/apt.14955 · Cited by 65
Gu, L., Khadaroo, P. A., Chen, L., Li, X., Zhu, H., Zhong, X., Pan, J., & Chen, M. (2019) · Journal of Gastrointestinal Surgery · doi:10.1007/s11605-019-04227-8 · Cited by 64
“05 was considered statistically significant.(16)”
Childhood residential mobility and health outcomes: A meta-analysis
Şimşek, M., Costa, R., & de Valk, H. A. G. (2021) · Health & Place · doi:10.1016/j.healthplace.2021.102650 · Cited by 72
Burdon, C. A., Johnson, N. A., Chapman, P., & O'Connor, H. T. (2012) · International Journal of Sport Nutrition and Exercise Metabolism · doi:10.1123/ijsnem.22.3.199 · Cited by 65
“Publication bias was not assessed to avoid inappropriate interpretation based on analysis of too few studies (Ioannidis & Trikalinos, 2007).”
MethodVerschuère, B., Köbis, N., Bereby‐Meyer, Y., Rand, D. G., & Shalvi, S. (2018) · Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.jarmac.2018.04.005 · Cited by 63
“Finding substantial lie–truth differences in RTs, our findings support the cognitive theory of lying But our findings also show that, for the well-established RT index of lying, imposing additional load may in fact hinder truth-telling, to the extent that the differences between lying and…”
ResultRanda, H., Todberg, T., Skov, L., Larsen, L. P. S., & Zachariae, R. H. (2016) · Acta Dermato Venereologica · doi:10.2340/00015555-2600 · Cited by 63
Primer: strengths and weaknesses of meta-analysis
Finckh, A., & Tramèr, M. R. (2008) · Nature Clinical Practice Rheumatology · doi:10.1038/ncprheum0732 · Cited by 62
“Unfortunately, these tests are only exploratory and often misused to make inappropriately strong statements about the presence or not of publication bias in meta-analyses”
BackgroundTurner, L., Boutron, I., Hróbjartsson, A., Altman, D. G., & Moher, D. (2013) · Systematic Reviews · doi:10.1186/2046-4053-2-79 · Cited by 66
“An array of methods to test for publication bias and additional recommendations are now available [38,43,67-76], many of which have been evaluated [77-80].”
Chang, J., Liu, X., Wang, S., Zhang, Z., Wu, Z., Zhang, X., & Li, J. (2014) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0105524 · Cited by 61
“Also, it is recommended that tests for funnel plot asymmetry should be used only when at least 10 studies are included in the meta-analysis [39].”
MethodKwok, C. S., Aslam, S., Kontopantelis, E., Myint, P. K., Zaman, M., Buchan, I. E., Loke, Y. K., & Mamas, M. A. (2015) · International Journal of Clinical Practice · doi:10.1111/ijcp.12646 · Cited by 61
Tse, F., Yuan, Y., Bukhari, M. A., Leontiadis, G. I., Moayyedi, P., & Barkun, A. N. (2016) · Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews · doi:10.1002/14651858.cd010571.pub2 · Cited by 60
Association of the ACTN3 R577X (rs1815739) polymorphism with elite power sports: A meta-analysis
Tharabenjasin, P., Pabalan, N., & Jarjanazi, H. (2019) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0217390 · Cited by 60
Metadata
- Authors
- Ioannidis, J. P. A., & Trikalinos, T. A.
- Affiliations
- Tufts University (US)
- Venue
- Canadian Medical Association Journal
- Publisher
- CMA Joule Inc.
- Published
- 2007-04-10
- Volume
- 176
- Issue
- 8
- Pages
- 1091-1096
- ISSN
- 0820-3946 (ISSN-L)
- 1488-2329
- PMC
- PMC1839799
- OpenAlex
- W2164093802
- Cited by
- 1,052
- References
- 40
- Citations by year
- 2026: 49 · 2025: 48 · 2024: 64 · 2023: 49 · 2022: 81 · 2021: 73 · 2020: 83 · 2019: 81 · 2018: 73 · 2017: 55 · 2016: 62 · 2015: 64 · 2014: 68 · 2013: 38 · 2012: 39
- FWCI
- 31.66
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Canadian Medical Association Journal (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Epidemiology
- Social Sciences › Library and Information Sciences › scientometrics and bibliometrics research
- Keywords
- publication bias, funnel plot asymmetry, meta-analysis, heterogeneity, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, binary outcomes, test concordance
- MeSH terms
- Data Interpretation, Statistical, Humans, Periodicals as Topic, Meta-Analysis as Topic, Databases, Bibliographic, Publication Bias
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