Predicting publication success for biologists
Abstract
Can one foresee whether young scientists will publish successfully during their careers? For academic biologists on four continents, we evaluated the effects of gender, native language, prestige of the institution at which they received their PhD, the date of their first publication (relative to the year of PhD completion), and their pre-PhD publication record as potential indicators of long-term publication success (10 years post-PhD). Pre-PhD publication success was the strongest correlate of long-term success. Gender, language, and the date of first publication had ancillary roles, with native English speakers, males, and those who published earlier in their career having minor advantages. Once these aspects were accounted for, university prestige had almost no discernable effect. We suggest that early publication success is vital for aspiring young scientists and that one of the easiest ways to identify rising stars is simply to find those who have published early and often.
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Employers and funders often count papers and weigh them by the journal's impact factor to assess a researcher's performance.
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- Authors
- Laurance, W. F., Useche, D. C., Laurance, S. G., & Bradshaw, C. J. A.
- Venue
- BioScience
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2013-10
- Volume
- 63
- Issue
- 10
- Pages
- 817-823
- ISSN
- 0006-3568 (ISSN-L)
- 1525-3244
- OpenAlex
- W1954988134
- Cited by
- 100
- References
- 34
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 6 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 11 · 2021: 8 · 2020: 13 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 9 · 2017: 9 · 2016: 7 · 2015: 12 · 2014: 8 · 2013: 1
- FWCI
- 10.30
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- BioScience (publishedVersion)
- ResearchOnline - JCU (James Cook University) (submittedVersion)
- BioOne Complete (BioOne) (submittedVersion)
- Adelaide Research & Scholarship (AR&S) (University of Adelaide) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Australian Research Council
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › scientometrics and bibliometrics research
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › History and Philosophy of Science › Academic Writing and Publishing
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Psychology Research and Bibliometrics
- Keywords
- publication success, early-career researchers, gender differences, mother tongue, English speakers, university prestige, career paths, rising stars
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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