Cited by 345Neuroendocrine regulation and behaviorOlfactory and Sensory Function StudiesPsychology Research and Bibliometrics

Statistical and Methodological Considerations for the Interpretation of Intranasal Oxytocin Studies

Open access
Walum, Hasse, Waldman, Irwin D., Young, Larry J.·2016·Biological Psychiatry

Abstract

Over the last decade, oxytocin (OT) has received focus in numerous studies associating intranasal administration of this peptide with various aspects of human social behavior. These studies in humans are inspired by animal research, especially in rodents, showing that central manipulations of the OT system affect behavioral phenotypes related to social cognition, including parental behavior, social bonding, and individual recognition. Taken together, these studies in humans appear to provide compelling, but sometimes bewildering, evidence for the role of OT in influencing a vast array of complex social cognitive processes in humans. In this article, we investigate to what extent the human intranasal OT literature lends support to the hypothesis that intranasal OT consistently influences a wide spectrum of social behavior in humans. We do this by considering statistical features of studies within this field, including factors like statistical power, prestudy odds, and bias. Our conclusion is that intranasal OT studies are generally underpowered and that there is a high probability that most of the published intranasal OT findings do not represent true effects. Thus, the remarkable reports that intranasal OT influences a large number of human social behaviors should be viewed with healthy skepticism, and we make recommendations to improve the reliability of human OT studies in the future.

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

This paper argues that human intranasal oxytocin (IN-OT) studies are generally underpowered and that many published positive findings likely do not represent true effects. The authors use meta-analytic effect sizes, power calculations, positive predictive value estimates, and a survey of 2014 IN-OT papers to recommend larger, more transparent, and better-replicated studies.

Key findings

  • Across three published meta-analyses, the weighted mean effect size for healthy subjects was d=0.28 with median N=49, yielding average statistical power of 16%; clinical trials had median N=26, d=0.32, and power of 12%. To achieve 80% power, 352 healthy subjects or 310 clinical-trial participants would be needed.
  • Even with the largest observed effect size (d=0.48) and largest sample size in the meta-analyses (N=112), power was no higher than 70%; sample sizes of 49 and 26 could reliably detect only large effects (d=0.81 to d=1.14) at 80% power.
  • If pre-study odds R=0.10 and power is 16%, the positive predictive value (PPV) was no higher than 24%; with 10 independent tests and only one reported, PPV dropped to 17%.
  • In 33 IN-OT papers from 2014, 29 (88%) reported at least one positive finding, but only 62 of 357 tested effects (17%) were significant; only 3 papers mentioned multiple-comparison correction, and the average number of tests was 11. Vole studies using central OT/vasopressin manipulation had a summarized effect size of d=0.76 (30 experiments, 668 individuals), though median n=22 and power=0.43.

Methods

  • Reanalyzed data from three published meta-analyses of IN-OT effects, calculating sample-size-weighted average effect sizes for healthy subjects and clinical trials, then estimating power with G*Power and R simulations.
  • Examined 33 behavioral IN-OT papers published in 2014, recording positive findings, total tested effects, multiple-comparison correction, and number of tests, as described in supplemental information.
  • Estimated effect sizes from 30 independent vole partner-preference experiments (668 individuals total) to compare central OT/vasopressin manipulation with intranasal administration.

Limitations

  • The authors state that the true pre-study odds (R) for IN-OT studies cannot be determined with much certainty, and their PPV estimates assume no influence of bias, so actual PPV could be considerably lower.
  • They note that publication-bias tests in the IN-OT meta-analyses gave mixed results and may be unreliable because small sample sizes provide insufficient power and sample-size variability; they also state they cannot assess the independence of tests in the 2014 survey.
  • The vole effect-size analysis was underpowered (median n=22, 1−β=0.43), and the larger autism effect size (d=0.57) came from only four studies and should be interpreted cautiously. Evident from the text: the 2014 paper survey is treated as representative only conditionally, and the field-wide conclusions depend on that assumption.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1016/j.biopsych.2015.06.016

Cites

49 of 49 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

42 of 62 cited sources checked · 26 supported · 1 flagged · accuracy not yet measured

  • Premisecitation
    § Introduction

    These meta-analyses yielded summarized effect sizes ranging from d=0.21 to d=0.48.

    “These studies yielded summarized effect sizes ranging from d=0.21 to d=0.48.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim3 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [9] Van IJzendoorn, 2012, A sniff of trust: Meta-analysis of the effects of intranasal oxytocin administration on face recognition, trust to in-group, and trust to out-group, Psychoneuroendocrinology source
    • cites [10] Shahrestani, 2013, The impact of a single administration of intranasal oxytocin on the recognition of basic emotions in humans: A meta-analysis, Neuropsychopharmacology source

      The Moderation by Emotion Type section reports an effect size of Hedges’ g=0.210 for angry faces, close to the stated lower bound. It does not establish 0.48 as the upper bound: the same section reports g=0.591 for fearful faces, and the paper reports Hedges’ g rather than Cohen’s d (Statistical Analyses). No page numbers are available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.85)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [11] Bakermans-Kranenburg, 2013, Sniffing around oxytocin: Review and meta-analyses of trials in healthy and clinical groups with implications for pharmacotherapy, Transl Psychiatry source

      The Meta-analysis section reports a combined effect size of d=0.32 for 19 clinical experiments and d=0.57 for the autism-spectrum subset. The latter exceeds the claimed upper bound of d=0.48; the reported range is therefore not supported by this paper. Page numbers are not available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.85)

      Checked by a reasoning model — may be wrong.

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Premisecitation
    § Introduction

    Three meta-analyses of the effects of intranasal oxytocin on human behavior have been published to date.

    “To date three meta-analyses of the effects of IN-OT on human behavior have been published.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim3 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [9] Van IJzendoorn, 2012, A sniff of trust: Meta-analysis of the effects of intranasal oxytocin administration on face recognition, trust to in-group, and trust to out-group, Psychoneuroendocrinology source

      The Method section (page unavailable) says this paper reports three meta-analyses of intranasal oxytocin’s effects on face recognition, in-group trust, and out-group trust. It does not establish that these were the only three meta-analyses published to date; the three analyses are reported in this one paper. (LLM, conf=0.82)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [10] Shahrestani, 2013, The impact of a single administration of intranasal oxytocin on the recognition of basic emotions in humans: A meta-analysis, Neuropsychopharmacology source

      The title and Criteria for Considering Studies for this Review identify this paper as a meta-analysis of intranasal oxytocin’s effects on human emotion recognition. The Introduction also discusses another oxytocin meta-analysis. Our copy does not establish that exactly three meta-analyses of intranasal oxytocin’s effects on human behavior had been published to date. (LLM, conf=0.84)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [11] Bakermans-Kranenburg, 2013, Sniffing around oxytocin: Review and meta-analyses of trials in healthy and clinical groups with implications for pharmacotherapy, Transl Psychiatry source
  • Interpretationcitation
    § Introduction

    The pre-study odds of studies investigating the effect of intranasal oxytocin are low, primarily due to limitations in deep brain penetration of oxytocin when administered intranasally.

    “Although the idea that manipulating OT in humans could influence social behavior is supported by rigorous animal research, we argue that the pre-study odds of studies investigating the effect of IN-OT still would be low, primarily due to limitations in deep brain penetration of OT when administered intranasally (2, 19).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [2] Churchland, 2012, Modulating social behavior with oxytocin: How does it work? What does it mean?, Horm Behav source

      Section 2B questions whether intranasal oxytocin reaches brain receptor sites in sufficient amounts and notes its poor penetration across the blood–brain barrier. It does not establish that intranasal delivery has limited deep-brain penetration or assess the pre-study odds of such studies; those are stronger claims than the paper makes. (LLM, conf=0.84)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [19] Leng, 2016, Intranasal oxytocin: Myths and delusions, Biol Psychiatry source
  • Premisecitation
    § Introduction

    Adopting a relatively conservative alpha level of 5% does not largely accomplish avoiding false positives.

    “As Ioannidis (16) showed by statistical modeling this is not the case.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [16] Ioannidis, 2005, Why most published research findings are false, PLoS Med source
  • Premisecitation
    § Introduction

    Publication bias tests might be problematic for intranasal oxytocin studies due to small sample sizes resulting in insufficient statistical power and sample size variability for the tests to yield reliable and significant results.

    “However, publication bias tests might be problematic for IN-OT studies due to small sample sizes resulting in insufficient statistical power and sample size variability for the tests to yield reliable and significant results (26).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [26] Ioannidis, 2007, The appropriateness of asymmetry tests for publication bias in meta-analyses: A large survey, CMAJ source

      The Abstract says asymmetry tests have low power when a meta-analysis includes few studies and are not meaningful when studies have similar precision. The Interpretation likewise identifies too few studies and too little difference between study sizes as problems. The paper does not examine intranasal oxytocin studies or establish that their sample sizes have these characteristics; it also distinguishes few studies from small samples within studies. (LLM, conf=0.84)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 25
  • May combine two claims. 16
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 1
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § Introduction

    Van IJzendoorn and Bakersmans-Kranenburg investigated the effect of intranasal oxytocin on facial emotion recognition, trust to in-group, and trust to out-group.

    “Van IJzendoorn and Bakersmans-Kranenburg investigated the effect of IN-OT on facial emotion recognition (13 effect sizes, total N = 408), trust to in-group (8 effect sizes, total N = 317) and trust to out-group (10 effect sizes, total N = 505) (9).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [9] Van IJzendoorn, 2012, A sniff of trust: Meta-analysis of the effects of intranasal oxytocin administration on face recognition, trust to in-group, and trust to out-group, Psychoneuroendocrinology source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § Introduction

    Oxytocin has a role in regulating complex social behavior, including parental care, social bonding and social cognition in general.

    “More recently, attention has turned to its role in regulating complex social behavior, including parental care, social bonding and social cognition in general (1–6).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim4 of 6 sources checked
    • cites [1] Bartz, 2011, Social effects of oxytocin in humans: Context and person matter, Trends Cogn Sci source
    • cites [2] Churchland, 2012, Modulating social behavior with oxytocin: How does it work? What does it mean?, Horm Behav source
    • cites [3] Evans, 2014, Intranasal oxytocin effects on social cognition: A critique, Brain Res source
    • cites [4] Guastella, 2013, Recommendations for the standardisation of oxytocin nasal administration and guidelines for its reporting in human research, Psychoneuroendocrinology source
    • cites [5] Ross, 2009, Oxytocin and the neural mechanisms regulating social cognition and affiliative behavior, Front Neuroendocrin source
    • cites [6] Young, 2015, Oxytocin, social cognition and psychiatry, Neuropsychopharmacology source
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § Introduction

    The pre-study odds (R) for phase III clinical trials is approximately 1, meaning that in about 50% of the time the drugs that make it to these trials are more effective than the current gold standard treatment.

    “Data suggest that the R for phase III clinical trials is approximately 1, meaning that in about 50% of the time the drugs that make it to these trials are more effective than the current “gold standard” treatment (18).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [18] Djulbegovic, 2013, Medical research: Trial unpredictability yields predictable therapy gains, Nature source
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation
    § Introduction

    Bakermans-Kranenburg and Van IJzendoorn studied the effect of intranasal oxytocin in clinical trials.

    “Bakermans-Kranenburg and Van IJzendoorn studied the effect of IN-OT in clinical trials (19 effect sizes, total N=304)(11).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [11] Bakermans-Kranenburg, 2013, Sniffing around oxytocin: Review and meta-analyses of trials in healthy and clinical groups with implications for pharmacotherapy, Transl Psychiatry source
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation
    § Introduction

    Intranasal oxytocin administration influences various aspects of human social behavior.

    “Much of the excitement regarding OT over the past decade has been driven by a remarkable proliferation of research suggesting that intranasal OT (IN-OT) administration influences various aspects of human social behavior (7).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [7] Young, 2012, Editorial comment: Oxytocin, vasopressin and social behavior, Horm Behav source
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation
    § Introduction

    Shahrestani et al. conducted a meta-analysis of studies examining the effect of oxytocin on recognition of basic emotions.

    “Shahrestani et al. conducted a meta-analysis of studies examining the effect of OT on recognition of basic emotions (7 effect sizes, total N = 381)(10).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [10] Shahrestani, 2013, The impact of a single administration of intranasal oxytocin on the recognition of basic emotions in humans: A meta-analysis, Neuropsychopharmacology source

      The Introduction says the meta-analysis examined oxytocin’s effect on recognition of basic facial emotions, and Study Characteristics reports seven independent studies comprising 381 participants. The citing sentence calls these “7 effect sizes,” but the source says seven studies; its Results report a heterogeneity statistic with 13 degrees of freedom, so the effect-size count is not supported. (LLM, conf=0.86)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § Introduction

    The average power of studies in neuroscience in general is 21%.

    “but not very different from studies in neuroscience in general (average power = 21%) (14).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [14] Button, 2013, Power failure: Why small sample size undermines the reliability of neuroscience, Nat Rev Neurosci source

      The Results section reports 21% as the median statistical power across the studies analyzed, not the arithmetic average. The paper discusses this estimate in relation to neuroscience generally, but the cited figure is mislabeled as an average. (LLM, conf=0.88)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation
    § Introduction

    More than 80% of scientific publications in various sciences report positive results.

    “which is in line with a study by Fanelli showing that more than 80% of scientific publications in various sciences report positive results (22).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [22] Fanelli, 2010, “Positive” results increase down the Hierarchy of the Sciences, PloS One source

      The Results report that 2045 of 2434 papers (84%) across 20 disciplines gave positive or partial support for a tested hypothesis. But the study included only papers that explicitly tested a hypothesis, and the Discussion notes its focus on English-language scientific journals; it does not establish that more than 80% of scientific publications generally report positive results. (LLM, conf=0.85)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § Introduction

    Melanocortin receptor agonists mimic the prosocial effects of OT in a mouse model of autism.

    “mimic the prosocial effects of OT in a mouse model of autism (41)”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [41] Penagarikano, 2015, Exogenous and evoked oxytocin restores social behavior in the Cntnap2 mouse model of autism, Sci Transl Med source
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § Introduction

    The meta-analyses mentioned in this paper all tested for evidence of publication bias in the intranasal oxytocin literature, with mixed results.

    “The meta-analyses mentioned in this paper all tested for evidence of publication bias in the IN-OT literature, with mixed results (9–11).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim3 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [9] Van IJzendoorn, 2012, A sniff of trust: Meta-analysis of the effects of intranasal oxytocin administration on face recognition, trust to in-group, and trust to out-group, Psychoneuroendocrinology source
    • cites [10] Shahrestani, 2013, The impact of a single administration of intranasal oxytocin on the recognition of basic emotions in humans: A meta-analysis, Neuropsychopharmacology source
    • cites [11] Bakermans-Kranenburg, 2013, Sniffing around oxytocin: Review and meta-analyses of trials in healthy and clinical groups with implications for pharmacotherapy, Transl Psychiatry source

      The Meta-analysis section reports using trim-and-fill to assess potential publication bias in the clinical-trial meta-analysis and finding no bias against small studies with small effects. The Meta-analytic evidence section also describes analyses of healthy participants, but does not report publication-bias tests for them. This source therefore supports that a bias test was conducted, not that all the meta-analyses mentioned were tested or that their bias results were mixed. (LLM, conf=0.83)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductcitation
    § Introduction

    Only four studies of autism were included in the meta-analysis and should therefore be interpreted cautiously.

    “Only four studies of autism were included in the analysis and should therefore be interpreted cautiously.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [11] Bakermans-Kranenburg, 2013, Sniffing around oxytocin: Review and meta-analyses of trials in healthy and clinical groups with implications for pharmacotherapy, Transl Psychiatry source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationcitation
    § Introduction

    These alternate means of manipulating the OT system, if used in humans, could potentially increase the effect size to levels similar to central injections of OT.

    “These alternate means of manipulating the OT system, if used in humans, could potentially increase the effect size to levels similar to central injections of OT (36).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [36] Young, 2015, Can oxytocin treat autism?, Science source

      In “Can oxytocin treat autism?” (page unavailable), Young suggests that alternative approaches to the oxytocin system may overcome limitations of current therapies and improve social cognition; a DREADD approach might one day be feasible in humans. The paper does not discuss effect sizes or predict effects comparable to central oxytocin injections. (LLM, conf=0.86)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationcitation
    § Introduction

    Understanding the precise neural and cognitive effects of OT manipulation on the processing of social information can be used to increase the efficacy of OT-based therapies to improve social function in psychiatric disorders.

    “Understanding the precise neural and cognitive effects of OT manipulation on the processing of social information can be used to increase the efficacy of OT-based therapies to improve social function in psychiatric disorders (36).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [36] Young, 2015, Can oxytocin treat autism?, Science source
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § Introduction

    In the meta-analysis by Bakermans-Kranenburg and Van IJzendoorn, IN-OT seems to have the largest effect size in individuals with autism, with d=0.57 for autism compared to d=0.32 for all clinical studies.

    “Finally, in the meta-analysis by Bakermans-Kranenburg and Van IJzendoorn (11) IN-OT seems to have the largest effect size in individuals with autism. Only four studies of autism were included in the analysis and should therefore be interpreted cautiously. However, the larger effect size for autism (d=0.57) compared to all clinical studies (d=0.32)”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [11] Bakermans-Kranenburg, 2013, Sniffing around oxytocin: Review and meta-analyses of trials in healthy and clinical groups with implications for pharmacotherapy, Transl Psychiatry source

      The Meta-analysis reports d=0.57 for four studies grouped under autism spectrum disorder, compared with d=0.32 across 19 clinical experiments, and cautions that the syndrome-specific evidence is small. But the autism grouping includes Prader–Willi syndrome, and the paper’s Autism spectrum disorders section describes an intravenous OT trial; these figures are not presented as estimates exclusively for intranasal OT in individuals with autism. (LLM, conf=0.85)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § Introduction

    In cases where the sample size is below 40 individuals the inflation is very large, but even when N=100, the overestimation of the effect is by no means negligible.

    “In cases where the sample size is below 40 individuals the inflation is very large, but even when N=100, the overestimation of the effect is by no means negligible.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Findingnone given
    § Introduction

    IN-OT studies are underpowered.

    “since the IN-OT studies are underpowered”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § Introduction

    Out of the 33 intranasal oxytocin papers investigated, only 3 mention that any correction for multiple comparisons was performed, and in these cases it is unclear how corrections were applied.

    “For example, out of the 33 IN-OT papers we investigated, only 3 mention that any correction for multiple comparisons was performed, and in these cases it is unclear how corrections were applied.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingown data
    § Introduction

    Effect sizes were estimated for 30 independent vole experiments comprising 668 individuals in total, weighted by sample size, yielding a summarized effect size of d = 0.76 for behavioral effects of centrally manipulating the OT/vasopressin systems.

    “Effect sizes were estimated for 30 independent experiments comprising 668 individuals in total, weighted by the sample size of the individual experiments. This yielded a summarized effect size of d = 0.76.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § Introduction

    Large-scale phase III clinical trials represent the case when the value of pre-study odds (R) will be the highest.

    “Button et al. have argued that large-scale phase III clinical trials represent the case when the value of R will be the highest (17).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [17] Button, 2013, Empirical evidence for low reproducibility indicates low pre-study odds, Nat Rev Neurosci source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data
    § Introduction

    Power calculations were verified using simulation in R, which yielded very similar results compared to G*Power.

    “For verification, power calculations were also performed using simulation in R (3.1.1) (13) (Figure 1), and yielded very similar results compared to G*Power.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [13] Core Team, 2014

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § Introduction

    The publication culture promotes novel, and often surprising, findings and this motivates researchers to postulate improbable hypotheses.

    “Also, the publication culture promotes novel, and often surprising, findings and this will motivate researchers to postulate improbable hypotheses (20).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [20] Bakker, 2012, The rules of the game called psychological science, Perspect Psychol Sci source
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § Introduction

    Use of multiple analyses on the same data set and selective reports of statistical methods used, or insufficient correction for multiple comparisons, can cause inflation in effects.

    “Use of multiple analyses on the same data set and selective reports of statistical methods used, or insufficient correction for multiple comparisons, can cause inflation in effects (29).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [29] Nieuwenhuis, 2011, Erroneous analyses of interactions in neuroscience: A problem of significance, Nat Neurosci source
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § Introduction

    The problem with IN-OT research is not the hypothesis that OT could be a modulator of human behavior, but the certainty that any particular reported finding represents a true effect.

    “The problem here is not the underlying hypothesis that OT could be a modulator of human behavior, it is in the certainty in which we can have faith that any particular reported finding represents a true effect.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § Introduction

    Replicating findings in samples of the same size as the original underpowered IN-OT study will lead to many unsuccessful replication attempts due to insufficient power, undermining the original true finding.

    “Also, since the IN-OT studies are underpowered it does not make sense to try to replicate findings in samples of the same size as the original study. This will lead to many unsuccessful replication attempts due to insufficient power, undermining the original true finding.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given
    § Introduction

    Underpowered studies are prone to other types of biases, such as the use of questionable research practices.

    “Also, underpowered studies are prone to other types of biases, such as the use of questionable research practices.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § Introduction

    Such questionable practices are common in psychology and likely pervasive in other disciplines.

    “Such questionable practices are common in psychology (28), and likely pervasive in other disciplines as well.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [28] John, 2012, Measuring the prevalence of questionable research practices with incentives for truth telling, Psychol Sci source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given
    § Introduction

    The results of the calculations for human IN-OT studies would not differ for other species given intranasal OT, like non-human primates, as long as the dose is adjusted for body weight.

    “Our calculations are focused on human studies, but we see no reason to expect that these results would differ for other species given OT intranasally, like non-human primates, as long as the dose is adjusted for body weight.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given
    § Introduction

    Changes in research practices could increase the trustworthiness of the data.

    “Changes in research practices could increase the trustworthiness of the data.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given
    § Introduction

    Within the field of behavioral intranasal oxytocin studies in humans, there are several other examples of questionable practices including unjustified use of one-tailed tests and unexplained exclusion of outliers.

    “Within the field of behavioral IN-OT studies in humans, there are several other examples of questionable practices including the use of statistical methods, such as unjustified use of one-tailed tests and unexplained exclusion of outliers.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given
    § Introduction

    The estimated PPV values assume no influence of bias, meaning that the actual PPV values could be considerably lower.

    “However discouraging these estimated values might seem they assume no influence of bias, meaning that the actual PPV values could be considerably lower.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data
    § Introduction

    Reporting bias and multiple comparisons issues seem to be problems for studies of intranasal oxytocin.

    “Reporting bias and multiple comparisons issues seem to be problems for studies of IN-OT.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given
    § Introduction

    Increased confidence in data from clinical trials involving IN-OT would entice funding agencies and pharmaceutical companies to support more research in the field.

    “Increased confidence in data from clinical trials involving IN-OT would entice funding agencies and pharmaceutical companies to support more research in the field.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § Introduction

    If the 17% figure represents the true proportion of successful experiments, this would mean that almost all investigated hypotheses within these studies are true.

    “If this number represents the true proportion of successful experiments, this would mean that almost all investigated hypotheses within these studies are true.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Premisereasoning
    § Introduction

    When a research field is, to a large degree, exploratory, the pre-study odds decrease.

    “When a research field is, to a large degree, exploratory, the pre-study odds decrease.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given
    § Introduction

    Central injections will never be a common way to administer drugs in humans.

    “Central injections will for obvious reasons never be a common way to administer drugs in humans.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationcitation
    § Introduction

    From a statistical point of view this problem might not be any more serious for this field than other domains of psychology or neuroscience in general.

    “From a statistical point of view this problem might not be any more serious for this field than other domains of psychology (20, 21, 31) or neuroscience in general (14).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [20] Bakker, 2012, The rules of the game called psychological science, Perspect Psychol Sci source
    • cites [21] Pashler, 2012, Is the replicability crisis overblown? Three arguments examined, Perspect Psychol Sci source
    • cites [31] Bertamini, 2012, Bite-size science and its undesired side effects, Perspect Psychol Sci source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationcitation
    § Introduction

    The larger effect size for autism compared to all clinical studies could indicate that focusing on disorders characterized by deficits in social-communicative skills could produce reliable results.

    “However, the larger effect size for autism (d=0.57) compared to all clinical studies (d=0.32) could indicate that focusing on disorders characterized by deficits in social-communicative skills could produce reliable results.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
37 of 37
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The pre-study odds (R) for behavioral intranasal oxytocin studies in humans is considerably lower than for phase III clinical trials.

    “It seems reasonable however to assume that it is considerably lower than for phase III clinical trials.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The studies included in the meta-analyses are representative of the field of intranasal oxytocin studies.

    “If the studies included in the meta-analyses are representative of the field, statistical power values of 16% for studies investigating IN-OT effects in healthy subjects and 12% in clinical trials are certainly very low, but not very different from studies in neuroscience in general (average power = 21%) (14).”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Studying behavioral effects of oxytocin is at the moment a hot research topic, attracting many new research groups, and studies within this field have been published in very high impact journals such as Science and Nature.

    “Studying behavioral effects of OT is at the moment a hot research topic, attracting many new research groups, and studies within this field have been published in very high impact journals such as Science and Nature.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Nasal sprays purportedly containing oxytocin are available on the internet for a variety of indications.

    “Nasal sprays purportedly containing OT are available on the internet for a variety of indications”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Parents are increasingly seeking intranasal oxytocin as a therapy for their children with autism.

    “parents are increasingly seeking IN-OT as a therapy for their children with autism.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The 33 intranasal oxytocin papers published in 2014 are representative of the field of behavioral intranasal oxytocin studies.

    “We investigated to what extent low power is reflected in behavioral IN-OT studies by examining the proportion of positive effects published in 2014 (described in Supplemental information).”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    OT enhances the salience and reinforcing value of social stimuli in animals.

    “Research in animals suggest that OT enhances the salience and reinforcing value of social stimuli”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The vole partner preference test results with central OT/vasopressin manipulation are informative about human IN-OT effect sizes.

    “Specifically, we focused on vole studies using the partner preference test to assess behavior, a literature well known by the authors.”
    “these results indicate that larger effect sizes can be achieved by more efficient routes of administration.”
8 of 8

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • A recent meta-analysis demonstrated that most intranasal oxytocin studies are dramatically underpowered and report overestimated effects.

    “A recent meta-analysis of published studies involving IN-OT in humans (21) demonstrated that most studies are dramatically underpowered 1 and report overestimated effects.”

    From Is there a Publication Bias in Behavioural Intranasal Oxytocin Research on Humans? Opening the File Drawer of One Laboratory (2016) · cites this paper as [21]

    The Introduction reports that human IN-OT studies are considerably underpowered and that their reported effects have a high probability of being overestimated. The citing sentence presents overestimation as established fact, whereas the source states it as a probability. The paper also reanalyzes data from three existing meta-analyses rather than describing itself as a single meta-analysis. (LLM, conf=0.83)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • The absence of a convincing theoretical framework that predicts which moderators exert effects and when has raised skepticism about the robustness of human behavioral intranasal oxytocin research.

    “The lack of a convincing theoretical framework that allows to predict which moderators exert their effects and when, has raised healthy skepticism regarding the robustness of human behavioral IN-OT research (20,21).”

    From Is there a Publication Bias in Behavioural Intranasal Oxytocin Research on Humans? Opening the File Drawer of One Laboratory (2016) · cites this paper as [21]

    The Introduction says that human intranasal oxytocin research investigates a wide range of outcomes beyond what prior animal research can reasonably predict, and urges skepticism about individual findings. It does not specifically identify the absence of a framework predicting which moderators act and when as the reason for that skepticism. (LLM, conf=0.84)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • The meta-analysts estimated that the false discovery rate in the intranasal oxytocin literature is over 80%.

    “The meta-analysts estimated (using information on power, pre-study odds and the alpha level) that the false discovery rate in the IN-OT literature is over 80%.”

    From Is there a Publication Bias in Behavioural Intranasal Oxytocin Research on Humans? Opening the File Drawer of One Laboratory (2016) · cites this paper as [21]

    The Introduction estimates a positive predictive value of no more than 24% under one set of assumptions, implying a false-discovery proportion of at least 76%, not over 80%. It also gives a 17% positive predictive value—implying 83% false discoveries—but only for a scenario involving ten independent tests and selective reporting. The claim omits that condition and presents the over-80% figure as an estimate for the literature generally. (LLM, conf=0.87)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • The authors' studies, like most published intranasal oxytocin studies, might be underpowered.

    “our studies, like most published studies on IN-OT, might be underpowered (21).”
  • The use of too small samples and the vast amount of candidate moderators might inflate the false discovery rate unless direct replication and correction for multiple hypotheses are applied.

    “the use of too small samples (21) and the vast amount of candidate factors that could potentially moderate IN-OT's behavioral effects (19, 20) might inflate the false discovery rate unless direct replication efforts and correction for multiple hypotheses are applied.”

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • Healthy-subject and clinical-trial power values are reversed

    Minor

    The paper first assigns 16% average power to healthy-subject studies and 12% to clinical trials. Its description of Figure 3 assigns those values in the opposite order.

1 of 1

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

2 of the 51 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Walum, H., Waldman, I. D., & Young, L. J.
Affiliations
Emory University (US)
Corresponding author
Walum, Hasse
Venue
Biological Psychiatry
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2016-02
Volume
79
Issue
3
Pages
251-257
ISSN
0006-3223 (ISSN-L)
OpenAlex
W983974319
Cited by
345
References
51
Citations by year
2026: 13 · 2025: 17 · 2024: 13 · 2023: 16 · 2022: 20 · 2021: 33 · 2020: 33 · 2019: 37 · 2018: 42 · 2017: 53 · 2016: 39 · 2015: 16
FWCI
79.31
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Biological Psychiatry (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (submittedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • NIH (R01MH096983, 1P50MH100023)
  • NIH OD (P51OD11132)
  • Swedish Brain Foundation
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Psychology › Social Psychology › Neuroendocrine regulation and behavior
  • Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Sensory Systems › Olfactory and Sensory Function Studies
  • Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Psychology Research and Bibliometrics
Keywords
intranasal oxytocin, social behavior, social cognition, statistical power, publication bias, reproducibility, research reliability, social bonding
MeSH terms
Administration, Intranasal, Animals, Brain, Humans, Oxytocin, Research Design, Social Behavior, Statistics as Topic, Reproducibility of Results

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-08.

Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-08.

Cited sources are checked by gpt-6-sol.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

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